Data from CoreLogic shows the “dead cat bounce” in New Zealand home prices, driven by the higher for longer interest rates, and significant pressure to refinance,
Recent changes from 1st July will not have much impact on the market, while the Reserve Bank won’t be cutting rates for some time. Demand will remain weak, as migration starts to turn negative.
Therefore expect more downside to prices, especially in areas of Auckland and Wellington!
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The New Deputy Governor at the RBA said last week, that when it comes to a rate decision, they look at many different measures, apart from the recently released monthly series which showed a lift to 4% last time around in May.
So now, in May, so before any tax cuts or other Government help has hit, Australian retail sales rose by more than expected with spending largely driven by discounts in the face of elevated borrowing costs, an outcome that further strengthens the case for an interest rate hike this year.
As a result, yields on policy-sensitive two-year bonds rose to 4.289% as rates traders boosted the odds for an interest rate hike this year. Stocks pared gains, with the ASX 200 closing still in the green, at 7,739.90.
Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in May 2024, according to seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), making it the biggest increase in four months, The outcome, which was double the pace that analysts forecast, follows a 0.1% gain in April and a 0.4 per cent fall in March 2024.
We should highlight that with population growth of around 600,000 in the past year, and inflation running circa 4%, we should absolutely be expecting to see retail turnover lifting, as people pay more the things they buy, and more people buy them.
All up, to me while there is a better tone to this numbers, many consumers remain under intense pressure, while strong population growth is working its “magic” in cushioning retailers from the worst impacts and are allowing them to retain and build margin. Other data suggests more vehicle sales slowed into the financial year end. The tax cuts might well given a further boost to sales, but potentially also to inflation.
The ASX Rate tracker is now seeing a high of 4.47% in November, and back to 4.35% in June next year. The bottom line is I think markets are correct in reading this as a reinforcing sign that rates may need to go higher to snuff out inflation. But is not definitive, yet as there is more data water to go under the bridge.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments for Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen. As we start the new financial year, how are the markets looking and what are they key trends ahead?
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen
First show of the new financial year, so we dive into the impact of the financial changes, and consider the impact on the property market, as well as the latest from the Weechatters and changes to planning rules on values,
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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We update our modelling to the end of June 2024, examining the latest in mortgage, rental, investment and financial stress across Australia.
While the upcoming tax cuts and energy support may assist, the truth is about half of households are under sever pressure, and with rates expected to be higher for longer, its time for people to consider tactics to improv their cash flow.
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If you want me to include a specific post code in one of my future shows, put the details in the comments and I will try to include it.
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This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, and we also cover commodities and crypto, as I get my ideas straight for the next leg of the year. In essence, AI has driven markets hard, especially in the US, but market breadth is narrow, and risks remain elevated.
Shares in New York ended lower on Friday, reversing modest opening gains after the latest inflation data showed that the disinflation narrative was intact, widening ever so slightly the door to a pivot to rate cuts. So an early rally fizzled as investors digested in-line inflation data and weighed political uncertainty after the U.S. presidential debate where the shaky performance from U.S. President Joe against Donald Trump has just ratcheted November’s U.S. election uncertainty up substantially.
Data showed U.S. monthly inflation was unchanged in May, an encouraging development after strong price increases earlier this year raised doubts over the effectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy. The Commerce Department report also showed consumer spending rose marginally last month, fueling optimism that the U.S. central bank could engineer a much-desired “soft landing” for the economy.
There was a late wave of selling the magnificent seven, with a 3 per cent tumble in Meta. Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft each closed more than 1 per cent lower though Tesla edged 0.2 per cent higher.
Wells Fargo noted that upcoming events, such as the November elections and potential delays in disinflation, may cause episodes of market volatility in the months ahead. Worth reflecting again on the fact that thirty percent of the S&P’s returns this year have come from Nvidia alone. It was now the most expensive stock on the most expensive market in the world and the Magnificent 7 accounts for 71% of the S&P 500 Index’s year-to-date return. Tightrope time?
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
From Here, Where? As Uncertainty Haunts The Markets!
We are back for another Friday chat with independent journalist Tarric Brooker, as we explore the latest data and charts and try to make sense of what is playing out politically and economically at the moment.
Can things only get better?
Tarric’s charts are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-28th-june-2024
Tarric’s new website and paywall is here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/australias-construction-sector-an
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The ABS released their latest data on Household Wealth in the March 2024 quarter today. They say in aggregate terms, household wealth was up 2.7% in the March quarter, or $431 billion dollars.
The value of assets is skyrocketing at the moment, but incomes are hardly growing. So if you’re lucky enough to own any assets (like a residential property, or superannuation savings), your wealth is likely increasing. But if you don’t own any assets, you’re missing out.
So, the story continues, with asset prices continuing to swell, in response to policy from Central Banks and Governments, but there are two questions to consider, first will the asset growth continue, or are we reaching levels where the higher for longer interest rates will start hitting home and second, what of the growing number of households with zero assets, and a cash flow deficit.
While superficially the ABS numbers might sound promising, actually they tell a sad tale, of asset inflation, but one which few want to recognise. At least for now.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The ABS released the latest monthly CPI data today, and it reports that Inflation is still sticky in Australia, and accelerated faster than expected for a third straight month in May, sending the currency higher as traders boosted bets that the Reserve Bank will resume raising interest rates at its next meeting. The report comes after RBA Governor Michele Bullock restated last week that the rate-setting board isn’t ruling out a rate hike after leaving the benchmark at a 12-year high of 4.35%.
Wednesday’s figures suggest inflation is running ahead of the RBA’s forecast for underlying inflation to ease to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. That said, the monthly numbers are at best partial, compared with the more complete quarterly data which provides a fuller picture of inflation.
In truth, for many households real inflation is much higher than the statistics suggest, with continued massive lifts in insurance costs for example, but Warren Hogan may end up being right, with further rate hikes a clear threat if the Q2 quarterly inflation print confirms the uptrend.
This is a mess, created by taking rates too low in the first place, saying they would stay low into 2024, then not returning them to normal rates soon enough, meantime luring many into property are extended prices and big loans. The route out of the years of policy failure will be difficult for many, though somehow policy makers and politicians seem to be able to find someone else to blame. How about some real accountability?
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of the Australian Property Market, with Sydney based Mortgage Broker, Chris Bates from Flint.
Chris started as a Financial Adviser back in 2007 and sold his Financial Advice business in 2020. Over the past 9 years, Chris has grown into one of Australia’s top Mortgage Brokers and is passionate about taking the product providing industry to a trusted advice based profession.
He is known for regularly airing his views on sound property investing on both LinkedIn and popular property industry podcasts The Elephant in the Room and Australian Property Podcast. You can find him on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/christopherbates
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Snakes And Ladders: With Chris Bates
