The ABS released their latest and now infamously wobbly employment data today which reported a surprising dropped in February, declining by 52,800 — led by full-time roles — compared with a forecast 30,000 increase. The outcome was the sharpest fall in employment since December 2023. The jobless rate held at 4.1%, reflecting a fall in participation rate to 66.8% from a revised 67.2%.
We know that since COVID Public Statisticians around the world have been struggling to measure real employment and unemployment accurately – for example the ONS in the UK all but publically admitted their figures were rubbish. At very least, while The ABS adjusts the data for seasonal patterns around hiring, firing and employee leave, these past patterns have recently changed making its report all but meaningless.
That said, the jobless rate remained at 4.1% and the central bank expects it to be 4.2% in June this year, so the surprise drop in employment is unlikely to bring forward another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the jobs market is still historically strong.
“Today’s data shows some of the expected softening in the labor market,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. “While there are still challenges in our economy and people are still under pressure, we still have the lowest average unemployment of any government in the last 50 years.”
The RBA’s next meeting will take place over March 31-April 1.
Nothing here to justify rate cuts against the impact of tariffs incoming!
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