The latest numberwang from the ABS showed only a slight fall in core inflation, though the headline dropped a bit. And of course the MSM were celebrating the “news”. These are the less reliable monthly series of course.
However, the underlying story is one of sticky wages inflation and some one-off changes which offset rises. And of course higher power costs will start to hit from July. So, nothing here to deflect the RBA.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Another rant with Edwin, ahead of our live show tomorrow (8pm Sydney time Tuesday). What is playing out is a potential win for the construction sector, but many home owners and prospective purchasers are facing an uphill journey in the current environment.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]
Last week was quite a week, with the start driving markets higher in an AI induced hallucination, before the reality of rates higher for longer hit home, thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in which he signaled more interest rate hikes ahead but vowed the central bank would proceed with caution. And the Bank of England lifted 0.5% to 5%, a 15 year high, as recession talk came to the fore, supported by a range of weak PMI’s.
The 10-Year-2-Year curve is burrowing southward, perhaps for a test of the inversion low earlier this year. While people tend to worry that a yield curve inversion is a trigger to economic recession, it is actually the steepening that follows that usually brings the trouble, whether it be inflationary or deflationary.
Japanese stocks slide after inflation grows more than expected Japan’s Nikkei 225 index slid 1.7%, while the TOPIX fell 1.5% after data showed consumer price index inflation grew more than expected in the 12 months to May. While core inflation read lower from the prior month, a reading that showed inflation excluding food and fuel costs surged to a 42-year high in May, indicating that underlying Japanese inflation remained high. The trend points to mounting pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy, even as the bank reiterated that it has no plans to alter its ultra-loose policy in the near future.
In Australia, a sharemarket sell-off gathered pace through Friday, erasing a week’s worth of gains for the S&P/ASX 200, as energy producers headlined the falls on a softening oil price. The benchmark index fell 1.3 per cent, to 7099.2, extending the day-earlier 1.6 per cent decline and leaving the market at its lowest since it closed at 7091.3 points on May 31.
The worst-performing sector was energy . The real estate and banking sectors also declined as investors worried about that the strength of the economy as the Reserve Bank of Australia lifts interest rates higher.
“The risk of recession in Australia is now very high,” said Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP. “Our assessment remains that the RBA has already done enough to slow the economy and bring inflation back to target, and we are seeing clear evidence of slowing demand in terms of falling real retail sales, falling building approvals, slowing plans for growth in business investment, slowing GDP growth and early indications of a slowing jobs market.”
The outperformance of Bitcoin recently has been tied in part to a filing last week from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, seeking approval for a spot-bitcoin ETF. If approved, it would be the first of its kind, and many experts believe it would increase accessibility and create demand for the asset. But So far dozens of attempts have been made to get a spot-bitcoin ETF approved but all have failed, and the SEC has not shown signs yet that it will back down.
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U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony reinforced the central bank’s objective to rein in inflation as he hinted at the likelihood of further interest rate hikes.
At the start of this year, markets were expecting a bumpy ride on the markets. Yet, the S&P 500 is up by almost 15% this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has advanced by almost twice that amount.
While it’s still not clear quite what great things have happened in the last six months to justify the extra optimism, it’s obvious that the excitement over AI has been essential to the positive surprise. The ChatGPT artificial intelligence service was launched just as strategists began unveiling their 2023 predictions, at a time when few at the time saw this artificial intelligence-charged rally coming.
But, if you exclude the most prominent AI stocks, the rest of the S&P 500 is broadly on course for the year people expected, and since then rate expectations are higher because inflation is more embedded.
The Bank of England lifted rates again today, At its meeting ending on 21 June 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 5%. Two members preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 4.5%. In Australia, the RBA needs to see unemployment rising to try to grip inflation, as rates stay higher for longer.
As a result markets are likely to be weaker for longer, to the point where some are arguing we are seeing a re-run of the 1999 dot com boom bust. We will see.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Face Reality For Now, As AI Deceives…. [Podcast]
CBA has joined the lenders cutting the buffers rate to 1% for certain borrowers, despite the Council of Financial Regulators saying 3% was appropriate. More extend and pretend.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
U.S. shares struck new highs for the year on Friday and helped lift world stocks to a 13-month peak, as rising bets that the Federal Reserve will skip a rate hike next week overshadowed worries about U.S. markets being drained of cash.
Surging enthusiasm for technology giants building consumer products based on artificial intelligence catapulted the US benchmark S&P 500 into a technical bull market on Thursday. On Friday, the blue-chip bellwether index was up more than 20 per cent from its lows and is at its highest level since August, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index chasing seven straight weeks of gains to soar 27.4 per cent year to date.
“As of today, the S&P 500 is back in a bull market,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at Briley Wealth, noting that the index finished Thursday with a 20% gain off its recent lows. “The one thing that could tip over the apple cart is an over-aggressive Fed.”
“It’s maybe the most hated bull market in the history of bull markets,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer of investment platform Orion OCIO.
“Sentiment was terribly depressed going into year-end and still remains on the bearish side.”
And just remember how narrowly based this surge is though as hot money seeks a home in an uncertain world.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from the ABS highlights the rising number of workers with multiple jobs in an attempt to cover the rising costs of living. Many women working part-time in healthcare and related sectors are impacted.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
More Households Are Taking Multiple Jobs To Try And Get By!
