The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. On a number of issues the worm (see if you can spot her) is turning….
CONTENTS
0:00 Start 1:00 First Home Buyers Fall 3:58 Housing Affordability And Super 8:53 House Price Correction? 12:25 Overt Risk Taking 16:40 Bank Offering Commissions To Real Estate Agents 19:10 Vaccine Bungle And ScoMo 25:48 Australia Post New CEO! 26:40 Conclusions and Close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
On Tuesday the Public Hearings will be held in Canberra relating to the Holgate affair.
With 22 submissions received, and the issues on the table, we look at the overall arguments, and question the values exhibited by ScoMo.
This is much more than a question of watches for a few AP Executives, it is about the future of AP and the machinery of Government, which is currently on the blink….
I caught up with Salvatore Babones from the University of Sydney, who recently published on this interesting question. What if defence in our region is more about Policing, than it is about investing in the latest big-bang toys?
This is a replay of my latest interview on ABC Illawarra discussing the problematic relationships between local Steel businesses owned by the GFG Alliance, and its complex financial relationships with Greensill Capital, Credit Suisse and Citigroup in the light of recent court proceedings.
We need to ensure the local manufacturing capability is protected, to say nothing of some 6,000 jobs which could otherwise be at risk!
I discuss the latest research from Canstar with Steve Mickenbecker, their Group Executive, Financial Services & Chief Commentator. Seems some are thinking mortgage rates are set to rise – but how likely is that?
The latest results from our household surveys confirms that there are more households in financial stress than before the pandemic hit. As the various Government support mechanisms are ratcheted back, we will see the true impact on the community. Household debt is also turning higher again.
We have 41.1% of mortgaged households (1.5 million) in financial flow stress, despite the lower interest rate environment. While many have paid down debt, other have borrowed more. For example, the average new first time buyer loan is 15-18% larger than a year back- so much for the maintenance of lending standards!
We discussed this in detail in our live show, last night.
Across the states, the patterns are familiar, with Tasmania still reporting the highest proportion of households in mortgage stress thanks to low wages, and rising home prices. Victoria continues to be impacted by the longer lock-downs. Rental stress is being exacerbated by the end of tenant protections, so expect to see more evictions, and rent rises in the weeks ahead. Property investors in NSW are still having rental flow issues (due to high vacancies and lower rents). Overall financial stress – the aggregated measure across all households is highest in NSW, ACT and VIC.
Across our household segments young growing families, and those on the urban fringe in high growth corridors are being impacted, although across our segments and stress categories, it remains a real patchwork.
The top post codes for mortgage stress include Narre Warren and Fountain Gate, 3805 in Victoria, and Liverpool 2170 in NSW.
The top rental stress post codes include Liverpool 2170, NSW, Mount Druitt and Lethbridge Park 2770, NSW and Westmead 2145 NSW.
Investor stress is highest is St Kilda 3182, Westmead 2145 and Surfers Paradise 4217 in QLD.
Cumulative financial stress is highest in Liverpool 2170, Mount Druitt 2145, and Westmead 2145.
The mapping of mortgage stress to post codes reveals the potential hot spots, which include many of the high growth corridors, where vast estates continue to be built and sold to people who extend themselves to buy them. Many are first time buyers. Given flat wages, and higher unemployment post JobKeeper, this is one to watch.
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
ACT
Darwin
Whilst property prices are rising in many areas, the financial pressures on households are building, and we expect to see more casualties ahead. Financial stress can ultimately lead to significant social and behaviourial issues. Mortgage default rates (which are also rising) do not tell the full story.
