Once again, good news is bad news, as overall the US economy looks strong than expected, and the US economic surprise index kept by Citi, which tracks how much incoming data is exceeding or lagging expectations, jumped to its highest in more than two years. But this leads to the thought that rates will have to go higher, forcing markets lower.
Shares closed lower in New York, reversing earlier gains, in light volume on Friday. While the June jobs data helped to ease some concerns about the interest rate outlook, it also provided further justification for a July increase.
The U.S. economy added jobs at a slower-than-anticipated pace in June, but labor conditions remain largely tight as Federal Reserve officials prepare for an upcoming interest rate decision later this month.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Good News Is Bad News Again, As Rates Push Higher... [Podcast]
I go down the rabbit hole with George to discuss inflation, what really caused it and what needs to be done to fix it. We cover the role of central banks, global non-elected non-government entities, and cbdc.
As always these chats will question some underlying assumptions and some will find that disturbing…
Thanks to George for the edit.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Another Visit Down The Rabbit Hole: On Inflation [Podcast]
An important discussion about Banking Culture with Citizens Party Research Director Robbie Barwick. Despite the progress from the Senate Inquiry into branch closures, some banks (we name them) are doing the wrong thing.
Why? Because they can and because they have powerful political influence (for now).
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Banks Behaving Very Very Badly: With Robbie Barwick [Podcast]
Our latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as the US 2-year bond breaks above 5%.
How will inflation play out, what will the impact on home prices be, and have politicians got our interests at heart? Find out as we discuss more charts and viewer questions.
Steve from Canstar and I discuss the latest RBA decision, and its implications, and explore the impact on households and their budgets. What can be done?
This is an edited version of our latest live show. This week Damien Klassen from Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth discussed the markets and his latest analysis.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Replay: DFA Live - Investing Now - With Damien Klassen [Podcast]
In our latest market update we look back across the first half of the year, as markets have continued to drive higher in the light of higher rates and continued uncertainty.
As we move into July, the past six months on the markets have contained all types of contradictions, with prices spiked by AI, hopes the Fed will cut rates, when they lifted, and a more robust US economy than many had expected, perhaps promising higher returns ahead.
On Friday The S&P 500 rose 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% as markets prepared for the June 30 end point. The S&P 500 defied recession fears and a U.S. banking crisis to notch a 15.9% gain in the first half. The Nasdaq Composite powered ahead 31.7% for its biggest first-half increase in four decades.
The Australian share market rose 0.1 per cent on Friday, and a return of 9.7 per cent for the financial year.
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I caught up with Tony Locantro from Alto Capital in Perth , to discuss the current dynamics across markets, property and more. Managed to fill my bingo card again, but the messages are so relevant given the current state of play!
The latest from the ABS on retail turnover looked superficially stronger (and again the MSM went to town). But correcting for population growth and inflation it is a different story, and we know some are cutting back hard, while others are spending big on the offers and discount incentives. Nothing here to stop the RBA, in my view.
Latest data shows that more recent property purchases are being sold not long after buying, and some are going for a loss relative to their previous purchase prices (plus of course the various costs of transfer).
This is another sign of rising distress in the markets, with a focus on recent buyers (especially first time buyers in the past coupled of years) now faced with surging mortgage repayment costs. Areas in Melbourne and Sydney are most impacted so far.
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