The Reserve Bank has today released a consultation paper proposing changes to loan-to-value restrictions (LVRs) to further mitigate risks to financial stability arising from the current boom in house prices. The proposals simplify the current policy by applying two nationwide speed limits for owner-occupier and investor lending.
New Zealand house prices have increased by around 50 percent since 2010, driven by strong immigration, low mortgage rates and sluggish housing supply. With house prices becoming increasingly disconnected from underlying household incomes and rents, there is significant potential for house prices to fall very rapidly if the factors currently supporting the market reverse. Average house prices in New Zealand are now around 6.5 times average household income. When combined with the preexisting imbalance built up prior to the GFC, the house price-to-income ratio is further from its historical average than in almost any other OECD country
Rising investor defaults pose significant risks to the financial system, with a growing body of international evidence suggesting that loss rates on investor lending are significantly higher than owner-occupiers during severe housing downturns. There are caveats to applying evidence from other economies to New Zealand, including that mortgage origination standards can vary significantly across countries and time. These problems are mitigated by focussing on the differential between default rates for investors and owner-occupiers identified in international studies. Moreover, the tendency for higher investor default rates is consistent with a range of structural characteristics of investor loans in New Zealand. Direct evidence for New Zealand or Australia is limited as there has not been a severe housing downturn for many decades.
“The banking system is heavily exposed to the property market with residential mortgages making up 55 percent of banking system assets. Investor lending has been increasing rapidly and is a significant contributing factor to the current market strength. The proposed restrictions recognise the higher risks associated with such lending,” Governor Graeme Wheeler said.
Investor lending is growing strongly, rising from around 28 to 36 percent of overall mortgage lending over the past eighteen months. This suggests that the share of investor loans on bank balance sheets has increased significantly (especially given that more than half of investor loans have been on interest only terms in recent months). Despite tighter LVR restrictions, the investor share of sales has increased in both Auckland and the rest of New Zealand. This suggests that many Auckland investors have been able to increase borrowing capacity by
revaluing their existing properties.Under the proposed new restrictions:
- No more than 5 percent of bank lending to residential property investors across New Zealand would be permitted with an LVR of greater than 60 percent (i.e. a deposit of less than 40 percent).
- No more than 10 percent of lending to owner-occupiers across New Zealand would be permitted with an LVR of greater than 80 percent (i.e. a deposit of less than 20 percent).
- Loans that are exempt from the existing LVR restrictions, including loans to construct new dwellings, would continue to be exempt.
These proposed new restrictions would take effect on 1 September 2016 and simplify the LVR policy by removing the current distinction between lending in Auckland and the rest of the country.
Mr Wheeler said: “The drivers of the housing market strength are complex and action is required on many fronts that extend well beyond financial policy. Broad initiatives to reduce the underlying housing sector imbalances need to remain a top priority.
“A sharp correction in house prices is a key risk to the financial system, and there are clear signs that this risk is increasing across the country. A severe fall in house prices could have major implications for the functioning of the banking system and cause long-lasting damage to households and the broader economy.
“LVR restrictions to date have improved the resilience of bank balance sheets by reducing banks’ exposure to riskier mortgages. This policy initiative is intended to further improve the resilience of bank balance sheets, and it will assist in restraining credit and housing demand.
“We expect banks to observe the spirit of the new restrictions in the lead-up to the new policy taking effect.”
Consultation concludes on 10 August.
Mr Wheeler said that the Bank is progressing its work on potential limits to high debt-to-income ratio lending, which would be a potential complement to LVR restrictions.
“We have had positive initial discussions with the Minister of Finance on amending the Memorandum of Understanding on Macro-prudential policy to include this instrument.”
