When JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the United States and the global economy could tip into a recession by the middle of the next year, its time to adopt the brace position.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Dimon said.
He said the S&P 500 could fall by “another easy 20%” from the current levels, with the next 20% slide likely to “be much more painful than the first”.
Runaway inflation, big interest rates hikes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unknown effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policy are among the indicators of a potential recession, he said in an interview to the business news channel.
Earlier this year, Dimon had asked investors to brace for an economic “hurricane”, with JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. investment bank, suspending share buybacks in July after missing quarterly Wall Street expectations.
In June, Goldman Sachs had predicted a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, while the economists at Morgan Stanley placed the odds of a recession for the next 12 months at around 35%.
“We continue to expect that the Fed will hike by 75bp in November, 50bp in December, and 25bp in February to reach a terminal forecast of 4.5-4.75%,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Fed vice chair Lael Brainard said Monday that a “second-half rebound will be limited, and that real GDP growth will be essentially flat this year.” The slowing growth, however, doesn’t appear to be dissuading the Fed from its path of monetary policy. “Monetary policy will be restrictive for some time to ensure that inflation moves back” to the central bank’s 2% target,” Brainard added.
