The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one.
Now Payroll jobs data says the same.
The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with Single Touch Payroll (STP) enabled payroll and accounting software each time the employer runs its payroll. The ATO provides selected employer and job level data items from the STP system to the ABS to produce statistics.
And according to the ABS Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month.
I should say Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted and are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction, have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting.
So we should note that in each release, as more complete data are received, payroll job estimates are revised. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the end of the financial year and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.
That said, the ABS says “The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting.”
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]
I am here running a project to measure financial stress in the UK, using the same methods as in Australia for the past two decades, and down the track I will be able to report and compare data across the country.
And this is timely, given that Gross domestic output is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level before 2024, according to just published forecasts from the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research. And worse, the UK is headed for five years of lost economic growth as the government fails in its goal to “level-up” the country’s regions and reduce inequality, an influential think tank says.
While output across the country will be lackluster, NIESR said, some regions will feel a sharper pinch. In London, it expects real wages will grow by up to 7% in the five years from the end of 2019 — but in the West Midlands, home to Britain’s third-largest city Birmingham, NIESR is projecting a 5% drop in inflation-adjusted pay.
The broader economy’s tepid pace of growth is one of the factors feeding a gap between the rich and poor, NIESR said. It predicted little real wage growth for low-income households, which also will have to shoulder higher levels of debt as food, energy and housing costs remain historically high.
By 2024, the UK’s poorest households could be facing a shortfall in their disposable incomes of 17% relative to 2019, compared to 5% for the richest households, the think-tank predicted.
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Show Me The Numbers! A deep dive into some of the fallacies which driven by MSM (and who pays the bills?) as we look at the latest from our property insider.
In a choppy trading session indexes rose in the morning, then wavered before turning negative so Wall Street closed lower on Friday after a report of slowing U.S. labor market growth, and all three major indexes posted weekly losses as investors braced for more possible downside surprises a day after disappointing earnings from Apple.
A mixed July jobs report showing fewer than expected job gains in July, but an uptick in wages that threatens a re-acceleration in inflation and so more FED action. Still the markets are holding the faith on a soft landing for the economy as the FED tightens. It still though might feel like a hard bump.
The weekly percentage declines for the S&P and Nasdaq were the biggest since March, with some investors taking profits after five months of gains due to economic data, disappointing earnings and rising Treasury yields.
The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs in July. Data for June additions was revised lower to 185,000 jobs, from 209,000 reported previously. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, unchanged from the previous month, exceeding expectations, taking the year-on-year increase in wages to 4.4%.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Upcoming: A Soft Hard Landing Or A Hard Soft Landing? [Podcast]
Spain might be an example we should be looking at, as their inflation has fallen below 2%. How did they achieve this compared with the UK or Australia?
Simply put they went beyond the simplistic interest rate lever, and used effective fiscal measures as well.
So today we look at lessons we can learn from Spain, and suggest there is indeed an alternative path, but one which requires a different linkage between monetary (interest rates) and fiscal (taxes and spending).
And, don’t forget, Central Banks created the inflation monster in the first place!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Is There Another Path To Beat Inflation? [Podcast]
The latest from the ABS on Living Costs highlights that for most households, real costs of living are rising faster than those represented in the CPI.
In fact, when rising mortgage costs are included (up 91.6%) some households are exposed to cost pressures much higher than represented in the CPI – and these are averages of course.
This is an edited version of a discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen. Has FOMO taken over as inflation eases down, or is this a head fake?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now With Damien Klassen [Podcast]
The RBA held the cash rate again, while the ABS reported strong mortgage refinance, though lower credit growth, and lower building approvals. And Consumer Confidence moved slightly higher, but still in negative territory.
You can join my live show later today as I discuss the latest with Damien Klassen from Nucleus Wealth. https://youtu.be/l9VpYwgEc-c
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The RBA Holds As Refinancing Goes Through The Roof! [Podcast]
