Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Our latest Friday evening chat with Tarric Brooker. We answer follower questions on the mortgage market. And we got into some deep discussion about where prices may go!
Slides we discussed.
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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ASIC is warning credit providers and debt management firms that strong, targeted action against predatory lending, high-cost credit and misconduct impacting consumers experiencing financial difficulty is expected in the coming months as part of its continuing focus on protecting consumers.
Timely, given the high cost of debt, and the pressure many households and businesses are under. Remember more debt is not necessarily the answer!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The Bank of England lifted the cash rate by 0.25%, the 12th rise – to 4.5%. They held a press conference of over an hour, and mindful of the recommendations relating to the RBA review highlighting weakness in communication, I picked out some highlights from the UK session.
This includes the basic rationale for the rate rise, a discussion about the mortgage cliff, what caused inflation in the first place, and the impact on households. It was frankly a more grown up discussion – even if they still anchor inflation to supply chain shocks and energy issues. But their comments on Huw Pill recent comments were also significant.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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This weeks rant was recorded later than normal, but we explored some fundamental questions about the RE industry, and how agents are rewarded. No wonder we see some poor behaviors. And we look at the importance of keeping calm given the falls in listings, and what happens when people fail to take the right steps before purchase.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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Breaking news, as Westpac reverses its decision to close some of its regional branches, in response to the pressure form the Senate inquiry (which we managed to get up). I discuss this with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party.
The job is not done yet, and we need to ensure the Treasurer reverses his support for a totally independent Central Bank!
Giving up authority over the RBA – The ultimate BETRAYAL of the Australian people https://youtu.be/EA7FhBZxfuM
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The latest from our modelling showing more pressure piling on households as mortgage rates and rents rise faster than incomes, and costs of living continue to bite hard.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Dale Webster at The Regional has caught CBA out, as despite their promise not to close regional branches while the Senate Inequity is running, they are, by carefully defining down “Regional” to a very narrow definition, conveniently leveraging the ABS definitions, despite elsewhere calling these same regions Regional.
https://www.theregional.com.au/post/commonwealth-breaks-pledge-to-pause-regional-bank-closures
The Senate needs to hold CBA to account here. Write to your Senator, and also CBA management. This is plainly not acceptable nor within the spirit of their earlier statement! Well done Dale!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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We continue to see massive swings in prices, and I need to remind you that while major players continue to benefit from these wild gyrations in perceived value – as shown in recent trading results, (not least because they can programme trades using algos, and harvest income from the movements) – retail investors hardly benefit, because they are always behind the trade, unable to benefit from the dark pools and high-speed trading. It is an unequal game.
Take Friday, for example, where U.S. stocks rallied with the Dow posting its biggest one-day percentage gain since Jan. 6, as shares of Apple surged more than 4% after upbeat results and U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market.
Adding to the bullish momentum, regional bank shares rebounded from declines tied to the collapse of First Republic Bank. Analysts upgraded a number of lenders they said were oversold. PacWest Bancorp rallied 81.7% and Western Alliance Bancorp jumped 49.2%, while the KBW regional bank index advanced 4.7%.
Apple’s quarterly results also cheered investors worried about a potential recession. The iPhone maker’s shares hit their highest level in about nine months, and the stock ended up 4.7% in its biggest daily percentage gain since November. The stock was the biggest positive influence on all three major U.S. stock indexes.
The U.S. Labor Department report showed job growth accelerated in April and wage gains increased solidly, suggesting the labor market has stayed strong despite recent interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
All in all, the wild market rides continues…
CONTENT
0.00 Start
0.13 Introduction
1:00 US Markets
2:10 US Labor Markets
6:30 US Earnings
7:00 Europe
9:05 Oil
9:30 Gold
11:57 Asia
13:52 Australia
17:00 Crypto
17:50 Summary and Close
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The latest RBA’s Statement On Monetary Policy (More than 80 pages) said very little which was new, with inflation not expected to land within their target zone until 2025, with lower growth and higher unemployment. They reconfirmed an expectation rates could still go higher.
They did try to defend corporate profits as not driving inflation…. hum… but not very successfully in my book.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/may/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The continued pressures on US Regional Banks highlight the risks created by the changed interest rate environment – even if the scenarios are different from the 2007-8 GFC. But banks are under pressure as margins are compressed, and are needing to revisit their strategies, as both ANZ and Macquarie reposted this week. In fact, a credit crunch could well be on the cards.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
