Episode – Page 13 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Just The Start As Markets Are Rocked By Rotations, BSOD, Politics, And More…

In our latest weekly market update, we start in the US, move to Europe and Asia and end in Australia as well as covering commodities and crypto, as a way of digesting all that has happened this past few days.

This past week, was again packed full of contradictory signals, with World stock indexes falling on Friday as a global cyber outage rattled investors by disrupting operations across multiple industries, while the dollar climbed alongside Treasury yields. All three US indices fell, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered their biggest weekly percentage declines since April. while Gold briefly traded below $US2400 an ounce, oil fell 3 per cent to trade below $US83 a barrel and iron ore slid 1 per cent, while the second quarter earnings season is off to a mixed start.

A growing number of analysts and strategists are telling clients there is fragility among the stock giants having touched highs recently. Now the dilemma for investors is after 10 months of a big rally, should investors stick with their big winners or change tack remembering that history says wealth is created by a tiny number of companies, and most stocks will make investors poorer.

The market is overbought but analysts are split on whether the strong breadth improvements will be bullish for stocks moving forward or a rotation away from technology where most of the growth has been means markets will fall.

As with global stocks, concentration in the Asia-Pacific region is at 35-year highs, and CBA (which has been the fourth-largest contributor to returns in the region in the past 20 years, on BofA’s numbers) has been a prime mover; it is one of just eight stocks that have delivered 80 per cent of the gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index this year.

There will be more madness ahead!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Just The Start As Markets Are Rocked By Rotations, BSOD, Politics, And More…

00:00 / 00:23:23

How Do We Know That Mortgage Arrears Are Now Rising In Australia?

The latest RBA bulletin, just released, contained a couple of significant articles relating to mortgage arrears and serviceability. The first, “Recent Drivers of Housing Loan Arrears” shows that Housing loan arrears rates have increased from low levels since late 2022, with banks expecting them to rise a bit further from here. High LVR and DTI loans are most at risk. No surprise there.

The second, “How the RBA Uses the Securitisation Dataset to Assess Financial Stability Risks from Mortgage Lending” makes the point that the data used relating to around one third of loans, contains lags of up to 2 years especially for highly leverage loans, which limits the usefulness of that dataset.

Securitisation data collected by the RBA, forming the Securitisation Dataset, on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) as a condition for eligibility as collateral in repurchase agreements with the RBA. These loan-level data are provided monthly, and are both timely and granular. The data provide detailed information about each loan that can be used to help form a view of financial health among mortgagors. As lenders can face incentives to select certain types of loans for securitisation or ensure the performance of loans after issuance, the data may not be fully representative of all mortgages in the Australian market. In other words, the loans are hand-picked for securitisation.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

How Do We Know That Mortgage Arrears Are Now Rising In Australia?

00:00 / 00:21:52

The Narrow Path Says Rate Hikes Are Coming In Australia!

The ABS released the latest employment data today, and in response, investors have bumped up their bets on an August interest rate rise after the jobs market recorded another month of strong employment gains in June.

As always there is a degree of numberwanging here, and the numbers are being flattered by the still strong migration, but the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by less than 0.1 percentage point to 4.1 per cent in June, With employment rising by around 50,200 people and the number of unemployed growing by 10,000 people, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 per cent, and the participation rate rose to 66.9 per cent.

The employment growth figures were better than market expectations for gains of 20,000 and highlighted the continuing resilience of the local jobs market in the face of the fastest interest rate tightening cycle in decades.

“The participation rate in June was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the historical high of 67.0 per cent in November 2023. The employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to 64.2 per cent, which was also close to its historical high of 64.4 per cent in November 2023.

This increase in employment was not enough to stop the jobless rate from rising to 4.1 per cent last month from 4 per cent in May, as a continuing surge in foreign arrivals helped push the participation rate to a near-record high of 66.9 per cent.

With inflationary pressures remaining uncomfortably strong, investors now ascribe a one-in-five chance the RBA board will increase the cash rate from 4.35 per cent to 4.6 per cent when it next meets on August 6, up from a 14 per cent chance before the jobs data. They are also pricing a 28 per cent chance of a move higher by September, up from 17 per cent on Wednesday.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Narrow Path Says Rate Hikes Are Coming In Australia!

00:00 / 00:11:17

Rotation To A “Tech-Wreck” Replay?

My Saturday show highlighted the start of the rotation from tech stocks to the broader market, as exemplified in the trends in the NASDAQ and the Small Caps 2000. This trend has continued, and on Wednesday it went into overdrive as the world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales to China spurred a selloff in the industry that has led the bull market in stocks.

I was around for the dot-com bubble, a stock market bubble that ballooned during the late-1990s and peaked on Friday, March 10, 2000. This period of market growth coincided with the widespread adoption of the World Wide Web and the Internet, resulting in a dispensation of available venture capital and the rapid growth of valuations in new dot-com startups.

One common theme is “its different this time”. You cannot apply normal valuation rules, they do not apply. Well, of course the recent AI trends have been driven by confidence of a new business era, and people again are talking about new rules, despite the fact that companies like NVIDA have sold the lions share of their cards to established and cashed up big tech companies like Microsoft, and others in a weird feedback loop. The real benefits of AI for normal downstream businesses are still to come.

So are we seeing the start of another tech-wreck? I think its too soon to tell.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Rotation To A “Tech-Wreck” Replay?

00:00 / 00:09:37

Corporates Gouge, While IMF Warns The Inflation Squeeze Will Be On For Longer Than Expected!

Households will see Inflation around for much longer than expected and while the pressure on households continue to build, so does distrust across the economy in Australia, according to data from the IMF and a special Roy Morgan End of Financial Year webinar.

Despite the better-than-expected US inflation figures, the International Monetary Fund in its quarterly update of the World Economic Outlook just warned that momentum on global disinflation had slowed, largely due to ongoing elevated rates of services inflation.

For example, the latest data today for the UK showed that The Consumer Prices Index inflation unexpectedly stays at 2% in June, higher than economists predicted and causing a paring of bets on when the Bank of England will cut rates at its next meeting. The news sent the pound above $1.30 for the first time in a year. Services inflation that has been a special focus of the BOE was also unchanged at 5.7%. Economists had expected the headline rate to drop to 1.9%, while the central bank had forecast services at 5.1% by now. Traders pushed back bets on a rate cut next month, pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a move on Aug. 1, down from almost 50% yesterday.

In Australia, the June quarter consumer price index on July 31 will be decisive in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will be forced to deliver a 14th interest rate rise at its August 6 board meeting. With underlying inflation running about 4 per cent, markets are pricing in a 16 per cent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to 4.6 per cent, from 4.35 per cent, when it next meets. That said, bets on another rate rise from the RBA eased over the past week as bond markets rallied on the back of an outright decline in the US consumer price index, though I think the read across from the US by the markets is over done.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Corporates Gouge, While IMF Warns The Inflation Squeeze Will Be On For Longer Than Expected!

00:00 / 00:16:18

DFA Live Q&A Replay: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble!

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Perth. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades.

His understanding of market psychology has ensured valued investment strategies in bull and bear markets. Because of his ability to understand the small cap market space, Tony has been featured in dozens of well known publications across Australia, such as Small Caps, Sky Business, Digital Finance Analytics, and many more.

If you are looking for an investment manager who has your best interests at heart, Tony is the man for you. https://tonylocantro.com/

Tony Locantro’s Carnivore Transformation! https://youtu.be/FV0TWDeOG8E

Original show recording here: DFA Live Q&A: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble, This Time It’s Different! https://youtube.com/live/Tt7vpkujekM

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A Replay: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble!

00:00 / 01:31:45

The Shame Of Vacant Property In A Time Of Homelessness!

Back in 2021 the Census revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”.

But now we have a new survey from economic research organisation Prosper Australia, looking at empty homes in Melbourne from 2019 to 2023. The report SPECULATIVE VACANCIES 11 makes the point that while around 30,000 people in Victoria have no home, it is hard to quantify the number of homes that have no people. This they attempt to do.

To access vacancy, Prosper measures vacancy rates across metropolitan Melbourne using data from Melbourne’s three water retailers – Yarra Valley Water, South East Water and Greater Western Water.

They found that of the 1.9 million dwellings with active water connections in the study area, in total 97,861 dwellings sat empty or under-used over the entire year: 5.2% of all dwellings in metropolitan Melbourne, or one in 20 homes. These vacant dwellings represent a huge pool of valuable resources not being used productively. At the average household size they could accommodate over 250,000 people.

If this were replicated across Australia, it could be there are sufficient spare homes to meet current need! This should be a top political issue, but one no-one wants to touch!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Shame Of Vacant Property In A Time Of Homelessness!

00:00 / 00:14:29

Markets Reach For The Stars, Even As A Nascent Turn Is Under Way!

This is our weekly market update, starting in the US, then Europe, Asia and Australia and covering commodities and crypto.

This week, hopes of US interest rate cuts before the end of the year rose after data this week showed that inflation was cooling faster than expected, has muddied the waters, though all three US benchmarks powered higher, despite results from three major banks, which disappointed for different reasons. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.78, hitting another record intraday high.

The S&P 500 and Dow surged to all-time highs before giving up much of those gains by the close. So far this year, the Dow has risen 6.4%, underperforming the broader S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which have advanced 18.2% and 23.1%, respectively, over the same period. The S&P 500 was recently trading at 21.4 times forward earnings, compared to a historical average of 15.7, so its probably way over-valued!

Banks got hit at the start of the US earnings season after reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo slumped 6 per cent after warning it won’t be able to whittle away costs as fast as forecast, after the lender missed estimates for quarterly interest income. JPMorgan missed on a few key metrics like net interest income — despite posting record profit from by rising investment banking fees. However, shares of the world’s largest bank dipped 1.2%. Citigroup said costs for the year are likely to be at the high end of the range previously provided and fell 1.8% despite reporting a surge in investment banking revenue.

In Australia, the flagship S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.9 per cent, to a record 7959.3 points, to finish the week up 1.2 per cent. In the final session of the week, the market was helped higher by Australia’s largest bank, CBA which added 1.3 per cent to $131.66, extending a bull run that has sent shares up more than 30 per cent in 12 months. As CBA ended the day with a $220.3 billion market cap, it surpassing BHP’s $220.1 billion capitalisation. The latter finished the day 0.37 per cent lower at $43.40 after informing the market late on Thursday that it would suspend nickel mining operations in Western Australia. Friday marked the first time that CBA has overtaken BHP as Australia’s most valuable public company since November 2021.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Markets Reach For The Stars, Even As A Nascent Turn Is Under Way!

00:00 / 00:19:39