…Ain’t no fun and games! This is an edited version of our recent live show, which was a dose of reality from Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Alto Capital. Is the game up, and what are the consequences for investors, home owners and aspiring first time buyers?
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the idea of building up, not out, prefabricated housing, poor quality rental property, and the mythology of property listings. And at the end, a real horror show!
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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In our weekly market update we look at the latest signals from Jackson Hole, plus market reaction to the tech results, and forward expectations for rates and markets. Meantime in China, expect deposit rates to be cut, while in Australia, market weakness and a weak AUD does not bode well.
We must expect rates higher for longer – so when will the markets adjust?
Listing rise in a number of locations, suggesting potential home price weakness especially in Sydney and Melbourne. So the question is where is the lift coming from, what is driving it, and what are the potential consequences?
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Edwin, our property insider and I explore the question of under quoting and include original footage showing it in action! We also discuss the interpretation of data, and the potential impact of the latest developments in China.
The UK banking sector is being warned it faces penalties if it does not secure free access to cash for the UK population, including businesses, following waves of branch closures over more than a decade.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Treasury confirmed the guidelines the industry was expected to follow. The legal framework showed that no person or business should be further than three miles away from facilities to withdraw or deposit cash including a cash machine.
Meantime in Australia, the Regional hearings on Branch closures continues to highlight the high-handed approach taken by the banks. We clearly need a similar bill in Australia to that now in operation in the UK.
Access to cash is a human right and needs to be preserved, and if banks are not willing to provide appropriate banking services, a National Bank in needed to provide services, especially in in regional areas!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This week has continued to underscore the change in the market weather, following the hopium of July.
“We’ve long been overdue for a correction in equities, and it’s clear that higher rates have now become the catalyst for that,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president investment strategy at investment and wealth advisory firm Glenmede. “When the opportunity cost for capital becomes more competitive, valuations should correct on risk bearing assets, especially large cap equities which have been trading at significant premiums this year.”
And news that China’s seemingly eternally beleaguered property giant Evergrande has sought bankruptcy protection in New York only added to the strange feeling the financial world has turned upside down. While the problems in the Chinese property sector are far better understood than they were when Evergrande teetered two years ago, China’s post-lockdown economic troubles – perhaps best typified by the nation’s slide into deflation – adds a new and worrying link in what seems increasingly like a negative feedback loop.
As 2023 began, the consensus was clear: China’s economy would surge out of COVID-19 lockdowns, with monetary and fiscal stimulus providing tailwinds, while the US would fall into a brief recession that would likely lead to equity market correction and rate cuts.
But instead, the US economy has proven extraordinarily resilient and equity markets have surged 22 per cent from their October 2022 lows. But in the US, the climb in long-term bond yields to levels not seen in more than a decade is a reminder that economic strength can also weigh on investors.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another deep dive into the data with Journalist Tarric Brooker as we explore the recent events in China, the housing story (and political announceables), the mortgage cliff (or not) and lots more.
Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-18th-august-2023
Tarric’s article which we mention is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-fixed-rate-mortgage-cliff
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Well, We’ll Cover As Much As We Can! - With Tarric Brooker...
Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.
First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).
Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.
Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.
But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.
Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
