Macquarie launches ‘open banking’ regime

From InvestorDaily.

Macquarie has agreed to make its application programming interface (API) available to third party developers – a move that has so far been resisted by every other major bank. Open Banking has the potential to drive significant customer benefits, but may also lead to digital disruption.

Macquarie has launched its new ‘open banking platform’, which the bank says will give customers “control over the everyday banking data” as well as “the power to securely manage how they want to share it”.

As part of announcement, Macquarie will now give “approved” third party providers access to its API via the bank’s open developer portal and test sandbox, called devXchange.

“While consumers typically need to reveal their banking login details to use budgeting tools and similar services, Macquarie’s open platform means customers will never need to give their login details to a third party, creating a more secure way to access these services,” said a statement by the bank.

“Macquarie’s open platform also gives customers the power to manage access to their data in real time through the Macquarie banking app. Authorised third party providers will have read only access to that customer’s data through a secure token which then reads the data from Macquarie’s systems,” said the bank.

Macquarie head of personal banking Ben Perham said, “Our customers have been telling us they want to securely connect their information into their favourite accounting software, budgeting app and other innovative services they’re interested in. Macquarie’s open platform will make this possible.

“We’ve built a highly personalised digital banking experience, so empowering our customers to securely manage how they want to use their own data is the logical next step.

“APIs are being used by leading digital companies like Amazon and Google to transform consumer experiences, and we’re excited about the opportunities the technology will bring to financial services.

“We’re looking forward to working with third party providers and developers to drive new and more personalised solutions for our customers that tie in seamlessly with daily life.”

Volumes Rise Across the Combined Capital Cities Returning a Preliminary Clearance Rate of 70.3%

From CoreLogic.

There were 2,490 auctions held across the combined capital cities this week, up from 2,258 last week, making it the busiest week for auctions since the beginning of June. Based on preliminary results, the combined capital city clearance rate was recorded at 70.3 per cent this week, up from 66.9 per cent last week, although this will likely revise lower over the next few days as the remaining results are collected. Over the corresponding week last year, auction volumes were lower, with 2,149 properties taken to auction and a clearance rate of 76.2 per cent was recorded. Melbourne had the highest number of auctions this week, with 1,268 auctions held, and a higher preliminary clearance rate week-on-week (73.6 per cent), while the highest preliminary clearance rate was recorded in Adelaide (75.0 per cent across 72 reported auctions).

2017-09-18--auctionresultscombinedcapitals

An affordable housing own goal for Scott Morrison

From The New Daily.

There was considerable shock on Friday when Treasurer Scott Morrison announced legislation that could block billions of dollars of new housing supply – bizarrely enough, in the name of ‘affordable housing’.

Property developers are aghast at Mr Morrison’s draft legislation, because although they see it as giving a small leg-up to the community housing sector, they think it will block literally billions of dollars in investment in mainstream rental dwellings.

Both measures relate to an established way of bringing together large pools of money from institutions or wealthy individuals as ‘managed investment trusts’ (MITs).

Mr Morrison’s draft law is offering MITs a 60 per cent capital gains tax discount for investing in developments run by recognised ‘community housing providers’, rather than the normal 50 per cent discount.

But at the same time the legislation bans MITs from investing in all other residential developments.

The reason that has shocked property developers is that they have been anticipating for some time that MITs would play a major role in the emerging ‘build-to-rent’ housing market.

Two types of build-to-rent

There is some confusion around the term ‘build-to-rent’ at present, because it is being used to describe two quite different kinds of housing, both of which are booming in the UK and US.

The first is a straightforward commercial proposition. A developer might build a 100-dwelling development – be it townhouses, low-rise apartments, or high-rise flats – but instead of selling off each home to speculators or owner-occupiers, it retains ownership and rents them out directly.

The second variation is similar, but involves government subsidies and the input of community housing providers, to keep rents low.

That model, being championed by the likes of shadow housing minister Doug Cameron, would connect large investors such as local super funds or overseas pension funds, with long-term investments that provide secure, good-quality rental properties to lower-income Australians.

So when you read the term ‘build-to-let’, have a look at who is using it – it could mean fancy apartments with swimming pools, gyms or other communal facilities, or just decent housing that cash-strapped people can afford.

A fatal contradiction

What’s so surprising about Mr Morrison’s two new measures, is that they appear to work against each other.

One is trying to push rents down for low-income groups squeezed out of the mainstream market, but the other looks to crimp supply in the mainstream market and thereby push rents up.

That would be a big mistake, because both kinds of new dwellings are needed as our increasingly dysfunctional capital cities look for ways to ‘retro-fit’ sprawling suburbs with higher-density housing.

For many years now I have complained that the housing market didn’t have to get to this point – negative gearing and the capital gains tax breaks that have helped push home ownership out of reach of many Australians should have been reined in years ago.

But they were not, and the market, and the economy more generally, has become dangerously unbalanced by the housing credit bubble that those tax breaks created.

If that imbalance is successfully unwound – by wages catching up to house prices – it will be a small miracle, but it will also take a long time.

In the meantime, increasing housing supply in the right areas of our capital cities is a good way to keep a lid on prices, albeit rents rather then purchase prices – though an abundance of good rental properties can lower those, too.

That is what Mr Morrison’s draft legislation is jeopardising.

Labor, as you might expect, has slammed the ban on MIT investments, which shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says “has completely ambushed the property and construction sector”.

Much rarer, is for the Treasurer to be at odds with the Property Council – the lobby group he worked for between 1989 and 1995.

But it has also been scathing of the change.

It said on Friday: “The answer to Australia’s housing problem is more supply. Build to rent has the potential to harness new investment that could deliver tens of thousands of new homes and provide a greater diversity of choice for renters.

“… the unintended consequence of the draft legislation is to completely close down the capacity for Managed Investment Trusts (MITs) to invest in build to rental accommodation. This risks stalling build-to-rent before it starts.”

Given that kind of opposition, it’s hard to see the MIT investment ban becoming law – or if it did, the government that put such a ban in place ever living it down.

Inflation Has Become “The Lodestar” For Central Banks

The September 2017 Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review says that the combination of a stronger outlook plus low inflation spurs risk-taking. But the quest for the “missing inflation” has become the focus.

Low inflation despite a stronger economic outlook helped push markets up in recent months and reduced the expected pace of tightening of monetary policy in major economies. Signs of increased risk-taking have become apparent in a number of areas, including narrow credit spreads, increased carry trade activity and looser bond covenants.

“All this puts a premium on understanding the ‘missing inflation’, because inflation is the lodestar for central banks,” said Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department.

The September 2017 issue of the Quarterly Review:

  • Shows a pickup in the growth of international debt securities in the first half of 2017, when total stocks rose to $22.7 trillion. The outstanding stock of securities issued by banks grew at its fastest pace in six years.

  • Calculates that credit-to-GDP ratios remained well above trend levels for a number of jurisdictions, often coinciding with wide property price gaps. Demand from projects financed by property developers may play a role.
  • Reviews the doubling in outstanding government debt of emerging market economies since 2007, to $11.7 trillion at end-2016. Government debt rose from 41% to 51% of GDP over the same period. Emerging market government borrowing is mostly at longer maturities, at fixed rates and in local currencies, and its pattern increasingly resembles that of advanced economies.

  • Reports on new data initiatives aimed at assessing the exposure of economies to foreign currency risk. From now on, the BIS will regularly publish a currency breakdown of cross-border loans and deposits. Bank loans can be added to debt securities to estimate the build-up of total foreign currency debt. Country-level estimates of total US dollar, euro and yen credit provide a better gauge of foreign currency indebtedness of borrowers in a given country and its vulnerability to currency fluctuations. The BIS is also releasing new data series on monetary policy rates and exchange rates.

Special features look at topical issues in global markets and economics:

  • Claudio Borio, Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire (BIS)* analyse the amount of debt incurred by borrowing through FX swaps and forwards, a missing element in assessments of financial stability risk. The authors estimate the size, distribution and use of this missing debt, and assess its implications for financial stability. The off-balance sheet dollars owed by non-banks outside the United States may exceed their $10.7 trillion of on-balance sheet dollar debt (as of Q1 2017). The missing debt is secured with foreign currency, is mostly short-term and is likely to generally serve as a hedge for FX exposures in cash flows and on balance sheets. But rolling over short-term hedges of long-term assets can still spark or amplify funding and liquidity problems during periods of stress.
    “This research is the first to put a number on the amount of dollar debt missing from balance sheets and fills in a gap in our understanding of liquidity risk posed by financial firms operating across different currencies,” said Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research.
  • Morten Bech (BIS) and Rodney Garratt (UCSB) outline how central banks might create and use blockchain-based digital currencies. They identify two types of such potential central bank cryptocurrencies, one for consumers and the other for large-value payments, and compare them with existing payment options.
  • Codruta Boar, Leonardo Gambacorta, Giovanni Lombardo and Luiz Pereira da Silva (BIS) find that countries which frequently use macroprudential tools have tended to have higher and more stable economic growth rates. On the other hand, ad hoc interventions could hurt growth.
  • Torsten Ehlers and Frank Packer (BIS) argue that more consistent standards for green bonds could help develop the market for instruments to finance investments with environmental or climate-related benefits. Although there is some evidence that investors have paid a premium on average at issuance for certified green bonds, the bonds have not generally underperformed conventional ones in the secondary market.

HashChing Launches New GroupBuy Solution

Two years after launching its online mortgage broking platform, HashChing says it is shaking up the home loans industry once again with a new GroupBuy solution. They claim the potential savings are huge by flipping the usual power dynamic of a bank and borrower. Customers join a group with similar lending requirements (such as refinancing an existing home loan), and participating banks and lenders bid against each other to win that group’s combined home loan portfolio.

With Australians paying an average 4.55 per cent discounted variable rate on owner-occupied properties, HashChing CEO Mandeep Sodhi said customers could stand to save at least $80,000 off their mortgages by refinancing through GroupBuy.

“We expect lenders to match or beat the interest rates that are currently being offered through HashChing partner mortgage brokers, which currently start from 3.59 per cent. Based on an average loan size of $500,000, borrowers can stand to save a significant amount of money.

“HashChing GroupBuy is a revolutionary and exciting new way for borrowers to tap into the collective bargaining power of a group, enabling them to get a better interest rate on their existing home loan using an online wizard that takes less than 10 minutes to complete, provided you have your paperwork ready. “For less than 10 minutes of your time, you could potentially save $80,000 over the life of your home loan,” said Mandeep Sodhi, CEO of HashChing. Jobs NSW, a government backed initiative that aims to make the NSW economy as competitive as possible, has recognised the innovation behind GroupBuy with a $100,000 funding grant.

GroupBuy is free and simple to use. Borrowers sign up through the dedicated GroupBuy portal on the HashChing website and confirm their interest in a particular campaign. Campaigns group borrowers with similar loan requirements together.

Campaigns will have strict eligibility criteria, such as refinance of owner-occupied properties only with a minimum borrowing of $500,000 per applicant and a minimum credit score.

Once each campaign is full, HashChing’s panel of lenders bid for the group of loans, giving the borrowers access to a range of low and below market offers. Borrowers are able to select the most appealing loan offer, and the chosen lender then gets in touch with each borrower separately to finalise the home loan.

Borrowers who drop out of the campaign at any point will be connected with a local partner broker, who can provide them with a personalised service for negotiating a better home loan rate at no cost.

HashChing will also use key learnings from the rollout of GroupBuy to create a deeper understanding of customer usage patterns – the end goal being to connect customers with brokers at the precise moment they need assistance, with enough information captured for broker to have a meaningful conversation. HashChing will initially conduct a GroupBuy Pilot for six weeks with four lender partners – Gateway Credit Union, Pepper Money, Switzer and MortgageEzy – and offer campaigns to consumers looking to refinance their home. Upon completion of the pilot HashChing will increase the participating lenders and consumer campaigns.

Gateway CEO, Paul Thomas, highlighted the synergy between the two organisations as a key driver for the partnership. “Partnering with fintechs such as HashChing is all about helping to create a more dynamic, innovative and competitive industry. Taking part in this group buying initiative is exciting because it allows us to help pioneer a unique customer experience. It’s the perfect way for us to further strengthen our commitment to fintech partnerships and differentiate from the big banks, while showcasing our benefits as a customer owned bank that always looks to empower the customer,” said Mr Thomas.

Aaron Milburn, Pepper Money’s director of sales & distribution, said: “Pepper Money is always looking for ways to maximise a customer’s access to finance. That’s why we partner with a variety of introducers, such as HashChing, who are using innovative methods like GroupBuy to increase a customer’s finance options.”

Peter James, CEO of Mortgage Ezy, said: “Mortgage Ezy is thrilled to partner with HashChing as a strong advocate for brokers. As one of the last truly independent non-banks in Australia, we relish the opportunity to continue to give the banks a run for their money.”

Marty Switzer, CEO of Switzer GroupBuy, said: “Mortgage stress is a stark reality for one in four mortgaged households, and there’s a strong likelihood of rates rising even further. A simple increase of half a per cent would boost the number of mortgage stressed households to a whopping one in three. As an industry, we need to be looking at ways we can relieve the financial pressure on over-stretched households. HashChing has taken this challenge by the horns with its innovative GroupBuy product, and I’m excited to be a part of it.

Since launching in August 2015, HashChing has received more than $10 billion worth of home loan applications, helped upwards of 18,000 customers find a better deal on their home loan, and boasts an expansive network of more than 600 verified brokers. “We are very pleased to be working with a dedicated group of lenders given the current discontent consumers feel towards the major lenders, especially during continual periods of out of cycle rate changes,” said Mr Sodhi. “For too long now, mortgage borrowers have felt powerless against the big four banks and other major financial institutions, who continue to hike up interest rates against a climate of high household debt and stagnate wage growth.

“HashChing GroupBuy puts the power back in their hands by having banks and lenders come to them and try to win their business. We believe this will be an incredibly satisfying and empowering experience, and we’re looking forward to making this publicly available in the near future.

Blockchain Prototype Is Credit Positive for P&C Insurers and Reinsurers

The Blockchain Insurance Industry Initiative (B3i) has unveiled a prototype application that streamlines contracts between insurers and reinsurers using blockchain technology according to Moody’s. Once the technology becomes mainstream, they expect that it will significantly reduce policy management expenses and speed up claims settlement for insurers and reinsurers, a credit positive.

B3i’s application gives insurers, reinsurers and brokers a shared view of policy data and documentation in real time.

Blockchain’s shared digital ledger has the potential to increase the speed and reduce the friction costs of reinsurance contract placements. Reinsurers would use the common platform to streamline claims analysis, potentially reducing significantly their administration and management costs.

Blockchain technology is a chain of blocks of encrypted data that form an append-only database of transactions. Each block contains a record of transactions among multiple parties, each of which has real-time access to a shared database. As a block is encrypted with a link to the previous block, it cannot be altered, except by unencrypting and amending all subsequent blocks.

PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that blockchain technology will reduce reinsurer non-commission expenses by 15%-25%, including data processing efficiencies and reduced chance of overpayment because of data errors. For illustrative purposes, the exhibit below shows the potential effect on annual pre-tax earnings for some of the world’s top reinsurance companies, all of which are included in the B3i consortium. We also expect the technology to decrease the time between primary insurance claim and reinsurance reimbursement, a credit positive for primary insurers.

B3i launched in October 2016 with five original members, including Aegon N.V., Allianz SE, Munich Reinsurance Company, Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd. and Zurich Insurance Company Ltd. It now has 15 members. Beta testing for B3i’s program is scheduled for October and is open to any insurers, reinsurers or brokers that wish to pilot the technology, regardless of their membership status in the consortium. Although the initial pilot was for property-catastrophe excess-of-loss policies, B3i plans to broaden its application to other types of reinsurance, catastrophe bonds and other insurance- linked securities.

Who holds more than one job to make ends meet?

From The Conversation.

Women who work in the arts or services industries, and who are young, are the ones most likely to be working more than one job in Australia.

HILDA Survey data show that, in recent years, approximately 7% to 8% of employed people hold more than one job. And while this hasn’t been growing, the proportion of people using multiple jobs as a way of achieving full-time employment has been rising. This is when a worker combines two or more part-time jobs that add up to 35 or more hours per week.

Overall, the HILDA Survey data suggests there are two broad groups of multiple job holders. The first group is made up of those who supplement their full-time employment with a relatively small number of additional hours of employment, perhaps doing the same kind of work as their main job – such as private tutoring done by teachers and informal child care provided by child care workers.

The second group comprises those working part-time in their main job and using multiple jobs as a means to getting enough hours of work. For these people, it may be more likely that their second job is a different type of work to their main job.

This second group has grown in size since the global financial crisis, rising from approximately 54% of multiple job holders in 2008 to approximately 62% in 2015. Associated with this has been growth in people using multiple jobs as a route to full-time employment. In 2014 and 2015, approximately one in four multiple job holders were part-time in each of their jobs, but full-time in all jobs combined. This was up from approximately one in six multiple job holders in the mid-2000s.

This growth is likely to be strongly connected to the rise in underemployment – part-time employed people who want more hours of work – that has occurred since the global financial crisis.

When an increasing number of people can’t find a full-time job (or a part-time job with sufficient hours), it’s unsurprising that there is a rise in part-time employed people taking second jobs, as a solution to insufficient hours.

Women holding more than one job

It’s women who are more likely to hold more than one job. This is likely to be connected to the higher proportion of women than men who are employed part-time, since multiple job-holding is more common among part-time workers.

There are also substantial differences by age group. Employed people aged 15-24 are the most likely to hold multiple jobs, and employed people aged 65 and over are the least likely to hold multiple jobs. Women aged 45-54 are also relatively likely to have multiple jobs.

The differences by age group in part reflect the prevalence of part-time employment in each age group. People aged 15-24 are particularly likely to be employed part-time.

However, other factors are also likely to play a role. For example, a significant proportion of women aged 45-54 could be seeking to increase their hours of work as their children get older, and for some this will involve taking on a second job.

The types of work where more than one job is common

There may be some truth to the stereotype of the underemployed actor working as a waiter. Approximately 15% of employed people whose main job is in arts or recreation services industries have more than one job. People employed in education and training and health care and social assistance industries also have quite high rates of multiple job holding.

In these industries in particular, there are more opportunities for extra work in the same industry. For example, teachers may be able to privately tutor outside of school hours, and child care workers (who are in the health care and social assistance industry) can provide informal child care outside of child care centre operating hours.

Community and personal service workers, followed by professionals, have relatively high rates of multiple job holding. Managers, machinery operators and drivers and technicians and trades workers have relatively low rates of multiple job holding. These differences also reflect both rates of part-time employment and opportunities for supplemental work outside the main job.

The HILDA data further show that multiple job holding is typically not a long-term arrangement. On average, over 50% of multiple job holders in one year no longer hold more than one job in the following year. Whether this will continue to be the case if current high levels of underemployment persist remains to be seen.

Author: Roger Wilkins, Professorial Research Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne

DFA’s SME Report 2017 Released

The latest results from the Digital Finance Analytics Small and Medium Business Survey, based on research from 52,000 firms over the past 12 months, is now available on request.   You can use the form below to obtain a free copy of the report.

There are around 2.2 million small and medium businesses (SME) operating in Australia, and nearly 5 million Australian households rely on income from them directly or indirectly. So a healthy SME sector is essential for the future growth of the country.

However, the latest edition of our report reveals that more than half of small business owners are not getting the financial assistance they require from lenders in Australia to grow their businesses.

Most SME’s are now digitally literate, yet the range of products and services offered to them via online channels remains below their expectations.

More SME’s are willing to embrace non-traditional lenders, via Fintech, thanks to greater penetration of digital devices, and more familiarity with these new players. In addition, many firms said they would consider switching banks, but in practice they do not.

Overall business confidence has improved a bit compared with our previous report, but the amount of “red tape” which firms have to navigate is a considerable barrier to growth.

Running a business is not easy. In some industries, more than half of newly formed businesses are likely to fail within three years. We found that banks are not offering the broader advice and assistance which could assist a newer business, so even simple concepts like cash flow management, overtrading and debtor management are not necessarily well understood. There is a significant opportunity for players to step up to assist, and in so doing they could cement and strengthen existing relationships as well as creating new ones.

We think simple “Robo-Advice” could be offered as part of a set of business services.

The sector is complex, and one-size certainly does not fit all. In this edition, we focus in particular on what we call “the voice of the customer”. In the body of the report we reveal the core market segmentation which we use for our analysis and we also explore this data at a summary level.

Here is a short video summary of the key findings.

The detailed results from the surveys are made available to our paying clients (details on request), but this report provides an overall summary of some of the main findings. We make only brief reference to our state by state findings, which are also covered in the full survey. Feel free to contact DFA if you require more information, or something specific. Our surveys can be extended to meet specific client needs.

Note this will NOT automatically send you our research updates, for that register here.

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Liar Loans and Household Finances – Property Imperative Weekly 16th Sept 2017

Risks in the property sector continue to rise, as we look at new data on household finances, the competitive landscape in banking and liar loans. Welcome to the Property Imperative to 16th September 2017.

We start our weekly digest looking at the latest data on the state of household finances. Watch the video, or read the transcript.

The Centre for Social Impact, in partnership with NAB released Financial Resilience in Australia 2016. This shows that while people are more financially aware, savings are shrinking and economic vulnerability is on the rise. In 2016, 2.4 million adults were financially vulnerable and there was a significant decrease in the proportion who were financially secure (35.7% to 31.2%). People were more likely to report having no access to any form of credit in 2016 (25.6%) compared to 2015 (20.2%) and no form of insurance (11.8% in 2016 compared to 8.7% in 2015). A higher proportion of people reported having access to credit through fringe providers in 2016 (5.4%) compared to 2015 (1.7%).

The ABS published their Survey of Household Income and Wealth. More than half the money Australian households spend on goods and services per week goes on basics – on average, $846 out of $1,425 spent. Housing costs have accelerated significantly. The data shows that more households now have a mortgage, while fewer are mortgage free. Rental rates remain reasonably stable, despite a rise in private landlords.

We published our Household Finance Confidence Index for August, which uses data from our 52,000 household surveys and Core Market Model to examine trends over time. Overall, households scored 98.6, compared with 99.3 last month, and this continues the drift below the neutral measure of 100. Younger households are overall less confident about their financial status, whilst those in the 50-60 year age bands are most confident. This is directly linked to the financial assets held, including property and other investments, and relative incomes. For the first time in more than a year, households in Victoria are more confident than those in NSW, while there was little relative change across the other states. One of the main reasons for the change is state of the Investment Property sector, where we see a significant fall in the number of households intending to purchase in NSW, and more intending to sell. One significant observation is the rising number of investors selling in Sydney to lock in capital growth, and seeking to buy in regional areas or interstate. Adelaide is a particular area of interest.

There was more mixed economic news this week, with the trend unemployment rate in Australia remaining at 5.6 per cent in August and the labour force participation rate rising to 65.2 per cent, the highest it has been since April 2012. However, the quarterly trend underemployment rate remained steady at 8.7 per cent over the quarter, but still at a historical high, for the third consecutive quarter. Full-time employment grew by a further 22,000 in August and part-time employment increased by 6,000.

The RBA published a discussion paper The Property Ladder after the Financial Crisis: The First Step is a Stretch but Those Who Make It Are Doing OK”. Good on the RBA for looking at this important topic. But we do have some concerns about the relevance of their approach. They highlight the rise of those renting, and attribute this largely to rising home prices. As a piece of research, it is interesting, but as it stops in 2014, does not tell us that much about the current state of play! A few points to note. First, the RBA paper uses HILDA data to 2014, so it cannot take account of more recent developments in the market – since then, incomes have been compressed, mortgage rates have been cut, and home prices have risen strongly in most states, so the paper may be of academic interest, but it may not represent the current state of play.   Very recently, First Time Buyers appear to be more active. More first time buyers are getting help from parent, and their loan to income ratios are extended, according to our own research. Also, they had to impute those who are first time buyers from the data, as HILDA does not identify them specifically.  Tricky!

ANZ has updated its national housing price forecast. They think nationwide prices will finish the year 5.8% higher, though prices are now 9.7% higher than a year ago. They attribute much of the slow-down in home price growth to retreating property investors. They also think Melbourne will be more resilient than Sydney.

Banks have been putting more attractor rates into the market to chase low risk mortgage loan growth this week.  CBA advised brokers that the bank is offering a $1,250 rebate for “new external refinance investment and owner-occupied principal and interest home loans” and some rate cuts.  ANZ increased its fixed rate two-year investor loans (with principal and interest repayments) by 31 basis points to 4.34 per cent p.a., while its two-year fixed resident investor loan with an interest-only repayment structure fell by 10 basis points to 4.64 per cent p.a. Suncorp also reduced fixed rates on its two and three-year investment home package plus loans by 20 and 30 basis points, respectively. The new rate for both is 4.29 per cent p.a., provided that the loan is for more than $150,000 and the loan to value ratio (LVR) is less than 90 per cent. MyState Bank has announced a decrease in its two-year fixed home loan rates for new, owner-occupied home loans with an LVR equal to or below 80%, effective immediately. Data from AFG highlights that the majors are reasserting their grip on the mortgage market – so much for macroprudential.

A UBS Report on “liar loans” grabbed the headlines. It is based on an online survey of 907 individuals who had taken out mortgages in the last 12 months and claimed 1/3 of mortgage applications (around $500 billion) were not entirely accurate. Understating living costs was the most significant misrepresentation, plus overstating income, especially loans via brokers. ANZ was singled out by UBS for an alleged high proportion of incorrect loans. Of course the industry rejected the analysis, but we have been watching the continued switching between owner occupied and investor loans – $1.4 billion last month, and more than $56 billion – 10% of the investor loan book over the past few months. This has, we think been driven by the lower interest rates on offer for owner occupied loans, compared with investor loans. But, we wondered if there was “flexibility with the truth” being exercised to get these cheaper loans. So UBS may have a point.  They conclude “while household debt levels, elevated house prices and subdued income growth are well known, these finding suggest mortgagors are more stretched than the banks believe, implying losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate”. Exactly.

The Treasury released their Affordable Housing draft legislation, which proposes an additional 10% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) benefit for investors who provide affordable housing via a recognised community housing entity. It also allows investment for affordable housing to be made via Managed Investment Trusts (MIT). The focus is to extend market mechanisms to get investors to put money into schemes designed to provide more rental accommodation via community housing projects. Whilst the aims are laudable, and the Government can say they are “Addressing Affordable Housing”, the impact we think will be limited.

APRA’s submission to the Productive Commissions review on Competition in the Australian Financial System review discusses the trade-off between financial stability and competition. They compared the banks’ cost income ratios in Australia with overseas, and suggests we have more efficient banks here – but they fail to compare relative net income ratios and overall returns – which are higher here thanks to a weaker competitive environment. They conclude that whilst some competition is good, too much risks financial stability.

The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics heard from the regulators this week. The focus was the banks’ out of cycle mortgage rate price hikes. Some of the banks have attributed the rise in rates to the regulatory changes but are they profiteering from the announcement? ASIC said the issue was whether the public justification for the interest rate rise was actually inaccurate and perhaps false and misleading, and therefore in breach of the ASIC Act. ASIC is currently “looking at this issue” and will be working with the ACCC, which has been given a specific brief by Treasury to investigate the factors that have contributed to the recent interest rate setting.

APRA was asked if lenders’ back book IO repricing practices were “actually opportunistic changes” that had effectively used the APRA speed limits as excuses to garner profit. Deflecting the question, APRA said it would wait to see what came out of inquiries by the ACCC and ASIC, but it was not to blame for any rate hikes, saying “a direct assertion that we made them put up interest rates is clearly not true”.

We think at very least the banks were given an alibi for their rate hikes, which have certainly improved margins significantly.

Finally, the ABS Data on Lending Finance to end July highlighted the rise in commercial lending, other than for investment home investment, was up 2%, while lending for property investment fell as a proportion of all lending, and of lending for residential housing. This included significant falls in NSW, further evidence property investors may be changing their tune.

So, finally some green shoots of business investment perhaps. We really need this to come on strong to drive the growth we need to stimulate wages. The upswing is there, but quite small, so we need to watch the trajectory over the next few months.  Overall lending grew 0.64% in the month, (which would be 7.8% on an annualised basis), way stronger than wages or cpi. So household debt will continue to rise, relative to income, so risks in the property sector continue to grow.

And that’s the Property Imperative to 16th September 2017. If you found this useful, do subscribe to get future updates and thanks for watching.