Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog – Page 51

Pickled Brits Anyone?

Well, the slew of economic data in the past few days suggests the UK economy is in a bit of a pickle, with a mix of recessionary signals pulling against some more positive wages news (at least for some). And it highlights the dilemma facing many Central Banks, as their data dependency pulls them in multiple directions and highlights how complex the current environment actually is.

It seems the economy is losing steam, though that’s partly driven by industrial action and unusually wet weather but its tracking well below the Bank of England’s growth forecast for 3Q, and yet cost pressures in the UK are running too high for the central bank to be bounded by growth concerns just yet.

The latest data from the ONS showed that the UK economy shrank at the fastest pace in seven months in July as strikes and wet weather hit activity harder than expected, reviving fears that a recession may be under way.
Gross domestic product slipped by 0.5% following a 0.5% gain in June. Economists had expected a contraction of 0.2%. Services, construction and manufacturing all shrank.

The main cause of the contraction was the dominant services sector, which fell 0.5% in July. Cool and rainy weather depressing retail sales during the month. Output was also dented as doctors, teachers and rail staff walked off the job in their disputes with the government over pay.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the bulls in the market, silly bidding and vendors bids, and the latest “announcables” which will do very little to solve the housing disaster which awaits many.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Limitations Of Monetary Policy (And What Lowe Does Next…)

Last week, the departing RBA Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe used his final public comments given at the Anika Foundation to defend his more controversial comments, saying while some of his explanations had “missed the mark” the media also had a responsibility to avoid “clickbait”.

But he also highlighted the limitations of monetary policy and suggested that fiscal and monetary policy could be better connected than today, something which should have been considered by the recent RBA review.

So today we look at what he said, and will also touch on where Central Bank Governors go after they leave their post.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Will Inflation Come Roaring Back?

In recent months Central Banks have been able to say inflation was falling back towards their targets. But, this had little to do with their rate hiking cycle, and more to the adjustment in supply-side prices, especially energy. The so-called base effects where big lifts in inflation months ago dropped out helped the narrative. But the inflation battle is far from over.

This is because ahead the base effects will reverse. And then we must consider the recent spike in energy prices, plus higher wages flowing through to the services sector of the economy. So overall, I think it is likely that inflationary pressures will re-accelerate in the months ahead. In the US as oil and gasoline continue their upward trend, CPI could potentially rise back above 5.1%-5.5% by year-end. Therefore, inflation levels could remain elevated for a more extended duration than is presently anticipated by financial markets.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Work Till You Drop…

OK, so we know many households are under severe pressure, thanks to falling real incomes, rising inflation and of course interest rate payments. I covered this yesterday in the context of the latest GDP numbers, which on a GDP per capita basis were pretty frightful.

We have seen a record rise in cost-of-living for employee households, driven by soaring mortgage payments and rents, according to the ABS. Employee households’ living expenses increased by 9.6% in the year to June, which is significantly higher than the CPI inflation rate of 6%.

Since they are the ones who are carrying the majority of the mortgage debt, it is obvious that working Australians have taken the brunt of the RBA’s fight on inflation.

But is does beg the question, what levers do households have to try to regain some balance in their finances?

Well, of course there is the obvious one, make sure you have the lower rate on your mortgage and best rates on your savings – as I discussed a couple of days back. Many potentially can save by getting better rates, and we are talking potentially of thousands of dollars!

And make sure you know where you cash flow is going, so you can prioritise effectively, do you really need all those streaming services, and big mobile plans, for example.

The other lever though is just work harder, for more hours. And the recent ABS data showed the hours worked growing fast. But data released today from the ABS showed the number of people working multiple jobs and the percentage of employed people having more than one job reached record highs in the June quarter of 2023.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Households Have Nowhere To Hide!

Yesterday I went through the latest GDP outturn, and underscored the per-capita recession which is now in play across Australia.

Others see the same, with CBA’s economics team tipping that Australia would plunge deeper into a per capita recession as aggregate GDP growth falls below 1% while population growth remains above 2%:

They said that “Real GDP per capita declined by 0.3% in the quarter, following the same decline in Q1 23. Real GDP per capita is 0.6% below its peak in Q4 22 and 0.3% lower over the year”.

“Population growth has been much stronger than anticipated by policymakers. Working-age population has increased by 2.8%/yrin July. The increase in population is supporting overall GDP, but the economy is contracting on a per capita basis”.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.