Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edit of our latest live discussion as I walked through our recent survey results, and discussed the outcomes at a postcode level.
For the full survey analysis see our show here: https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA
For additional post codes requested see here: https://youtu.be/TJ65WucbZAM
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Following my post about Household Financial Stress https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA and the upcoming live show tomorrow, I received many requests for postcode level analysis. So I made an extra show here to cover some of the requests.
Post Codes Covered (In Order) In This Show:
3912
4868
2560
4670
2487
6149
3842
3799
6072
4178
2042
4215
3690
2640
6030
2137
4670
3174
3012
Join us tomorrow on the live show for more. https://youtube.com/live/nXhfjacOnA0
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another deep dive into the dynamics of property with our insider Edwin Almeida. How are the new listings tracking, and how does this compare with the MSM stories we are seeing? Will new construction volumes remain in the doldrums?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Investors’ hopes were running high into the start of 2024, but the S&P 500 index started the year by stripping 2.2 per cent off its December 2023 peak while the all-important 10-year US Treasury yield has jumped back up from a recent low of 3.78 per cent to around 4 per cent. Investors have been cautious in the opening sessions of 2024, as they awaited further clarity on when interest rate cuts will begin, and how quickly they will happen.
Hopes for a swift pace of easing had triggered a blistering rally in the final weeks of 2023, which took the S&P 500 to within 1% of its all-time high, so any undermining of that hypothesis has been a cue for profit-taking.
So, no surprise then we could be in for a rocky stretch in the markets.
Friday’s session saw markets gyrate throughout the day, as investors absorbed the latest macroeconomic data which offered contrasting views on when interest rate cuts may begin.
Looking further ahead, investors will parse the message from the Fed at the end of its Jan. 30-31 policy meeting. Markets expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged this month, and bets on a cut at the March meeting have been pared back.
The 10-year German Bond is a important benchmark, and was last at 2.1740, up 3.28% perhaps sending a message globally about the direction of interest rates.
The Australian share market rounded out its worst start to the year in more than a decade on Friday, as the broad rally staged in the final months of 2023 lost steam.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Ahead of my live show on Tuesday evening, today I walk through the latest from our household surveys, with a focus on mortgage, rental, investor and overall household financial stress.
We look at the top stressed postcodes as represented by the data to end December 2023. We also map that data for selected urban centres, as well as default estimates.
If you want data on a specific postcode to be featured on Tuesday drop it in the comments on YouTube.
Details of our One to One Service is also found on our blog: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
CoreLogic reported that their national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 8.1% in 2023, a significant turnaround from the 4.9% drop seen in 2022, but well below the 24.5% surge recorded in 2021. December’s 0.4% increase saw 2023 finish with a relatively soft monthly rise in home values.
Despite the annual 8.1% increase, the year was punctuated by diversity , with the annual change in housing values ranging from a 15.2% surge in Perth to a 1.6% fall across regional Victoria.
So now of course, the question is what will happen in 2024. Last week I made two shows for the channel, one on the top 5 elements supporting home price growth in 2024 and the other on the top five elements which could drive prices lower.
If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong. On the other hand, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.
To make an assessment of what will play out, you then have to do is to weigh the relative influence of each of these forces, against an unstable local and global economic environment.
This is something we model dynamically, in our Core Market Model, which incorporates all these elements and delivers scenarios at a post code level for houses and units.
In comparison, the AFR published estimates from a panel of 10 property market experts and economists. Overall, they take a more sober view on growth prospects for the housing market, with most tipping gains of somewhere between 1 and 5 per cent. The most optimistic prediction is for house price gains of up to 8 per cent, while the most bearish forecast is for prices to fall nationally by as much 5 per cent.
Last year’s “very unusual supply and demand dynamics” are expected to normalise in 2024, according to Barrenjoey chief economist Jo Masters, who is tipping 4.8 per cent growth nationally. Sydney house prices could rise by 3.8 per cent, with Melbourne up 3.2 per cent and Brisbane 5.9 per cent.
“Importantly, we think borrowing capacity will re-emerge as a key constraint on demand,” she told AFR Weekend in a quarterly property survey.
Trying to pin the tail on the property price donkey, is fraught with difficulty, because of the uncertainty in the system – one reason why I run scenarios, and why the specific tale you prefer will influence your expectation of price movements.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Bloomberg reported yesterday that the US has become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time, with 2023 shipments overtaking leading suppliers Australia and Qatar.
The US exported 91.2 million metric tons of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data through Dec. 31 compiled by Bloomberg. The expanded output was due to last year’s restart of Freeport LNG in Texas, which had been shuttered for months following a June 2022 fire and explosion. Qatar, the top LNG supplier in 2022, saw its volumes shrink for the first time since at least 2016, with a 1.9% decline dropping the nation into third spot for shipments of the super-chilled fuel. Australia ranked second, with exports that were little changed from 2022.
Unlike East Coast Australia, the US has a domestic gas reservation scheme in place, which has mostly succeeded in keeping domestic gas prices low.
And the mooted A$80 Billion Deal between Woodside Energy and Santos could also put more upward pressure on Australian domestic gas prices.
“Both Santos and Woodside are material domestic gas producers, which may create market concentration concerns,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note.
It makes no sense to give any member of the gas export cartel – Origin, Woodside, Santos, EXXON or Shell – greater control of gas import volumes. Remember East Coast Electricity prices are driven by the marginal cost of LNG.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
After the December Federal Reserve Press Conference where Jerome Powell appeared to pivot to rate cuts ahead, with a more dovish tune than just a few days before, markets dialed up their expectations of up to six rate cuts though 2024, and stock markets veered towards all time highs, while bond yields fell. Powell said at the press conference that it was premature to declare victory, though he did acknowledge the question of when to begin “dialing back” policy restraint was discussed.
Futures markets have been anticipating the Fed will cut rates six times this year, beginning with a likely quarter-point reduction in March. Traders have priced in a 67% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March though several Fed officials have pushed back against expectations of an imminent policy move in recent weeks.
Which begs the question, are markets fooling themselves?
Well, we now have the minutes of the Dec. 12-13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting which were released yesterday. “Participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle,” the minutes said.
Officials “reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably.”
This helps to explain why markets are lower, and bond yields higher. So yes, markets are ahead of themselves.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Well, the numbers are now in so today I am going to review the performance of our channel over the last year, and specifically highlight the top 10 most watched shows.
I want to thank you for being part of the DFA community, watching our shows, and supporting us by subscribing, liking the shows, and sharing them widely. Its greatly appreciated and I want to celebrate the momentum we created together. Especially around some of our campaigns, most notably addressing the issue of bank branch closures and the need to be able to access cash.
None of these top ten were my live shows, which generally run each Tuesday evening. Generally live events tend to do less well on YT compared with recorded shows. But the great positive of live is the audience participation, which is key to building and nourishing the community. So a quick word of thanks, to all those who turn out regularly to support our live events.
And if you stand back, its clear that housing related shows rate well, as do the regular chats with Tarric and his slides, and some of the more philosophical shows such as Down the Rabbit Hole and the BRICS discussion, also did well.
If you have specific subjects you would like me to cover, or guest suggestions, drop them in the chat!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Damien Klassen Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. We reflected on the market switch from October, and what this means for 2024. Are we out of the woods yet? We also looked at some of the important mega-themes which will shape investing ahead.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
