Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited edition of my live discussion about the current state of the property market, with Mortgage Broker Chris Bates from wealthful.com.au
My latest Monday evening chat with our property insider, Edwin Almeida.
We look at the latest numbers, so unusual properties for sale, and discuss that landlords and tenants need to consider.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A short segment where I answer some of the top questions from my inbox relating to the current property dynamics in Australia.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. So much to kick around, with the help of some powerful slides which are available at
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-14th-october-2022
Housing prices falls: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-housing-prices-on-course-for
US Core Inflation: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/2008-vs-2022-inflation-really-is
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market review we will as always begin in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end up with a local Australian summary – bearing in mind that our market pretty slavishly follows those in the Northern Hemisphere, which had an up day on Thursday, and a down day on Friday.
Volatility continues to rage across most asset classes, and this is now having real world consequences on our superannuation, or pension savings, which in Australia are forced by Government. As we will see the losses are mounting up.
But first, it was a bad end to a wild week with U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as worsening inflation expectations kept intact worries that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike path could trigger a recession, while investors digested the early stages of earnings season. The previous day the stronger than expected inflation data showed inflation remained stubbornly high and this shocked the market into a volatile rise. But in the last session of a volatile week, equities opened higher, then reversed course after data from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October but inflation expectations worsened as gasoline prices moved higher. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate rose to 5.1%, above the 4.7% seen in September. A climb in inflation expectations, a closely watched metric by the Federal Reserve, comes just a day after data showed worse-than-feared inflation pressure.
“Yesterday you had this amazing, powerful intraday rally that was completely wrong,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Then you look at the Michigan numbers this morning that’s consistent with what we’re seeing in the economy, and the stock market now is down to reflect that number. That’s correct.”
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current economic outlook with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness.
Links to upcoming events: Meet the Managers Forum Wednesday 19/10/22 6:30-8pm:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-managers-tickets-410294761677?aff=wtw%20to%20register.Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
When JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the United States and the global economy could tip into a recession by the middle of the next year, its time to adopt the brace position.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Dimon said.
He said the S&P 500 could fall by “another easy 20%” from the current levels, with the next 20% slide likely to “be much more painful than the first”.
Runaway inflation, big interest rates hikes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unknown effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policy are among the indicators of a potential recession, he said in an interview to the business news channel.
Earlier this year, Dimon had asked investors to brace for an economic “hurricane”, with JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. investment bank, suspending share buybacks in July after missing quarterly Wall Street expectations.
In June, Goldman Sachs had predicted a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, while the economists at Morgan Stanley placed the odds of a recession for the next 12 months at around 35%.
“We continue to expect that the Fed will hike by 75bp in November, 50bp in December, and 25bp in February to reach a terminal forecast of 4.5-4.75%,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Fed vice chair Lael Brainard said Monday that a “second-half rebound will be limited, and that real GDP growth will be essentially flat this year.” The slowing growth, however, doesn’t appear to be dissuading the Fed from its path of monetary policy. “Monetary policy will be restrictive for some time to ensure that inflation moves back” to the central bank’s 2% target,” Brainard added.
Edwin is back for another property rant, and we extend our discussion to Melbourne and Brisbane property as well as Sydney. So much happening. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is my edit of a discussion I had today about the Property Market as part of an online event run by Greg Owen from Goko which included Harry Dent, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente and Robert Kiyosaki.
I discuss the current property market, how we got here, and what may happen next.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is our latest weekly market review, in what was another wild ride.
So now we know. The Dow skidded on Friday, as a stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report quelled hopes of a Fed pivot and shifted investor focus to the prospect of another jumbo-sized rate hike next month.
The U.S. economy created 263,000 jobs last month, above the 250,000 economists had expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5% as fewer than expected people entered the labor market. Wage growth of 0.3% was in line with forecasts but slowed to 5% from 5.2% in 12 months through September.
While this is a “welcome development for the Fed,” according to Jefferies, it won’t provide a ”justification for slowing from the recent pace of 75 bp rate hikes, so we expect another one at the November meeting.” The CME Fedwatch has a close to 80% probability of 75 basis points.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams who also serves as vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said on Friday the U.S. central bank has more work to do to lower inflation and rebalance economic activity in a more sustainable way, and he warned that the unemployment rate will most likely rise as part of that process.
“We need to get interest rates up further and basically get interest rates above where inflation is,” and that could lead the central bank towards a target rate of around 4.5%, Williams said Doing so will better balance supply with demand “in a way that brings down inflation quickly.”
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
