The Uncertainty Principle: The DFA Daily 14th July 2021

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

In today’s show we unpick the latest US CPI numbers, check in on New Zealand Home prices in June, and also ask whether we are in a tech bubble 2.0 and whether NAB will acquire Citi’s Australian Banking Business.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live 8pm Sydney Tonight With Mortgage Broker Chris Bates

Join us for a live Q&A as I discuss the latest from the property market front line with mortgage broker Chris Bates from https://www.wealthful.com.au/our-story.

You can ask a question live via YouTube Chat.

https://walktheworld.com.au/ .

Seeking Safe Havens With Robert Kiyosaki

I caught up with Robert Kiyosaki to discuss the current state of the financial markets and the economy more broadly, We are, he says in a mega-bubble. That is clear. The burning question now is what to do though and that is way more complex.

We also touch on financial education in schools ahead of his new book.

Robert Toru Kiyosaki is an American businessman and author. Kiyosaki is the founder of Rich Global LLC and the Rich Dad Company, a private financial education company that provides personal finance and business education to people through books and videos. https://www.richdad.com/

He will be joining Harry Dent and myself in an upcoming free online seminar. Details and registration at http://robertandharry.com

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Negative Interest Rates May Become A Thing…

An important announcement from APRA today that Australian banks are mandated to prepare for negative interest rates.

https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-releases-consultation-to-adis-on-preparedness-for-zero-and-negative

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Who Breaks First The Economy Or Central Banks? – With Harry Dent

I caught up with Author and Economist Harry Dent. We picked apart the recent trends, and considered whether Central Banks will succeed in propping up the everything bubble, or whether the markets will finally see through their efforts, and crash, thus laying the foundations for a real boom later.

Please share this post to help to spread the word about the state of things….

Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

And you can catch Harry, Robert Kiyosaki and myself on a live joint seminar on July 20th onward via this link to register for free. https://gokogroup.com/financial-prophecy-summit/?orid=3&opid=13

Financial Stress To June 2021

The latest data from our running household surveys reveal that overall levels of household financial stress – measured in available cash flow, continues to trouble many households. Mortgage stress stands at 41.33% of households or 1.53 million households.

Overall financial stress (an aggregate of our stress metrics, weighted to all households) was highest at 45.4% in NSW, with 1.51 million households under pressure.

We continue to see many younger households who are highly leveraged into either buying their first home, or into property investment. Rental stress at 56.09% is highest among first generation Australians. Financial stress overall is highest among Young Growing Families.

Top mortgage stressed post codes (by number of households stressed) are concentrated in the high growth corridors of Melbourne, as well as regional centres such as Ballarat.

Rental stress is centred on areas of New South Wales, including in regional areas, including the South Coast and Central coast as well as high growth corridors, and some more central areas such as Bondi (2026) Central Sydney (2000) and Central Melbourne. Family formation is varied in different areas, from singles, through to larger family blocks.

Investor stress (defined as property investors who are under water from a cash-flow perspective, or who cannot let their property, or who are trying to sell) ranges from areas in Queensland around Surfers Paradise (4217) and Bunderberg (4670). Surry Hills in Sydney and Central Melbourne are also pressure points – with many vacant units, either unlet, or deeply discounted.

Overall financial stress registered most strongly in areas such as Mount Druitt (2770), central Melbourne (3000) and high growth suburbs including Cranbourne (3977) and Narre Warren (3805). But the stress patchwork is widespread across the country.

We discussed this data in our recent live show, including geo-mapping several areas to illustrate the findings.

The overall conclusion remains that the financial settings in Australia, with raging home prices, and high debt, against an uncertain economic outlook and made worse by recent lock-downs – is putting pressure on many households. This belies the “official narrative” the the recovery is booming.

We continue to see many households trying to get by using more credit (including Buy Now Pay Later) and draining savings for every day expenses. Many still do not maintain cash flow records, so are not clear about their real exposures.

Importantly, those with mortgage commitments who continue to struggle would do well to speak to their bank. Given continued flat income, the virus conditions in some suburbs, and other factors, we do not expect this to change ahead. Many are hoping for a magic bullet but in the current environment this is unlikely.

A HEX Rose Among Thorns?

I caught up with HEX advocate Jonno Katz. HEX is a token on the Etherium block chain, and it claims to be the First Blockchain Certificate Of Deposit. HEX has some interesting characteristics – though not straight forward on first blush.

We look at some of HEX’s features and also touch on the risks, and questions to ask.

As with all things financial related, its important to do you own research, and ensure you are dealing with people who are not pirates – as there are many out there.

And watch the fees! https://hex.com/

I am absolutely NOT endorsing HEX, to be clear and there is no commercial relationship here.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Banks Behaving Badly – Or Something More?

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Today we look at Wells Fargo’s jettison of personal lines of credit, and UK banks stopping customers transferring funds to crypto exchanges. It is an over reach – or is something else going on?

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Corporate Sustainability and Social License – “Words And Figures Differ”

Debates concerning the roles and purposes of corporations within society are longstanding. Some scholars and practitioners view shareholder returns as the primary or sole driver of company board and executive decisions. Others adopt a broader perspective because companies necessarily rely on, interact with, and impact other stakeholders such as employees, customers, and the broader community.

Corporate models that prioritise and encompass these broader stakeholder harms and impacts are referred to as, and reflected within, “corporate social responsibility” or “corporate sustainability” frameworks. When operating well, these frameworks require companies to publicly acknowledge and mitigate the societal harms caused by their activities. These models recognise that corporations are a legal creation, exist because of policy concessions, and require long term community support to continue to operate successfully.

Asbestos is a classic case study of the ability of companies to benefit from short-term profits, while socialising most of the longer-term harms.

This show, using information from Asbestos Awareness Australia, considers the continuing harms and externalities generated by the prior activities of James Hardie and CSR against the stated corporate sustainability and social license objectives and achievements of these publicly listed companies. We show that “words and figures differ”.

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Claims-Vs-Harms-8-July-2021-FINAL.pdf

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/