As we run down to Christmas, we look at the state of play of property with our insider Edwin Almeida, touch on the question population growth and the need for real building surveys, and also remind people to “Think Asbestos” through the DIY season as we commemorate Gill’s death on this day 3 years ago.
The Shadow Of Asbestos Still Haunts: https://youtu.be/d-zZuBoWzQA
You can join us live next Monday 30th December at 8pm Sydney for our final Rant of the year….
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Migration into Australia remains too high, and has directly and indirectly caused a massive rise in homelessness. Tent cities have sprung up, and some councils are now trying to clear them moving homeless people on. So today we look at what caused the problem, and what this means for the homeless.
One academic describes the decision by a homeless person to be seen as a “political act”. “They’re demonstrating their kind of deprivation through living in a tent in the public realm, and I’m glad that it pisses people off,” Cameron Parsell, a social sciences professor at the University of Queensland, says. “We should be pissed off. But rather than being pissed off by the people in the park, we should be pissed off about the lack of affordable housing.”
For all the concern about safety, several service providers said the crackdown risked undermining the group most at risk – homeless people themselves.
There are two schools of thought about safety. Many trust in safety in numbers; clearing a park forces people to adopt the other approach, staying out of sight. That doesn’t always work.
Many believe the crackdown is not about safety at all, but about visibility. Keeping homeless people apart keeps them out of sight.
The Guardian article made no reference at all to the migration problem. But my point is that homelessness could be eased if migration was pulled significantly lower, allowing time to catch up on building, and to get people into homes.
But no, Federal Government keeps the tap open, and councils are moving homeless people on from pillar to post. This simply does not solve the problem, and the social consequences will be enormous.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Destroying Tent Cities Does Not Solve The Housing Problem!
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.
Recently, we saw markets charging higher, as many markets touched all-time highs again on the expectation of more rate cuts, but that changed this week, following another pivot from the FED and more strong economic readings gave pause for thought. While the U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, it projected only two rate reductions in 2025, citing the economy’s continued resilience and still-elevated inflation.
We also briefly had the risk of a US Government shut down to content with, though that was averted. The messy process of averting a U.S. government shutdown offered investors a glimpse into challenges the incoming Trump administration will face in implementing its agenda, adding a market concern for the coming year. At very least Trump is likely to lead with bold threats and leverage them to push negotiations in his favor. Republican hardliners who normally are ardent Trump supporters are resisting his push to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, sticking to their belief that government spending needs to be pruned and defying his warnings of revenge. “Granted, Trump isn’t president yet, but he will interject ideas at the last minute and there’s no guarantee every member of the Republican Party in Congress is going to go along with his ideas,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth “That is a formula for gridlock, uncertainty, and volatility.”
And we also had the triple witching, where options contracts expire which added to the complexity.
All up although Friday saw US markets turning more positive again, across the week, drops were widespread, with the MSCI Global index down 2.53%, though still up 16.13% year to date, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.18%, but still down 2.25% for the week, its longest losing streak since October 1974. The S&P 500 index gained 1.09%, but down 1.99% across the week while the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 1.07% having fallen 1.78% across the 5 days.
Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, dropped his usual post on X Saylor issued a four-word statement: “Wear a Hard Hat.” as Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to $94,000 from its peak of over $100,000.
Saylor’s advice could well be true for other market participates too, as given the high quantum of uncertainly in the weeks ahead, wearing a hard hat makes sense as market volume declines over the holiday period, and as many stocks are in over valued territory. It could be a very frosty period for investors.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Is It Hard Hat Time As The Santa Rally Turns Decidedly Frosty?
I caught up with journalist Tarric Brooker for a look back over the year, and what might be up in 2025, including of course some great slides.
We dwelt on housing and Government policy, the structure of the economy and what might be underlying the dire numbers reported recently. How much is spin and how much is real?
You can catch Tarric’s work at https://www.burnouteconomics.com/
The latest slides are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-christmas-special
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
A Bet On Australia Is Bet On Government: With Tarric Brooker
There was always going to be a question about the Fed’s December decision, would they react to the latest data, or position ahead of the Trump 2.0 policy set coming in 2025? Well, it looks like both were in the minds of the Monetary Policy committee, as Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025, signaling greater caution over how quickly they can continue reducing borrowing costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 on Wednesday to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
Markets fell heavily in the US, and Asia, with the DOW and SP500 down more than 2.5% and the NASDAQ more than 3.5% lower. This was the largest post FED market move in 4 years. Falls were widespread. The ASX 200 slid 1.7%.
Bonds were stronger, . The US two-year note’s yield, more sensitive than longer maturities to Fed policy shifts, led the move in Treasuries, rising as much as eight basis points to 4.33%, the highest level since Nov. 25. and the US dollar rose, with the DXY up to 108.10.
The moves have reignited questions about how far central banks across Asia are willing to go to defend their currencies — and how much impact their moves will have. Indonesia’s central bank said on Thursday that it was intervening to push back against a selloff in the rupiah, while the People’s Bank of China used its daily reference rate to support the yuan.
Weaker currencies tend to raise the price of imports to a country, fueling domestic inflation. Further rate cuts could also put more pressure on currencies as investors look elsewhere for returns, exacerbating the impact of dollar strength.
Not good for chances of an RBA rate cut in 2025.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Dollar Taking No Prisoners As Fed’s Hawkish Cut Spooked Markets!
Total budget revenue is cumulatively higher by about $380 billion over five years compared with Treasury’s forecasts on the eve of the May 2022 election.
Yet, at a time when revenue is booming and the economy is operating around full capacity, the deficit in underlying terms is forecast to be $26.9 billion (1 per cent of gross domestic product), a $1.3 billion improvement since the May budget.
Cumulative underlying deficits over four years are projected to blow out to $144 billion, $21.7 billion worse than expected seven months ago.
Where are the adults in the room because from the budget point of view, they appear to have left years ago, and the result will be more pressure on ordinary households and businesses across the country.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Wanted Adults In The Budget Room, As Deficits Roar And Games Are Played!
This is an edit of a live discussion with Economist Leith van Onselen, Co-founder of MacroBusiness, and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We will pick apart the latest housing disasters, and why things have gone so pear shaped, but also what could be done (with political will) to sort this mess out! It is NOT rocket science…
You can ask a question live!
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live HD Replay: The Great Housing Bust, And What Can Be Done About It: With Leith van Onselen
As we count down to the end of the year, Edwin and I discuss the idea that Government wants to keep property prices ever higher, look at a disaster of a building survey as a warning for those who trust vendor surveys, and spot areas where prices are well down from 2017 levels, despite all the hype.
Plus we consider the problem of not enough skilled construction workers to meet targets in Australia and the UK, and the underlying reasons why property is largely unaffordable.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
We deep dive on the thorny question of household finances and the proportion of disposable income going to pay the rent or mortgage, using data from our core market model.
We find that conditions are quite severe in many parts of the country, but it is not uniformly spread. Which households are most under the pump in terms of these critical ratios?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 0.53% earlier, breaking a three-week winning streak, as investors sought clarity on Europe’s rate policy amid concerns about economic growth and a potential trade war.
As we run down to the end of the year, a flurry of Central Bank rate announcements signalled a confusing picture, with the RBA holding, the ECB cutting as expected, alongside Denmark at 25 basis points, and Swiss Bank cutting unexpectedly as it sought to head off gains in its currency along with Canada both doing a bigger 50 basis point cut. Next week, we have more Central Bank action, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Japan all joining the party. While investors are betting on a quarter point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations are rising that the pace of rate cuts is poised to slow, with an 80% probability of a hold in January, while cuts in the UK and Japan are not expected. So, you can see monetary policy is all over the shop.
The shadow of president-elect Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on imports from around the globe, especially China, as well as his promise for massive corporate tax cuts haunts the markets. These policies are seen as fueling inflation, which has been proving sticky even before Trump’s plans are enacted.
Finally, Bitcoin was once again touching $100,000 US, as Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor tweeted: “We are all competing for $45m in #Bitcoin mined daily.”
Curiously, earlier this week, another big Bitcoin supporter and maximalist, the chief executive at JAN3, Samson Mow, shared that he expects miners to stop selling the BTC they mint in the near future. He urged the market to be prepared for that and plan their Bitcoin accumulation accordingly. Earlier this week, Saylor commented on a Bitcoin warning tweet published by Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao issued a major reminder that more than 19 million Bitcoin from 21 million have been mined already. Saylor tweeted that the crypto space is running out of Bitcoin. It was last at 101,300, and will likely wobble around this level for some time.
Given significant uncertainty ahead, markets are generally overvalued, and prone to volatility and potential falls, so cash returning 4 or 5 percent relatively risk free might look a good option for now!!!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
