The latest RBA chart pack, a distillation of data to the end of the year, contains a few gems, which underscore some of the tensions in the consumer sector.
First, relative the the ultra-low cash rate, actual mortgage rates are rising – no surprise given the rise in mortgage stress we are registering.
Next, home loan approvals are on the slide – expect more of this as tighter underwriting standards bite, and many interest only borrowers are forced to switch to higher cost interest and principal loans.
Home price indices are trending lower (but still net positive growth overall at the moment). Expect more falls in the months ahead.
Household debt continues higher. Now double disposable income, and we have some of the most highly in debt households in the world. Lending growth is still three times income, so this is likely to continue higher.
All this is bearing down on household consumption as real income growth stalls. The savings ratio is falling, as households tap these to prop up their finances, OK in the short term, but unsustainable longer term.
