Australia needs new insolvency laws to encourage small businesses

From The Conversation.

The Ten Network’s recent experience of voluntary administration and subsequent rescue by CBS demonstrates how insolvency law works for large Australian companies. But 97% of Australian businesses are small or medium size enterprises (SMEs), and they face a system that isn’t designed for them.

60% of small businesses cease trading within the first three years of operating. While not all close due to business failure, those that do tend to face an awkward insolvency regime that fails to meet their needs in the same way it does Network Ten.

The lack of an adequate insolvency regime for SMEs inhibits innovation and growth within our economy. It adds yet more complexity to the already difficult process of structuring a small business. Further, it inceases the cost of funding. Lenders know that recovering their money can be onerous if not impossible, so they impose higher costs of borrowing.

Australia’s insolvency regime

Australian insolvency law is divided into two streams, each governed by a separate piece of legislation.

The Corporations Act deals with the insolvency of incorporated organisations, and the Bankruptcy Act addresses the insolvency of people and unincorporated bodies (such as sole traders and partnerships).

Both schemes are aimed at providing an equal, fair and orderly process for the resolution of financial affairs. But a large part of the Corporations Act procedure has been developed with the complexity of a large corporation in mind. For example, there are extensive provisions that allow the resolution of disputes between creditors that are only likely to arise in well-resourced commercial entities.

The Bankruptcy Act, by contrast, takes account of the social and community dimensions of personal bankruptcy. This legislation seeks to supervise the activities of the bankrupted person for an extended period of time to encourage their rehabilitation.

SME’s awkwardly straddle the gap between these parallel pieces of legislation. Some SMEs are incorporated, and so fall under the Corporations Act. SMEs that are not incorporated are treated under the Bankruptcy Act as one aspect of the personal bankruptcy of the business owner. But of course, SMEs are neither people nor large corporations.

How insolvency works

Legislation governing corporate insolvency is founded on the assumption that there will be significant assets to be divided among many creditors. Broadly speaking, creditors are ranked and there are sophisticated and detailed provisions for their treatment. If Ten would have proceeded to liquidation, creditors would have been broadly grouped into three tiers and paid amounts well into the tens of millions.

One type of creditor is a “secured creditor”. Banks, for example, will often require that loans for the purchase of business equipment are secured against that equipment. In the event of default, the bank takes ownership of the equipment in place of the debt, if they can’t be paid out.

Unsecured creditors, on the other hand, do not have an “interest” over anything. If a company goes into liquidation, an unsecured creditor will only be paid if there are sufficient funds left after the secured creditors have been paid, and the cost of the process has been covered. There is no guarantee that unsecured creditors will be paid. Most often, they are only paid a portion of what they are owed.

The unique challenges of SME insolvency

When it comes to SMEs, there is little or no value available to lower-ranking, unsecured creditors in an SME insolvency estate. At the same time, higher-ranking, secured creditors tend to have effective methods of enforcing their interest outside the insolvency process. For instance they could individually sue the debtor to recover money owed. As a consequence, creditors are rarely interested in overseeing or pursing an SME insolvency process. This means the system is not often used and creditors with smaller claims go unpaid.

Even if creditors do want to use the insolvency process, it is likely the SME’s assets are insufficient to cover the cost of employing an insolvency practitioner and the required judicial oversight.

This problem is made worse because SMEs often wait too long to file for insolvency, owing to their lack of commercial experience or the social stigma of a failing business. Instead, debts continue to grow well beyond the point of insolvency, and responsibility falls on creditors to deal with the issue.

There are further difficulties depending on whether the SME is incorporated. Incorporated SMEs are frequently financed by a combination of corporate debt, taken on by the SME, and the personal debt of the business owner. This may result in complex and tedious dual insolvency proceedings: one for the bankruptcy of the owner and the other for the business.

Unincorporated SMEs, in turn, suffer from two stumbling blocks. First, the personal bankruptcy scheme has not been created to preserve the SME or encourage its turnaround. Second, personal bankruptcy proceedings require specific evidence that the person has committed an “act of bankruptcy”, such as not complying with the terms of a bankruptcy notice in the previous six months.

This hurdle makes the process far more time-consuming than the corporate scheme. It is also more difficult for creditors to succeed in recovering their investment and, by extension, prevents them from efficiently reallocating it. There is a real danger that this will deter creditors and raise the cost of capital at first instance.

What can we do about it?

The best way to meet the needs of SMEs would be to create a tailored scheme that sits between the corporate and personal regimes, as has been done in Japan and Korea. These regimes focus on speeding up the proceedings, moving the process out of court where possible and reducing the costs involved.

However, as the legislation in these two countries notes, there can be marked differences between small and medium-sized businesses that all fall under the SME banner. Therefore, what is needed is a flexible system made up of a core process, together with a large array of additional tools that may be invoked.

Designing such a scheme remains no easy feat. However, at its core, such a scheme would ideally allow business owners to commence the insolvency process and remain in control throughout. The process would sift through businesses to identify those that remain viable, and produce cost-effective means for their preservation.

Non-viable businesses would be swiftly disposed of, using pre-designed liquidation plans where possible and relying on court processes and professionals only where absolutely necessary. Creditors would therefore receive the highest return possible, and importantly, honest and cooperative business owners would be quickly freed from their failed business and able to return to economic life.

Authors: Kevin B Sobel-Read, Lecturer in Law and Anthropologist, University of Newcastle; Madeleine MacKenzie, Research assistant, Newcastle Law School, University of Newcastle

What The Removal Of ATM Fees Really Means

The CBA led move last weekend to abolish foreign ATM fees, which was quickly followed by the other majors and Suncorp is a benefit to those using other banks ATMs to withdraw cash, and will be especially welcome in regional and rural areas, where travel times to own branch machines tends to be extended.

We showed that the volume of cash withdrawals is decreasing.

ATMs are now a legacy banking artifact, to be managed not for strategic advantage (replacing more expensive branches) but to reduce costs, as it is being replaced by electronic payments, pay waive and mobile devices.

The timing, I suggest, rather than being a deliberate attempt to distract from the BEAR proposals which were released by the Government a couple of days before; is more an outworking of recent discussions, centered on driving more cost savings from the ATM system.  The fact is ATMs are expensive animals to service, not so much from the technology point of view, but because the cash cartridges need to be physically replenished, which requires a small army of security guards, vans, and a supply of fresh notes. Remote ATMs are especially costly to service. Many are outsourced.

We examined the Point of Presence Data from APRA which includes counts of ATMs, listed by bank, and other provider.  This annual report is helpful when exploring distribution strategy, though the format will be changed this coming edition. We have data to 2016.

It shows that between 2014 and 2016 there was a 3.5% fall in the number of ATMs operating, with a total count of 14,293. We lost net, net around 500 machines in 2 years.

We then looked at the major banks, and Suncorp. Suncorp was responsible for a net 152 reduction, followed by Westpac 88 and ANZ 43. NAB grew their fleet by 45 and CBA by 7.

The state by state data shows that Queensland lost the most machines, down 165, then NSW 118, WA 98 and SA 76.  By bank, CBA, NAB and ANZ grew their footprint in NSW, while WBC and Suncorp cut machines significantly there.

Now, the point of all of this is that given falling transaction volumes, we expect the number of ATMs to continue to fall.  The removal of “foreign” ATMS fees allows consumers to use any ATM within reach. As a result, banks can with some justification say that therefore multiple ATMs in a location are no longer required. As a result I expect a rush of closures, with the aim of not being the “last man standing” effectively holding the community service obligation in a given area.

So, in my view the ATM fee story is more about managing down legacy systems and costs than providing customer benefit.  Think of it as a utility service.  The Banks should consider formalising this in my view!

You could argue, provided you can still get cash, you may not care, but of course if there is a single machine in town, it is also a point of single failure, especially over a long weekend!

As always, there is more behind the PR than first appears….

 

 

 

 

 

Suncorp Lifts Interest Only Loan Rates

From Australian Broker.

Suncorp has today announced it is introducing new pricing methodology for interest only home lending.

Banking & wealth CEO David Carter said the bank currently calculated interest only rates based on the purpose of the loan, but would now also take into account the type of loan repayment.

“Currently, our interest only home lending is priced at the same rate as principal and interest home lending, however following recent changes in the market we have made changes to our systems to differentiate between borrowers repaying interest only, and those repaying principal and interest,” Carter said.

“This change is important as it will ensure the bank can maintain its position relative to regulatory requirements.

“With the market having effectively repriced interest only lending, and with some lenders having opted out of certain aspects of the market, it’s important for us to also support the focus on this type of lending.

“We are writing to customers this week to advise them of this change and the new interest only rates, which will come into effect on 1 November, 2017.

“As recently announced, we have launched a number of special offers, as well as reductions to some of our fixed rates, giving customers greater choice if they are wanting to move to a principal and interest product, and customers asking to switch will not be charged a fee for doing so.”

Suncorp says it recognises that increases in interest rates have an impact on customers with rate increases that remain below most other lenders. Variable interest rates on existing owner-occupier interest only rates will increase by 0.10% p.a and variable interest rates on all investor interest only rates will increase 0.38% p.a., effective 1 November, 2017.

Despite the changes, Suncorp says that its rates remain highly competitive with the majority of customers continuing to pay rates well below the headline, due to the various features and benefits of the bank’s products.

Variable interest rates on existing principal and interest owner-occupier and investor rates remain unchanged. Pricing for interest only construction loans also remain unchanged.

The Disconnect Between Unemployment and Wages

There is an assumption that as employment rates and growth picks up,  the much needed wage growth will follow. We discussed this on ABC’s The Business last week, with HSBC’s Chief Economist who held the view that the RBA won’t lift the cash rate here until wages growth comes through. We were not so sure.

But an interesting piece from the The IMFBlog suggests there are more fundamental forces at work, especially in terms of employment patterns and the rise of part-time work, which suggests that unemployment and wage growth is more disconnected now. We think underemployment is one of the most critical drives of wage stagnation. If this is true, then wages may be lower for longer, which is not good news for those households with heavy debt burdens, especially if rates rise. We release our September analysis of mortgage stress next week. Here is the IMF commentary:

Over the past three years, labor markets in many advanced economies have shown increasing signs of healing from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Yet, despite falling unemployment rates, wage growth has been subdued–raising a vexing question: Why isn’t a higher demand for workers driving up pay?

Our research in the October 2017 World Economic Outlook sheds light on the sources of subdued nominal wage growth in advanced economies since the Great Recession.  Understanding the drivers of the disconnect between unemployment and wages is important not only for macroeconomic policy, but also for prospects of reducing income inequality and enhancing workers’ security.

Job growth picked up, wage growth less so

In many cases, employment growth has picked up and headline unemployment rates are now back to their pre-Great Recession ranges. Still, nominal wage growth remains well below where it was prior to the recession. Sluggish wages may reflect deliberate efforts to slow down wage growth from unsustainably high levels, as was the case with some countries in Europe. But the pattern is more widespread.

There are several factors at play in explaining this pattern, both cyclical and structural – or slow-moving – in nature.

A key cyclical factor is labor market slack – that is, the excess supply of labor beyond the amount that firms would like to employ.

First off, however, it is important to recognize that headline unemployment rates may not be as indicative of labor market slack as they used to be. Hours per worker have continued to decline (extending a trend that began before the Great Recession).

Several countries have also experienced higher rates of involuntary part-time employment (workers employed for less than 30 hours per week who report they would like to work longer) and an increased share of temporary employment contracts These developments in part reflect continued weak demand for labor (itself a reflection of weak final demand for goods and services).

Another key driver of wage growth is the widely-recognized slowdown in trend productivity growth. Sustained weakness in output per hour worked can squeeze business profitability and eventually weigh on wage growth as firms becomes less willing to accommodate fast increases in compensation.

Slower-moving factors

Besides these forces, slower-moving factors such as ongoing automation (proxied by the falling relative price of investment goods) and diminished medium-term growth expectations also appear to hold back wage growth. However, our analysis suggests that automation may not have made a large contribution to subdued wage dynamics following the Great Recession.

The analysis also indicates sizable common global factors behind wage weakness in the aftermath of the Great Recession and especially during 2014–16. In other words, labor market conditions in other countries appear to have a growing effect on wage setting in any given economy. This points to the possible roles of the threat of plant relocation across borders, or an increase in the effective worldwide supply of labor in a context of closer international economic integration.

Putting it all together

The relative roles of labor market slack and productivity growth vary across countries. In economies where unemployment rates are still appreciably above their averages before the Great Recession (such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain), high unemployment can explain about half of the slowdown in nominal wage growth since 2007, with involuntary part-time employment acting as a further drag on wages. Wage growth is therefore unlikely to pick up until slack diminishes meaningfully—an outcome that requires continued accommodative policies to boost aggregate demand.

In economies where unemployment rates are below their averages before the Great Recession (such as Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom), slow productivity growth can account for about two-thirds of the slowdown in nominal wage growth since 2007. Even here, however, involuntary part-time employment appears to be weighing on wage growth, suggesting greater slack in the labor market than headline unemployment rates capture. Assessing the true degree of slack in these economies will be important when determining the appropriate pace of exit from accommodative monetary policies.

Broader changes in the labor market

Our research further indicates that sluggish wage growth has occurred in a context of broader changes in the labor market. The increase in involuntary part-time employment itself, for example, is in part explained by cyclically-weak demand.  Accommodative policies that help lift aggregate demand would therefore lower involuntary part-time employment. But it is also associated with slower-moving factors such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations, and the growing importance of the service sector.

Some of these developments represent persistent changes in relationships between firms and workers that mirror underlying shifts in the economy – with the emergence of the gig economy and shrinkage of traditional sectors such as manufacturing. Policymakers may therefore need to enhance efforts to address the vulnerabilities that part-time workers face. Examples of possible measures include broadening minimum wage coverage where it does not currently include part-time workers; securing parity with full-time workers by extending pro-rated annual, family, and sick leave; and strengthening secondary and tertiary education to upgrade skills over the longer term.

NZ Holds Official Cash Rate 1.75 percent

The New Zealand Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.

Global economic growth has continued to improve in recent quarters. However, inflation and wage outcomes remain subdued across the advanced economies and challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity. Bond yields are low, credit spreads have narrowed and equity prices are near record levels.  Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Statement.  A lower New Zealand dollar would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.

GDP in the June quarter grew in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous two quarters.  While exports recovered, construction was weaker than expected.  Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade, and fiscal stimulus.

House price inflation continues to moderate due to loan-to-value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints, and a tightening in credit conditions. This moderation is expected to continue, although there remains a risk of resurgence in prices given population growth and resource constraints in the construction sector.

Annual CPI inflation eased in the June quarter, but remains within the target range. Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters, reflecting volatility in tradables inflation.  Non-tradables inflation remains moderate but is expected to increase gradually as capacity pressure increases, bringing headline inflation to the midpoint of the target range over the medium term.  Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at around two percent.

Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.

A Floor Under Property Price Falls

The ABS today released March 2017 demographic statistics, which shows that natural population growth is being dwarfed by net overseas migration. All these new households will need somewhere to live, so they be competing with existing residents for property, both in the rental sector, and for purchase. This is likely to put a floor under property demand and so home prices.

Bottom line, there is a strong link between home prices and population growth.  So, one lever which should be considered to take the sting out of the property cycle is to reduce net migration. Politically speaking, this appears unlikely as a “big Australia” strategy lays behind much of current public discourse.

The ABS says that the preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 March 2017 was 24,511,800 people. This is an increase of 389,100 people since 31 March 2016, and 126,100 people since 31 December 2016.

Within that, the preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2017 (142,400 people) was 5.8%, or 8,800 people lower than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 31 March 2016 (151,300 people).

The preliminary estimate of net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 31 March 2017 (231,900 people) was 26.9%, or 49,100 people higher than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 31 March 2016 (182,800 people).

Significantly, the state with the highest growth rate was Victoria, which is currently seeing the strongest auction clearance rates, strong demand, and home price growth. This is not a surprise, given the high migration

The ABS says Australia’s population grew by 1.6% during the year ended 31 March 2017. Natural increase and NOM contributed 36.6% and 59.6% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 31 March 2017 with intercensal difference accounting for the remainder. All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 March 2017. Victoria recorded the highest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.4%. The Northern Territory recorded the lowest growth rate at 0.1%.

 

RACQ Launches Regional Bank

From Australian Broker.

Motoring association and mutual organisation Royal Automobile Club of Queensland (RACQ) has launched the RACQ Bank brand, opening 13 branches across the state.

Unveiled 25 September, the bank will provide personal banking products including mortgages to RACQ’s 1.6 million members.

“We’re committed to giving members honest, easy and great value banking products and services, without any hidden fees or excessive charges,” said RACQ group CEO Ian Gillespie.

“We’re also one of Queensland’s last remaining mutual banks, and we are working for our members not for shareholders. Any profits the bank makes will be reinvested back into the RACQ ecosystem for the benefit of our members here in Queensland.”

In the first step of the bank’s expansion strategy, home loans will be offered through direct channels, RACQ Bank CEO Steve Targett told Australian Broker.

Targett was the former CEO of QT Mutual Bank, eventually becoming CEO of RACQ Bank after it acquired QT Mutual in November 2016.

“QT Mutual was a lot smaller. We had about 67,000 members. RACQ has got 1.6 million so the first step of our strategy is to penetrate that member base with personal banking products – the main one of which is mortgages,” he said. “Then we’ll look at the next step of our strategy in terms of penetrating our member base and cross-selling products.”

The bank will consider working with brokers at a later stage once these initial phases are completed, he added.

“It’s on our critical path of things to look at but not in the next six months. At some stage, it’s something that we’ve got to look at and will probably be one of the next things once we feel we’ve got our basic capabilities right.”

The bank’s main products – residential mortgages, car loans and personal loans – will be distributed across Queensland through RACQ Bank’s 13 branches and RACQ’s 34 stores.

“We need to look at providing some sort of banking capability out of some of RACQ’s stores particularly in areas where we don’t have branches. There are quite a few RACQ members up the seaboard between the Sunshine Coast and Townsville. We’ve got some stores there but we don’t have any bank branches. These are things that we need to look at.”

Building a team of mobile lenders was also on the agenda so that banking products could be offered to customers in remote locations, Targett said.

RACQ Bank’s loans will be funded directly through its equity such as transaction accounts and term deposits. The bank can also access wholesale funds through negotiable certificates of deposit or medium-term notes and can draw additional capital through RACQ itself.

Suncorp removes ATM fees

Suncorp will remove fees for all non-Suncorp customers so that no  customer pays an ATM fee anywhere in Australia.

Suncorp Executive General Manager Deposits & Investments, Bruce Rush says the change will deliver greater value to all banking customers while increasing the availability of fee-free ATMs across the country.

“Suncorp supports fee-free ATMs and we will implement this change in early December to coincide with other positive changes, including updating technology and enhancing customer experience which is already planned for our ATM network,” Mr Rush said.

“It is great to see all Australians benefit and we are especially pleased for Suncorp customers who live in locations where there are limited options to withdraw cash.”

Excessive Credit Main Cause Of Personal Insolvencies

New data from the Australian Financial Security Authority shows that in 2016–17, the most common non-business related causes of debtors entering personal insolvencies were:

  • excessive use of credit (8,870 debtors)
  • unemployment or loss of income (8,035 debtors)
  • domestic discord or relationship breakdown (3,222 debtors).

However, employment related issues figured first in WA and SA. Here is an extract from their report:

Non-business related causes of personal insolvencies, 2016–17

Non-business related causes of personal insolvencies 2016–17

While these were the three most common causes of debtors entering non-business related personal insolvencies in every financial year from 2007–08 to 2015–16, excessive use of credit overtook unemployment or loss of income as the single most common cause in 2016–17.

Non-business related debt agreements have increased since 2007–08

The shift towards excessive use of credit is associated with the growing number and proportion of debt agreement personal insolvencies year by year (both at a record level in the June quarter 2017; see personal insolvency statistics and business and non-business statistics for further information). In the period from 2007–08 to 2016–17, debt agreements have increased from 22.9% of non-business related personal insolvencies to 50.1%. In non-business related debt agreements, excessive use of credit has been the most common cause in every year since 2011–12.

Bankruptcies comprised 49.2% of non-business related personal insolvencies in 2016–17, and personal insolvency agreements comprised 0.7%.

The most common non-business related causes of personal insolvencies are similar for all states and territories

In 2016–17, excessive use of credit was the most common non-business case of new personal insolvencies in Australia. This was also the most common cause in 2016–17 in all states and territories except Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Unemployment or loss of income was the most common cause in Western Australia and South Australia. In Tasmania, an equal number of debtors entered into personal insolvencies due to excessive use of credit and unemployment or loss of income. In all cases (as for Australia), the third most common cause was domestic discord or relationship breakdown.

State or territory Most common non-business cause Number of new debtors % total new debtors in a non-business related personal insolvency
New South Wales Excessive use of credit 2,660 36.4%
Australian Capital Territory Excessive use of credit 126 37.6%
Victoria Excessive use of credit 1,696 35.5%
Queensland Excessive use of credit 2,627 35.4%
South Australia Unemployment or loss of income 530 33.8%
Northern Territory Excessive use of credit 104 41.3%
Western Australia Unemployment or loss of income 994 35.8%
Tasmania Excessive use of credit / Unemployment or loss of income 217 34.0%
Australia** Excessive use of credit 8,870 35.2%

*Includes other and unknown state or territory

Most debtors entering non-business related personal insolvencies are male

In 2016–17, 13.3% more men than women entered new non-business related personal insolvencies. This disparity extended across most non-business related causes of personal insolvency. The cause with the highest sex ratio (that is, the ratio of men to women in the debtor population) was gambling or speculation (2.3). More women than men cited ill health and domestic discord or relationship breakdown as causes of new non-business related personal insolvencies (sex ratios of 0.9 and 0.7 respectively).

Non-business related causes by sex, 2016–17*

Main non-business related cause of personal insolvency Number of male debtors Number of female debtors
Excessive use of credit 4,566 4,299
Unemployment or loss of income 4,311 3,707
Domestic discord or relationship breakdown 1,376 1,843
Ill health 874 950
Gambling or speculation 363 161
Adverse legal action 238 148
Liabilities due to guarantees 132 100
Other non-business reason or unknown 1,519 602
Total 13,379 11,810

*Excludes records where debtors did not disclose their sex.

The median age of debtors entering non-business related personal insolvencies varies by cause

In 2016–17, the highest median age of debtors entering new non-business related personal insolvencies was among those who cited the causes adverse legal action and liabilities due to guarantees (both 46 years). Those who cited excessive use of credit had the lowest median age of 36 years. The median age of all new debtors entering non-business related personal insolvencies was 38.

Median age of debtors entering non-business related personal insolvencies in 2016–17 by cause, Australia

Main non-business related reason for entering a personal insolvency Median age of new debtors*, 2016–17 (years)
Adverse legal action 46
Liabilities due to guarantees 46
Ill health 43
Gambling or speculation 40
Domestic discord or relationship breakdown 38
Unemployment or loss of income 37
Excessive use of credit 36
Total 38

*Where an age was recorded

 

The Trading Up and Trading Down Imbalance

Just rounding out our analysis of households and their property buying inventions, having looked at investors and first time buyers we now turn to those seeking to trade up (sell their current property and buy bigger) and those trading down (sell their current property and buy smaller).

Those trading up are driven by expectations of greater capital growth (42%), for more space, 27%, life-style change (14%) and job change (11%).

Those seeking to trade down are driven by the desire to release capital for retirement (37%), to move to a place which is more convenient (either location, or for easier maintenance) (31%), or a desire to switch to, or invest in an investment property (18%).

In the past we saw a relative balance between those seeking to trade up and those seeking to trade down, but this is now changing.

Intention to transact, highlights that relatively more down traders are expecting to transact in the next year, compared with up traders.

Given that there around 1.2 million Down Traders and around 800,000 Up Traders, we think there will be more seeking to sell, than buyers able to buy. As a result, this will provide a further drag on future price growth, especially in the middle and upper segments of the markets, where first time buyers are less likely to transact. This simple demand/supply curve provides another reason why prices may soon pass their peaks. Up Traders have more reason to delay, while Down Traders are seeking to extract capital, and as a result they have more of a burning platform.

This analysis will be taken further in the next edition of the Property Imperative, due out in a month or so. Meantime, you can still get the April 2017 edition.