RBA Says Housing Credit Still Growing

The latest RBA data on credit, to August 2017 tells a somewhat different story to the APRA data we discussed already. There were clearly adjustments in the system [CBA in particular?]  and the non-bank sector is picking up some of the slack.

Overall housing credit rose 0.5% in August, and 6.6% year-ended August 2017. Personal credit fell again, down 0.2%, and 1.1% on a 12 month basis. Business credit also rose 0.5%, or 4.5% on annual basis. But overall lending for housing is still growing.

Here are the month on month (seasonally adjusted) movements. Owner occupied lending up $17.5 billion (0.68%), investment lending up $0.8 billion (0.14%), personal credit down $0.4 billion (-0.24%) and business lending up $4.2 billion or 0.47%.

As a result, the proportion of credit for housing (owner occupied and investor) still grew as a proportion of all lending.

Another $1.7 billion of loans were reclassified in the month. This will give an impression of greater slowing investment loan growth as a result.

Following the introduction of an interest rate differential between housing loans to investors and owner-occupiers in mid-2015, a number of borrowers have changed the purpose of their existing loan; the net value of switching of loan purpose from investor to owner-occupier is estimated to have been $58 billion over the period of July 2015 to August 2017, of which $1.7 billion occurred in August 2017. These changes are reflected in the level of owner-occupier and investor credit outstanding. However, growth rates for these series have been adjusted to remove the effect of loan purpose changes.

Bank Mortgage Lending Falls

The latest data from APRA, the monthly banking stats to August 2017 shows the first overall fall in the value of mortgage loans held by the banks, for some time, so the macroprudential intervention can be said to be working – finally – perhaps! Or it could be more about the continued loan reclassification?

Overall the value of mortgage portfolio fell 0.11% to $1.57 trillion. Within that owner occupied lending rose 0.1% to $1.02 trillion while investment lending fell 0.54% to $550 billion. As a result, the proportion of loans for investment purposes fell to 34.93%.

This explains all the discounts and special offers we have been tracking in the past few weeks, as banks become more desperate to grow their books in a falling market.

Here are the monthly growth trends.

Portfolio movements across the banks were quite marked. There may be further switches, but we wont know until the RBA data comes out, and then only at an aggregate level. We suspect CBA did some switching…

The loan shares still show Westpac the largest lender on investor mortgages and CBA leading the pack on owner occupied loans.

All the majors are below the 10% investor loan speed limit.

So the question will be, have the non-bank sector picked up the slack? In fact the RBA says $1.7 billion of loans were switched in the month. This probably explains only some of the net fall.

 

More than 30,000 of the nation’s ‘richest’ households in financial distress

From The Australian Financial Review.

More than 30,000 households in the nation’s wealthiest suburbs are facing financial stress, with hundreds risking default over the next 12 months because of soaring debts and static incomes, according to analysis of the nation’s household financial hotspots.

Hundreds of households in Sydney’s harbourside Vaucluse, where the median property price is $4.5 million, or Melbourne’s bayside Brighton, where a median priced house is $2.6 million, are being severely squeezed as costs continue to stretch incomes, the Digital Finance Analytics research finds.

“A lot of people making seriously good money have borrowed serious amounts of money. The one thing that sorts them out is when interest rates begin to rise,” said Christopher Koren, a buyers’ agent for Morrell and Koren, which specialises in top-end real estate.

“When it comes to top-end household cash flow – ‘Houston, we have a problem’,” said Martin North, principal of Digital Finance Analytics, who claims lenders are making incorrect assumptions about household incomes rising to meet increasing costs.

The analysis reveals that nearly 1000 households in Brighton, where a beachbox without electricity sells for more than ...The analysis reveals that nearly 1000 households in Brighton, where a beachbox without electricity sells for more than $320,000, are under distress, or could face default in the next 12 months. Joe Armao, Fairfax Media.

The Reserve Bank of Australia this week warned property buyers stretching to enter the property market when interest rates are at record lows could be “vulnerable” to economic shocks, such as rate rises or a change in personal circumstances.

The bank’s research shows that debt for the nation’s top 20 per cent of households is at least 190 per cent of income, an increase of more than 50 per cent in the 12 years to 2014, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia numbers.

Brendan Coates, Australian Perspective Fellow for the Grattan Institute, said top-end debt is likely to have risen even higher during the past three years.

By contrast, debt for the bottom 20 per cent has remained at 60 per cent of total income.

Mr North said: “The banks have been very free in their lending to affluent households.”

Higher end is more exposed

It is based on traditional lending models that indicate lower income earners and the mortgage belt property buyers are the most vulnerable if rates rise, or the economy slows.

“But they have missed the point that massive leverage at the top end, static incomes and the high proportion of affluent households with interest-only loans means the higher end are significantly more exposed,” he said.

“A lot also have multiple households. Because rents are based on incomes, are lot of these investments are under water, which means they are losing money,” he said.

According to SQM Research, which monitors rents and house prices, the national average rental income for apartments is about 1.4 per cent and 2 per cent for houses, compared to 2 per cent inflation and interest rates typically about 4.5 per cent for investor loans.

Some investors, particularly from Sydney, are selling up, releasing capital and buying cheaper investment properties, in places like Adelaide, according to market analysts.

A median property in Sydney’s metropolitan area, which sells for about $1 million, will buy two inner suburban properties in Adelaide.

Households are ‘stressed’ when income does not cover ongoing costs, rather than identifying a percentage of income committed to mortgage repayments, such as 30 per cent of after-tax income.

Those in “severe distress” are unable to meet repayments from current income, which means they have to cut back on spending, or rely on credit, refinancing, loan restructuring, or selling their house.

Mortgage holders under “severe distress” are more likely to seek hardship assistance and are often forced to sell.

The analysis reveals that nearly 1000 households in Brighton, where a beachbox without electricity sells for more than $320,000, are under distress, or could face default in the next 12 months.

More than 600 households in Vaucluse and Watsons Bay are under similar pressure.

RBA assistant governor Michele Bullock said regulators remain concerned about the high level of household debt, which is a result of low interest rates and rising house prices.

“High levels of debt do leave households vulnerable to shocks,” she said.

Mr Coates said rich households having the most debt provided some comfort for regulators comparing Australia’s potential vulnerability to an economic shock with the US, where those most exposed were poorer, sub-prime borrowers.

“The RBA is less worried because people who hold the debt are relatively well off,” Mr Coates said.

Anecdotal evidence suggests top-end earners are increasing their spending at the same pace as rising property prices.

“Many in Melbourne and Sydney think they are bullet proof,” said Mr Koren. “They’ve bought property in premium suburbs in the best performing markets in the world and they suddenly think they are always making money, despite earning the same amount of pay”.

Across the nation, more than 860,000 households are estimated to be in mortgage stress, with more than 20,000 in severe stress, or a rise of about 1 per cent to about 26 per cent to the end of August, the analysis finds.

About 46,000 are estimated to risk default, it finds.

Borrowers in the dark over rising rates

From The Advisor.

A mortgage market analyst has said that he is “astonished” that banks don’t tell borrowers how much their repayments will be if rates were to rise.

More than half of borrowers have no clue what impact a 2 per cent rate rise will have on their home loan, according to Digital Finance Analytics principal Martin North.

“One of the things I’m amazed about is lenders don’t actually tell people what their repayments will be if rates were to rise by 2 or 3 per cent — in other words, back to normal levels,” Mr North told The Adviser.

“They do the calculations because of serviceability buffers, but that is not disclosed to consumers,” the principal said, adding that borrowers have very little “feel” of how their mortgages will behave in a rising interest rate environment.

“My research suggests that only half of them have a budget and know what they are spending. If you ask them what the effect of a 2 per cent rate rise will be on their mortgage, more than half have no idea.”

Mr North’s comments come amid growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin lifting the cash rate from next year. High levels of household debt are a chief concern for the RBA as it looks to tighten monetary policy.

Last week, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe warned that in the current environment, “household spending could be quite sensitive to increases in interest rates”.

DFA’s Martin North explained that on a $100,000 mortgage, a 25 basis point rate rise equates to about $30 more a month on mortgage repayments.

“On a million-dollar mortgage, you can see that even a small interest rate rise is a huge cash cost each month.”

His comments come as new figures show that a concerning number of property investors are unaware of how they will be effected by lending changes.

The 2017 PIPA Annual Investor Sentiment Survey, released this week, found evidence of mortgage stress among investors moving from interest-only (IO) to principal and interest (P&I) mortgages.

PIPA chair Ben Kingsley said that there are a few worrying figures that reflect a level of uncertainty among investors when it comes to finance.

“We did see some evidence of lending fatigue in terms of investors that have been forced to stop borrowing,” Mr Kingsley told The Adviser.

While the majority of investors with interest-only (IO) loans said that they won’t struggle to meet the new principal and interest (P&I) repayments once their current IO period expired, 12 per cent said that they would.

“I was a little bit worried that 12 per cent said if their loans switched to P&I they would struggle,” Mr Kingsley said.

“What was even more interesting to me was that 20 per cent were unsure. I would like to think that many investors should know what is important to them.”

Mortgage Customer Satisfaction – Go Small!

The latest data shows that customers of the smaller mortgage lenders are significantly more likely to be satisfied than those using the big four.  And overall the smaller players are hitting the high note in terms of service compared with their larger competitors, with mortgages leading the way.

According to Roy Morgan Research, customer satisfaction with Bendigo Bank in August 2017 was 89.3%, making it the top performer among the ten largest consumer banks. Not only was Bendigo the satisfaction leader but it improved it’s rating over the month by 0.9% points, against an overall decline of 0.2% points for banks in total.

Smaller banks lead in customer satisfaction

Not only does Bendigo Bank lead in customer satisfaction among the major ten banks with 89.3% but it was followed by other small banks such as ING Direct with 86.7%, Bank of Queensland (84.2%), Suncorp (83.0%) and St George (82.0%). The best performer among the four majors was the CBA with 80.2%, followed by Westpac on 78.5%, NAB (78.4%) and ANZ (77.3%). The overall average satisfaction for all banks was 80.8% in August.

Consumer Banking Satisfaction August 2017 - 10 Largest Consumer Banks1 
1. Based on customer numbers 2. Include banks not shown Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 6 months ended July 2017, n= 26,184; 6 months ended August 2017, n= 26,119. Base: Australians 14+
 

Over the last month the major banks to show improved satisfaction were Bendigo Bank (up 0.9% points), Bank of Queensland (up 0.7% points), Suncorp (up 0.5% points), Westpac (up 0.4% points) and NAB (up 0.1% point). The biggest drop in satisfaction was by ING Direct (down 1.2% points) but they remained in clear second place overall.

Low satisfaction among mortgage customers of the big four banks reduce their overall satisfaction

The mortgage customers of each of the big four banks continue to be a drag on their overall satisfaction, despite historically low home-loan rates. Over the last month, satisfaction among the big four’s home-loan customers has fallen marginally further behind their other customers with a decline of 0.4% points to 75.7%, compared to a drop of only 0.1% points for non home-loan customers (to 79.8%).

Satisfaction of Mortgage and Non-Mortgage Customers August 2017 - 10 Largest Consumer Banks1
1. Based on customer numbers Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 6 months ended July 2017, n= 26,184; 6 months ended August 2017, n= 26,119. Base: Australians 14+

Bendigo Bank has the highest home-loan customer satisfaction (of the top 10) with 96.3%, followed by Bank of Queensland with 93.6%. These two remain well ahead of their major competitors, with the next best being ING Direct (86.8%). The CBA has the highest home-loan customer satisfaction of the big four with 77.4% (down 0.7% points over the last month), followed by NAB on 75.4% (up 1.6% points).

Australia needs new insolvency laws to encourage small businesses

From The Conversation.

The Ten Network’s recent experience of voluntary administration and subsequent rescue by CBS demonstrates how insolvency law works for large Australian companies. But 97% of Australian businesses are small or medium size enterprises (SMEs), and they face a system that isn’t designed for them.

60% of small businesses cease trading within the first three years of operating. While not all close due to business failure, those that do tend to face an awkward insolvency regime that fails to meet their needs in the same way it does Network Ten.

The lack of an adequate insolvency regime for SMEs inhibits innovation and growth within our economy. It adds yet more complexity to the already difficult process of structuring a small business. Further, it inceases the cost of funding. Lenders know that recovering their money can be onerous if not impossible, so they impose higher costs of borrowing.

Australia’s insolvency regime

Australian insolvency law is divided into two streams, each governed by a separate piece of legislation.

The Corporations Act deals with the insolvency of incorporated organisations, and the Bankruptcy Act addresses the insolvency of people and unincorporated bodies (such as sole traders and partnerships).

Both schemes are aimed at providing an equal, fair and orderly process for the resolution of financial affairs. But a large part of the Corporations Act procedure has been developed with the complexity of a large corporation in mind. For example, there are extensive provisions that allow the resolution of disputes between creditors that are only likely to arise in well-resourced commercial entities.

The Bankruptcy Act, by contrast, takes account of the social and community dimensions of personal bankruptcy. This legislation seeks to supervise the activities of the bankrupted person for an extended period of time to encourage their rehabilitation.

SME’s awkwardly straddle the gap between these parallel pieces of legislation. Some SMEs are incorporated, and so fall under the Corporations Act. SMEs that are not incorporated are treated under the Bankruptcy Act as one aspect of the personal bankruptcy of the business owner. But of course, SMEs are neither people nor large corporations.

How insolvency works

Legislation governing corporate insolvency is founded on the assumption that there will be significant assets to be divided among many creditors. Broadly speaking, creditors are ranked and there are sophisticated and detailed provisions for their treatment. If Ten would have proceeded to liquidation, creditors would have been broadly grouped into three tiers and paid amounts well into the tens of millions.

One type of creditor is a “secured creditor”. Banks, for example, will often require that loans for the purchase of business equipment are secured against that equipment. In the event of default, the bank takes ownership of the equipment in place of the debt, if they can’t be paid out.

Unsecured creditors, on the other hand, do not have an “interest” over anything. If a company goes into liquidation, an unsecured creditor will only be paid if there are sufficient funds left after the secured creditors have been paid, and the cost of the process has been covered. There is no guarantee that unsecured creditors will be paid. Most often, they are only paid a portion of what they are owed.

The unique challenges of SME insolvency

When it comes to SMEs, there is little or no value available to lower-ranking, unsecured creditors in an SME insolvency estate. At the same time, higher-ranking, secured creditors tend to have effective methods of enforcing their interest outside the insolvency process. For instance they could individually sue the debtor to recover money owed. As a consequence, creditors are rarely interested in overseeing or pursing an SME insolvency process. This means the system is not often used and creditors with smaller claims go unpaid.

Even if creditors do want to use the insolvency process, it is likely the SME’s assets are insufficient to cover the cost of employing an insolvency practitioner and the required judicial oversight.

This problem is made worse because SMEs often wait too long to file for insolvency, owing to their lack of commercial experience or the social stigma of a failing business. Instead, debts continue to grow well beyond the point of insolvency, and responsibility falls on creditors to deal with the issue.

There are further difficulties depending on whether the SME is incorporated. Incorporated SMEs are frequently financed by a combination of corporate debt, taken on by the SME, and the personal debt of the business owner. This may result in complex and tedious dual insolvency proceedings: one for the bankruptcy of the owner and the other for the business.

Unincorporated SMEs, in turn, suffer from two stumbling blocks. First, the personal bankruptcy scheme has not been created to preserve the SME or encourage its turnaround. Second, personal bankruptcy proceedings require specific evidence that the person has committed an “act of bankruptcy”, such as not complying with the terms of a bankruptcy notice in the previous six months.

This hurdle makes the process far more time-consuming than the corporate scheme. It is also more difficult for creditors to succeed in recovering their investment and, by extension, prevents them from efficiently reallocating it. There is a real danger that this will deter creditors and raise the cost of capital at first instance.

What can we do about it?

The best way to meet the needs of SMEs would be to create a tailored scheme that sits between the corporate and personal regimes, as has been done in Japan and Korea. These regimes focus on speeding up the proceedings, moving the process out of court where possible and reducing the costs involved.

However, as the legislation in these two countries notes, there can be marked differences between small and medium-sized businesses that all fall under the SME banner. Therefore, what is needed is a flexible system made up of a core process, together with a large array of additional tools that may be invoked.

Designing such a scheme remains no easy feat. However, at its core, such a scheme would ideally allow business owners to commence the insolvency process and remain in control throughout. The process would sift through businesses to identify those that remain viable, and produce cost-effective means for their preservation.

Non-viable businesses would be swiftly disposed of, using pre-designed liquidation plans where possible and relying on court processes and professionals only where absolutely necessary. Creditors would therefore receive the highest return possible, and importantly, honest and cooperative business owners would be quickly freed from their failed business and able to return to economic life.

Authors: Kevin B Sobel-Read, Lecturer in Law and Anthropologist, University of Newcastle; Madeleine MacKenzie, Research assistant, Newcastle Law School, University of Newcastle

What The Removal Of ATM Fees Really Means

The CBA led move last weekend to abolish foreign ATM fees, which was quickly followed by the other majors and Suncorp is a benefit to those using other banks ATMs to withdraw cash, and will be especially welcome in regional and rural areas, where travel times to own branch machines tends to be extended.

We showed that the volume of cash withdrawals is decreasing.

ATMs are now a legacy banking artifact, to be managed not for strategic advantage (replacing more expensive branches) but to reduce costs, as it is being replaced by electronic payments, pay waive and mobile devices.

The timing, I suggest, rather than being a deliberate attempt to distract from the BEAR proposals which were released by the Government a couple of days before; is more an outworking of recent discussions, centered on driving more cost savings from the ATM system.  The fact is ATMs are expensive animals to service, not so much from the technology point of view, but because the cash cartridges need to be physically replenished, which requires a small army of security guards, vans, and a supply of fresh notes. Remote ATMs are especially costly to service. Many are outsourced.

We examined the Point of Presence Data from APRA which includes counts of ATMs, listed by bank, and other provider.  This annual report is helpful when exploring distribution strategy, though the format will be changed this coming edition. We have data to 2016.

It shows that between 2014 and 2016 there was a 3.5% fall in the number of ATMs operating, with a total count of 14,293. We lost net, net around 500 machines in 2 years.

We then looked at the major banks, and Suncorp. Suncorp was responsible for a net 152 reduction, followed by Westpac 88 and ANZ 43. NAB grew their fleet by 45 and CBA by 7.

The state by state data shows that Queensland lost the most machines, down 165, then NSW 118, WA 98 and SA 76.  By bank, CBA, NAB and ANZ grew their footprint in NSW, while WBC and Suncorp cut machines significantly there.

Now, the point of all of this is that given falling transaction volumes, we expect the number of ATMs to continue to fall.  The removal of “foreign” ATMS fees allows consumers to use any ATM within reach. As a result, banks can with some justification say that therefore multiple ATMs in a location are no longer required. As a result I expect a rush of closures, with the aim of not being the “last man standing” effectively holding the community service obligation in a given area.

So, in my view the ATM fee story is more about managing down legacy systems and costs than providing customer benefit.  Think of it as a utility service.  The Banks should consider formalising this in my view!

You could argue, provided you can still get cash, you may not care, but of course if there is a single machine in town, it is also a point of single failure, especially over a long weekend!

As always, there is more behind the PR than first appears….

 

 

 

 

 

Suncorp Lifts Interest Only Loan Rates

From Australian Broker.

Suncorp has today announced it is introducing new pricing methodology for interest only home lending.

Banking & wealth CEO David Carter said the bank currently calculated interest only rates based on the purpose of the loan, but would now also take into account the type of loan repayment.

“Currently, our interest only home lending is priced at the same rate as principal and interest home lending, however following recent changes in the market we have made changes to our systems to differentiate between borrowers repaying interest only, and those repaying principal and interest,” Carter said.

“This change is important as it will ensure the bank can maintain its position relative to regulatory requirements.

“With the market having effectively repriced interest only lending, and with some lenders having opted out of certain aspects of the market, it’s important for us to also support the focus on this type of lending.

“We are writing to customers this week to advise them of this change and the new interest only rates, which will come into effect on 1 November, 2017.

“As recently announced, we have launched a number of special offers, as well as reductions to some of our fixed rates, giving customers greater choice if they are wanting to move to a principal and interest product, and customers asking to switch will not be charged a fee for doing so.”

Suncorp says it recognises that increases in interest rates have an impact on customers with rate increases that remain below most other lenders. Variable interest rates on existing owner-occupier interest only rates will increase by 0.10% p.a and variable interest rates on all investor interest only rates will increase 0.38% p.a., effective 1 November, 2017.

Despite the changes, Suncorp says that its rates remain highly competitive with the majority of customers continuing to pay rates well below the headline, due to the various features and benefits of the bank’s products.

Variable interest rates on existing principal and interest owner-occupier and investor rates remain unchanged. Pricing for interest only construction loans also remain unchanged.

The Disconnect Between Unemployment and Wages

There is an assumption that as employment rates and growth picks up,  the much needed wage growth will follow. We discussed this on ABC’s The Business last week, with HSBC’s Chief Economist who held the view that the RBA won’t lift the cash rate here until wages growth comes through. We were not so sure.

But an interesting piece from the The IMFBlog suggests there are more fundamental forces at work, especially in terms of employment patterns and the rise of part-time work, which suggests that unemployment and wage growth is more disconnected now. We think underemployment is one of the most critical drives of wage stagnation. If this is true, then wages may be lower for longer, which is not good news for those households with heavy debt burdens, especially if rates rise. We release our September analysis of mortgage stress next week. Here is the IMF commentary:

Over the past three years, labor markets in many advanced economies have shown increasing signs of healing from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Yet, despite falling unemployment rates, wage growth has been subdued–raising a vexing question: Why isn’t a higher demand for workers driving up pay?

Our research in the October 2017 World Economic Outlook sheds light on the sources of subdued nominal wage growth in advanced economies since the Great Recession.  Understanding the drivers of the disconnect between unemployment and wages is important not only for macroeconomic policy, but also for prospects of reducing income inequality and enhancing workers’ security.

Job growth picked up, wage growth less so

In many cases, employment growth has picked up and headline unemployment rates are now back to their pre-Great Recession ranges. Still, nominal wage growth remains well below where it was prior to the recession. Sluggish wages may reflect deliberate efforts to slow down wage growth from unsustainably high levels, as was the case with some countries in Europe. But the pattern is more widespread.

There are several factors at play in explaining this pattern, both cyclical and structural – or slow-moving – in nature.

A key cyclical factor is labor market slack – that is, the excess supply of labor beyond the amount that firms would like to employ.

First off, however, it is important to recognize that headline unemployment rates may not be as indicative of labor market slack as they used to be. Hours per worker have continued to decline (extending a trend that began before the Great Recession).

Several countries have also experienced higher rates of involuntary part-time employment (workers employed for less than 30 hours per week who report they would like to work longer) and an increased share of temporary employment contracts These developments in part reflect continued weak demand for labor (itself a reflection of weak final demand for goods and services).

Another key driver of wage growth is the widely-recognized slowdown in trend productivity growth. Sustained weakness in output per hour worked can squeeze business profitability and eventually weigh on wage growth as firms becomes less willing to accommodate fast increases in compensation.

Slower-moving factors

Besides these forces, slower-moving factors such as ongoing automation (proxied by the falling relative price of investment goods) and diminished medium-term growth expectations also appear to hold back wage growth. However, our analysis suggests that automation may not have made a large contribution to subdued wage dynamics following the Great Recession.

The analysis also indicates sizable common global factors behind wage weakness in the aftermath of the Great Recession and especially during 2014–16. In other words, labor market conditions in other countries appear to have a growing effect on wage setting in any given economy. This points to the possible roles of the threat of plant relocation across borders, or an increase in the effective worldwide supply of labor in a context of closer international economic integration.

Putting it all together

The relative roles of labor market slack and productivity growth vary across countries. In economies where unemployment rates are still appreciably above their averages before the Great Recession (such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain), high unemployment can explain about half of the slowdown in nominal wage growth since 2007, with involuntary part-time employment acting as a further drag on wages. Wage growth is therefore unlikely to pick up until slack diminishes meaningfully—an outcome that requires continued accommodative policies to boost aggregate demand.

In economies where unemployment rates are below their averages before the Great Recession (such as Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom), slow productivity growth can account for about two-thirds of the slowdown in nominal wage growth since 2007. Even here, however, involuntary part-time employment appears to be weighing on wage growth, suggesting greater slack in the labor market than headline unemployment rates capture. Assessing the true degree of slack in these economies will be important when determining the appropriate pace of exit from accommodative monetary policies.

Broader changes in the labor market

Our research further indicates that sluggish wage growth has occurred in a context of broader changes in the labor market. The increase in involuntary part-time employment itself, for example, is in part explained by cyclically-weak demand.  Accommodative policies that help lift aggregate demand would therefore lower involuntary part-time employment. But it is also associated with slower-moving factors such as automation, diminished medium-term growth expectations, and the growing importance of the service sector.

Some of these developments represent persistent changes in relationships between firms and workers that mirror underlying shifts in the economy – with the emergence of the gig economy and shrinkage of traditional sectors such as manufacturing. Policymakers may therefore need to enhance efforts to address the vulnerabilities that part-time workers face. Examples of possible measures include broadening minimum wage coverage where it does not currently include part-time workers; securing parity with full-time workers by extending pro-rated annual, family, and sick leave; and strengthening secondary and tertiary education to upgrade skills over the longer term.

NZ Holds Official Cash Rate 1.75 percent

The New Zealand Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.

Global economic growth has continued to improve in recent quarters. However, inflation and wage outcomes remain subdued across the advanced economies and challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity. Bond yields are low, credit spreads have narrowed and equity prices are near record levels.  Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Statement.  A lower New Zealand dollar would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.

GDP in the June quarter grew in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous two quarters.  While exports recovered, construction was weaker than expected.  Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade, and fiscal stimulus.

House price inflation continues to moderate due to loan-to-value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints, and a tightening in credit conditions. This moderation is expected to continue, although there remains a risk of resurgence in prices given population growth and resource constraints in the construction sector.

Annual CPI inflation eased in the June quarter, but remains within the target range. Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters, reflecting volatility in tradables inflation.  Non-tradables inflation remains moderate but is expected to increase gradually as capacity pressure increases, bringing headline inflation to the midpoint of the target range over the medium term.  Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at around two percent.

Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.