I am here running a project to measure financial stress in the UK, using the same methods as in Australia for the past two decades, and down the track I will be able to report and compare data across the country.
And this is timely, given that Gross domestic output is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level before 2024, according to just published forecasts from the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research. And worse, the UK is headed for five years of lost economic growth as the government fails in its goal to “level-up” the country’s regions and reduce inequality, an influential think tank says.
While output across the country will be lackluster, NIESR said, some regions will feel a sharper pinch. In London, it expects real wages will grow by up to 7% in the five years from the end of 2019 — but in the West Midlands, home to Britain’s third-largest city Birmingham, NIESR is projecting a 5% drop in inflation-adjusted pay.
The broader economy’s tepid pace of growth is one of the factors feeding a gap between the rich and poor, NIESR said. It predicted little real wage growth for low-income households, which also will have to shoulder higher levels of debt as food, energy and housing costs remain historically high.
By 2024, the UK’s poorest households could be facing a shortfall in their disposable incomes of 17% relative to 2019, compared to 5% for the richest households, the think-tank predicted.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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