This is an edited version of my latest live stream, featuring Leath van Onselen, joint founder of Macrobusiness and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth.
We explored the consequences of the massive waves of migration now forecast in the budget pages (hidden in an appendix) and the potential impact of home prices and quality of life.
The original show is available here: https://youtube.com/live/_DxR9F4l20g
This version tidied up the audio, as we had renovators noises off during the live show.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Join me for a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Given the population growth now projected in the latest budget, Leith has pivoted on home prices, so we explore these dynamics. You can ask a question live.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest property discussion, with Edwin Almeida, covering sinkholes, buyer competition (and what is driving them), migration, and the need for insurance… plus lots of other items too!
I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the latest mortgage rate moves, and how this is playing out across households and banks. With the expectation that rates might well go higher still, what can be done?
The financial markets have been fighting the Fed since October of last year, especially since the start of this year, in two ways. The first involves bidding-up stock prices in anticipation of a ‘Fed pivot’, which is probably a self-defeating strategy. The second involves factoring lower interest rates into bond prices.
The backdrop is mounting economic uncertainty as Finance leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations warned on Saturday in a subdued end to a three-day meeting overshadowed by concerns about the U.S. debt stalemate and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The gathering in the Japanese city of Niigata came as global policymakers – already preoccupied by U.S. bank failures and efforts to reduce reliance on China – are now forced to grapple with a potential default by the world’s largest economy. While the communique made no mention of the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate, it figured constantly in discussions.
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Friday, led by weaker megacap shares following their recent rally, as data showed U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low. The Dow was barely lower in its fifth straight day of declines, the blue-chip index’s longest losing streak in two months.
May consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest since November. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading for May came in at 57.7, much lower than the 63 expected and down from 63.5 in April.
Treasury yields rose in the bond market following the consumer-sentiment report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury erased an earlier dip and climbed to 3.46 per cent from 3.39 per cent late Thursday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.
The risks are building, and recession is becoming more likely!
CONTENT
0:00 Start 0:15 Introduction 0:50 G7 Warnings 4:44 US Markets 6:50 US Consumer Sentiment Crashes 7:50 Bonds 9:15 Debt Default? 11:22 Europe 13:40 Oil and Gold 15:40 Asia 17:45 Australia 21:20 Bitcoin Halving 23:16 Summary and Conclusion
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest Friday evening chat with Tarric Brooker. We answer follower questions on the mortgage market. And we got into some deep discussion about where prices may go!
The Bank of England lifted the cash rate by 0.25%, the 12th rise – to 4.5%. They held a press conference of over an hour, and mindful of the recommendations relating to the RBA review highlighting weakness in communication, I picked out some highlights from the UK session.
This includes the basic rationale for the rate rise, a discussion about the mortgage cliff, what caused inflation in the first place, and the impact on households. It was frankly a more grown up discussion – even if they still anchor inflation to supply chain shocks and energy issues. But their comments on Huw Pill recent comments were also significant.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from REINZ tells the story of ongoing weakness in New Zealand Property, even if they try to spin the results to argue people should be meeting the market, which was down again!
ASIC is warning credit providers and debt management firms that strong, targeted action against predatory lending, high-cost credit and misconduct impacting consumers experiencing financial difficulty is expected in the coming months as part of its continuing focus on protecting consumers.
Timely, given the high cost of debt, and the pressure many households and businesses are under. Remember more debt is not necessarily the answer!
This weeks rant was recorded later than normal, but we explored some fundamental questions about the RE industry, and how agents are rewarded. No wonder we see some poor behaviors. And we look at the importance of keeping calm given the falls in listings, and what happens when people fail to take the right steps before purchase.
