Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
As we finish our series on deep analysis of mortgages by LVR, DSR and LTI, we have incorporated the latest household survey data into our probability of mortgage default modelling by post code. The national average is 1.3%, but it rises to more than 3% in some places. We take the DSR, LTI and LVR … Continue reading “Probability of Mortgage Default – Latest Estimates in 3D”
From Australian Broker. Mortgage arrears increased across Australia in the June quarter, driven by conditions in regional markets. According to Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN), the global credit rating agency claims that prime Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions more than 30 days in arrears increased to 1.19% over the three months to June, … Continue reading “Mortgage arrears increase over June quarter”
Moody’s says Norway’s Proposed Tighter Mortgage Underwriting Standards Are Credit Positive for Banks and Covered Bonds. On 8 September, Norway’s Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) published a proposal for tighter mortgage underwriting limits. The proposed regulation, made to the Ministry of Finance, includes a limit of 5x loan value to the borrower’s gross income; requiring loans … Continue reading “Norway Tightens Mortgage Underwriting Standards”
Fitch Ratings has revised its UK housing and mortgage outlook from Stable/Positive to Stable in light of the UK’s referendum on leaving the EU, to reflect increased uncertainty around the UK housing market and economic fundamentals created by the vote. A Stable sector outlook will continue to support our Stable RMBS ratings Outlook. UK house … Continue reading “Brexit Uncertainty Dampens UK Housing & Mortgage Outlook”
Whilst Genworth, as one of the two independent Lender’s Mortgage Insurers in Australia, will have a skewed mortgage portfolio compared with the market (higher Loan-to-Value (LVR) loans which the banks prefer not to cover internally), we get a good feel for the market from their results today. Whilst the proportion of new loans with a … Continue reading “Genworth 1H16 Offers Mortgage Book Insights”
The UK Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) proposes to set out a revised approach to IRB risk weights for residential mortgage portfolios and guidance as to how firms model probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) for these exposures. The effect will be in some cases to lift the amount of capital held against … Continue reading “Bank of England Tightens IRB Mortgage Models”
According to Moody’s last Thursday, Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) notified the country’s regulated mortgage lenders that it will intensify its supervisory oversight of their residential mortgage underwriting practices. In the past 10 years home prices in Canada have lifted more than in Australia, although the debt to disposable income ratio … Continue reading “Canadian Regulators Ups The Ante On Residential Mortgage Lending”
The first stage of this year’s US bank stress tests highlights improving resilience with solid results despite a severely harsher scenario that included a more severe downturn than previous tests and negative short-term US Treasury rates, Fitch Ratings says. All 33 US bank holding companies passed the minimum capital ratio requirements. Tested firms overall generally … Continue reading “US Bank Stress Tests Highlight Improving Resilience – Fitch”
From The Advisor. The number of home loans in arrears continued to rise during the first quarter of 2016, with Western Australia topping the list. According to the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Performance Index, the percentage of prime mortgages more than 30 days in arrears increased to 1.13 per cent in the March quarter, up … Continue reading “WA Mortgage Borrowers Struggling Most”
From Business Insider. The mortgage arrears rate for Australian home owners is the highest it’s been in more than a year the latest Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Rating Services Mortgage Performance Index (SPIN) shows. That’s the fourth consecutive month in which arrears have risen and S&P said that the increase was across all loan types. … Continue reading “Mortgage Delinquencies Higher – S&P”