This is an update on the Misinformation and Disinformation Bill currently in progress in the Australian parliament. It looks like the Senate will not pass the legislation which did however pass the lower house.
So in this show we look at the latest evidence given in the hearings last week, and more recent statements from some senators.
I think we need to be vigilant, but it is looking more likely the bill won’t get through in the next couple of weeks.
Worth pressing senators to ensure this is what happens!
The full hearings are available here: https://youtu.be/7OutKHkbfV8
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Has The Bad MAD Misinformation Bill Hit The Buffers?
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe, and Asia, and end in Australia covering crypto and commodities on the way.
My earlier call of enhanced market volatility proved correct, as a gauge of global stocks took its biggest weekly drop in two months driven by market euphoria after the Trump win now turning, as the implications in terms of tariffs and staff appointments sink in and as trading profits are made. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe lost 1.11%, to 842.61 for its fourth straight decline, following five straight advances. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed down 0.77% on the day and down 0.69% across the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest level in 5-1/2 months on Friday as economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a slower pace of interest rate cuts ahead.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Forget Seeking Certainty: Suddenly, The Fed’s Urge to Cut Rates Evaporates!
Following my live show on Tuesday I had a number of requests for mapping of the Rental Stress story across the country. So in this show we look at the distribution of rental stress both in count and percentage terms, based on DFA modelling and surveys.
Live show was here: https://youtu.be/c8rTWEEw2KU
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Can the Australian economy be weak, and strong at the same time? Or which is it? This is an important question because the answer will determine the future policy direction of interest rates, and the well-being of ordinary Australians. So I am going to do a deep dive on this in the light of the latest employment and wage rise data from the ABS.
While The RBA has made inroads into getting inflation under control, at 3.5 per cent, underlying inflation still remains above the central bank’s 2 per cent to 3 per cent target band. And even though the jobs market has softened, it is still far stronger than almost any time since the 1970s as data out today shows.
Yet Consumers have cut back sharply as they try to cope with 13 interest rate rises by the RBA and this decline in spending has caused economic growth to grind to a halt. On an annual basis, the economy grew by just 1 per cent in the year to June, down from an average of 2.7 per cent over the past 20 years. Excluding the pandemic, that marks the slowest rate of growth since the 1990s recession. And household financial stress based on our analysis is at peak as we discussed in my live show this week.
So we have an economy driven into overdrive by high migration and big government spending, forcing interest rates to stay higher for longer, yet with a low unemployment rate and people working till they drop. None of this helps to improve productivity the share of the economic cake continues to shrink on an individual basis. And those in the rental sector or with a large mortgage are under the pump.
My point is, bad policy over a couple of decades have got us to this point, but unless we radically change direction, this Messy And Complicated journey will continue to the detriment of many ordinary Australians and businesses. There is no Goldilocks zone here.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Australian Economy; Its Messy And Complicated!
One of the themes which comes through in our household surveys is that many people are under financial pressure, but are holding out for interest rate cuts in the short term.
But America’s election outcome continues to reverberate across the globe.
Bond markets continue to push higher with the US 2 and 10 year moving up, a trend reflected on the Australian market too. With the 10 year up to 4.7% compared with 3.8% in the middle of September. The ASX 30 days cash rate futures is still trending down, but more slowly than recently.
Financial markets and economists have been consistently pushing back the timing of the first rate cut in Australia since 2022 because inflation has proved far more difficult to tame and the labour market has remained strong. Traders are now fully priced for a move in September next year.
But some reckon there is a much higher chance of no rate cut in 2025 that the market is pricing in.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, climbed to a six-month high on Wednesday. The AUD was down to 65.25 cents against the USD.
A strong greenback is likely to stoke inflation in Australia because of higher prices of imported goods denominated in US dollars such as oil, complicating the RBA’s job to bring inflation down so that it can start lowering the cash rate.
While Trump’s policies will become more of a focus next year, for now, the RBA’s focal point is the Australian economy, where higher for longer is going to play out.
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I caught up with Troy Harris a Crypto Advocate and Author of “CRYPTO NEW RICH” in the week Bitcoin rose above US$80,000 after the recent Trump victory.
We explored what is going on here, and what factors could drive the price of Bitcoin even higher.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our first post Trump result Rant, Edwin and I consider the implications for property as rates higher for longer seem to be the order of the day. But some markets will perhaps still be buoyant because demand is so strong. Meantime we also look at how the property portals are being flexible with the truth, and we chat about people making poor property decisions, because they assumed….
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
We are at a significant point in the spring auction market as the prospect of early interest rate relief for home buyers becomes more uncertain in the months ahead, even though weekly clearance rates are so far holding steady, as overall property listings rise.
But within that less expensive property is shifting faster, driven by a further rise in those buying with the help of the family bank – with money from parents, grandparents or siblings, easing the purchase path, whilst other first time buyers are clubbing together to become joint owners of a new home, despite the potential risks.
More generally it’s another symptom of the broken housing market. If you want to learn more about this, and get the latest on our modelling, join us next Tuesday for my live stream at 8pm Sydney, where you can ask a question live. You can see the latest post code level analysis and we will also look at the broader trends.
This is a time for caution, given the rising levels of uncertainty, but that said, for many jumping from the rental sector to buying their own home could be equivalent to jumping from the frying pan into the fire in the current environment.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Property Markets Caught In Higher Rate Trap As Parents Help More To Buy!
In this week’s market update I am going to focus on the path of interest rates, as over this past week midst the US election we got a swathe of Central Bank rate decisions. The RBA held the cash rate on Tuesday, but the Fed, the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority all cut.
While Donald Trump won’t return to the White House for another 10 weeks, he’s already casting a shadow over central banks and with Trump 2.0 expected to boost growth and risk returning inflation, and actually there was (reasonable) speculation that the Fed might not cut rates after all, or at least hint heavily that it would pause at next month’s meeting. Certainly, some economists now expect fewer rate cuts from the Fed next year as trade tariffs may boost US inflation. That could reshape the easing path for central banks around the world, and add currency pressure on emerging markets.
Australia’s economic output could fall between 0.8% and 1.5%, or $20 billion to $37 billion if Trump imposed a suite of his economic policies including slashing America’s 21 per cent corporate tax rate to 15% KPMG estimated.
So all up, the level of uncertainly ahead has been amplified by the Trump victory, and the consequences will spill over into other markets. But we can expect higher interest rates in the months ahead, which is not good for those holding on by the skin of their teeth. This is going to get messy.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
