In the second part of our series on March 2024 results from our surveys, we deploy our mapping tools to display the hot spots across the country for mortgage, rental and investor stress, as well as defaults and net rental yields.
For a description of our approach, watch our earlier show here: So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch? https://youtu.be/xvE-jPsGQUk
On Tuesday at 8pm Sydney we will deep dive on the post code level analysis. DFA Live Q&A: A Deep Dive On Post Codes Feeling The Pinch https://youtube.com/live/GmSKvYYQI1k
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
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Last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell retained a cautious stance towards future rate cuts in a speech to the Stanford Graduate School of Business. “Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected,” he said, suggesting that the U.S. central bank will continue to study more data before starting a rate-cutting cycle.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a known hawk, said rates should likely not be reduced until the fourth quarter of this year, with only one cut likely in 2024. “We’ve seen inflation kind of become much and more bumpy,” Bostic said. “If the economy evolves as I expect, and that’s going to be seeing continued robustness in GDP and employment, and a slow decline in inflation over the course of the year, I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter.” But on Thursday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said rate cuts might not be required this year.
Then we got data on Friday showing US payrolls rose in March by the most in nearly a year and the unemployment rate dropped, pointing to a strong labor market that’s powering the economy. Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, with more people joining the workforce and able to find a job as participation rose.
Some are now seriously asking whether rates are high enough to quash inflation. A rate hike would really change the market dynamics. That said, Alice In Wonderland like, many analysts still seem to be wired into a rate cut soon.
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Banking is a game of confidence, in that if fears of a potential bank collapse arise, then naturally people who hold money at that institution will try to grab their cash, and run. The Global Financial Crisis, where many banks were saved by the use of public funds.
But this means taxpayers are on the hook, and so post the GFC, there were attempts to develop alternatives which would transfer risks from the tax-payers to other parties, including shareholders bond holders and even depositors of an affected bank. The so called bank resolution – or living will – includes the deposit bail-in regimes which were proposed (initially by merchant bankers by the way) and adopted by the G20 to allow deposits held at banks to be grabbed and converted to equity. This happened of course in Greece a few years later.
In the IMF Global Stability Report from October 2023, there was a section which highlighted that the March 2023 bank runs in Switzerland and the United States were unusually large and fast with their speed and size facilitated by rapid online deposit withdrawals and the rapid spread of worries among important groups of depositors via social media and other digital channels.
I am often asked if bail-in is a real risk to savers, and my reply remains the same. It’s a theoretical risk for sure, thanks to the likes of the IMF and others, but practically, its unlikely to be activated because the collateral damage would be enormous. But understand that those bankers who dreamed up bail-in and the QANGO’s who are pushing it, are still pushing Governments to give the financial regulators ever more power, never mind democracy. Its a cautionary tale of who is actually calling the shots, and the risks to democracy are real.
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Wherever you look, the news is not good for those wishing to see housing affordability relief.
First demand for rentals continues to be powered by the overseas influx. New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).
Or put it another way, the number of student visa holders in Australia is running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak, while the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak.
Then we can turn to the question of new housing supply. I have covered before the fact that the country is littered with half-completed construction projects, many of which are competing for labour and resources with the large number of government and commercial projects also currently running. This crowded out home builders as the major projects sucked in labour and drove up its cost.
But we also continue to see more building firms going under. In the light of this, perhaps we should not be surprised that the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
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An important discussion about the future of cash across Australia with Robbie Barwick from The Australian Citizens Party.
The CEO of CBA Matt Comyn floated the idea of limiting cash transactions to $500, so we pull this apart in the context of the Use Cash campaign which ran successfully on the 2nd April.
See my earlier show for detail of that campaign, and the Senate interrogation of the RBA which we also discuss. The Fight For Cash Just Got Terminally Serious! https://youtu.be/LiNSH7I_8xs
In today’s show we look at the latest from our surveys – how many households are really under financial pressure – because there are big differences between the “official” figures and those shown in other surveys, and data points, including the rise in calls to financial help lines and hardship supports.
This is the first in a series of shows, culminating with a live show on Tuesday 9th April 2024.
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This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen for our regular monthly look at what is going on across the markets, as many are reaching new highs, even as company returns are in question, and inflation is looking more sticky. Is a stock correction likely, and what does all this means for bonds and other asset classes?
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More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest property news, and also discuss dummy bidding, and how changes in China are impacting property here.
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Despite cash being legal tender in Australia, surprisingly it is legal for businesses to refuse to accept it provided that they inform consumers of their stance before any “contract” for the supply of goods or services is entered into.
The war on cash has taken an interesting turn, with the RBA being questioned by the Senate Inquiry into Regional Bank Branch closures, and claiming the use of cash had fallen, but frankly on thin and filtered evidence; while Armaguard, Australia’s only cash-in-transit business is facing the prospect of collapsing due to the claimed declining use of cash. The RBA, which regulates the payments industry and is responsible for printing money is also involved in the crisis talks.
And a social media campaign, led by the Cash is King Facebook group is calling on Aussies to withdraw and use cash next Tuesday, April 2, in protest against the shift to digital payments. The protest is aimed at showing Australia’s banks and retailers that there is still a demand for the use of cash in society. That is, if you can still find an ATM.
So, action on Tuesday to grab some cash could be an important step on the road to saving cash for All Australians who want to use it, despite pressure from the Government who is responding to huge pressure from the commercial banks. This in turn puts massive pressure on the current Senate review, who is scheduled to hold one more community hearing on Bribie Island on the 16th April. Will the committee who has laid bare the issues of branch closures and removal of cash come good or hook their final report like the earlier Royal Commission Inquiry into Financial Services, which exposed major issues through their hearings, only to turn to water in their final report and recommendations, which allowed the banks to behave business as usual. This time all eyes will be on the Senate.
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In a foreshortened trading week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, notching its best first-quarter performance since 2009 supported by the AI boom and as the rally broadened out beyond tech amid optimism on rate cuts coming soon and data signaling a soft landing for the US economy remains within in reach. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell very slightly. The index was up over 7% for the first quarter.
The S&P 500 benchmark index closed up 0.1 per cent to 5254.35; having touched an intraday high of 5264.85 midafternoon. The Dow advanced 0.1 per cent, losing early momentum for a run at 40,000. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 per cent.
But additional data including the core PCE inflation metric, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure came out on Holiday Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the biggest back-to-back gain in a year. Fourth-quarter core PCE inflation was revised slightly lower. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
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