Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest outlook for rates, inflation and recession.
Slides at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-8eb
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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This is an edited version of our recent live stream with mortgage Broker Chris Bates. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Data today showed Germany went into recession earlier in the year, and yet the ECB is firmly backing more rate rises. And US recession expectations are still on the horizon, even if a bit later, as rate rises bite.
From New Zealand and beyond, recession is expected – and it seems unlikely Australia can resist. Are we facing a recession we have to have?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Federal Government has [finally] declared Buy Now Pay Later products as credit products and has outlined a path to regulation in the months ahead, recognizing that the products can harm customers.
Big players like CBA pushed the Government into a more gentle regime than I think is idea,, but at least its a step in the right direction. But two questions, will BNPL appear on credit files, and what about those thousands of customers of these products who are already in over the heads. We note from our surveys significant growth in use of these products as inflation and interest rate rises bite.
This is too little too late!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
The latest from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida. we look at the latest numbers, how Governments are trying to “support” the market, and what happens when we get recognized….
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest Senate hearings on Regional Branch closures, and discuss the continued misdirection coming from the cost-cutting banks – justified – so called – by the migration to digital banking.
But as discussed during the hearings, the banks do not want to talk about what they are doing, and a peoples bank is required to offer a real alternative.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Just a couple of days ago, markets bounced on the back of hopes talks on raising the US debt limit were in play, on growing confidence a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt limit could be reached in coming days, with the benchmark S&P 500 climbing more than 2%. But as this came to a sudden halt, the optimism that had been building through the week fell away. As a result, U.S. stocks ended lower and the dollar lost ground on Friday as the negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling were put on hold, yet moving closer to the deadline to avoid default. Then reports were made suggesting talks had recommenced.
Initial reports that debt ceiling negotiations had reached an impasse rattled markets even as investors were scrutinizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks in a panel discussion for clues regarding next month’s interest rate decision. In his remarks, Powell said that uncertainties surrounding the lagging impact of past rate hikes and recent bank credit tightening made it unclear whether more monetary tightening will be necessary.
All this is creating febrile markets, where big players can trade the volatility. But others may be best on the sidelines!
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:00 Debt Ceiling Impasse?
2:15 Powell On Inflation, Credit and Rates
6:24 US Markets
11:08 Europe and UK
13:40 Asian Markets
17:15 Gold
18:32 Oil
19:40 Australian Markets
21:20 Crypto
22:54 Summary And Close
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my latest live stream, featuring Leath van Onselen, joint founder of Macrobusiness and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth.
We explored the consequences of the massive waves of migration now forecast in the budget pages (hidden in an appendix) and the potential impact of home prices and quality of life.
The original show is available here: https://youtube.com/live/_DxR9F4l20g
This version tidied up the audio, as we had renovators noises off during the live show.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the latest mortgage rate moves, and how this is playing out across households and banks. With the expectation that rates might well go higher still, what can be done?
https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The financial markets have been fighting the Fed since October of last year, especially since the start of this year, in two ways. The first involves bidding-up stock prices in anticipation of a ‘Fed pivot’, which is probably a self-defeating strategy. The second involves factoring lower interest rates into bond prices.
The backdrop is mounting economic uncertainty as Finance leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations warned on Saturday in a subdued end to a three-day meeting overshadowed by concerns about the U.S. debt stalemate and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The gathering in the Japanese city of Niigata came as global policymakers – already preoccupied by U.S. bank failures and efforts to reduce reliance on China – are now forced to grapple with a potential default by the world’s largest economy. While the communique made no mention of the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate, it figured constantly in discussions.
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Friday, led by weaker megacap shares following their recent rally, as data showed U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low. The Dow was barely lower in its fifth straight day of declines, the blue-chip index’s longest losing streak in two months.
May consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest since November. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading for May came in at 57.7, much lower than the 63 expected and down from 63.5 in April.
Treasury yields rose in the bond market following the consumer-sentiment report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury erased an earlier dip and climbed to 3.46 per cent from 3.39 per cent late Thursday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.
The risks are building, and recession is becoming more likely!
CONTENT
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:50 G7 Warnings
4:44 US Markets
6:50 US Consumer Sentiment Crashes
7:50 Bonds
9:15 Debt Default?
11:22 Europe
13:40 Oil and Gold
15:40 Asia
17:45 Australia
21:20 Bitcoin Halving
23:16 Summary and Conclusion
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
