You may recall that I often say, there is not one property market but many micro markets that behave in quite different ways. But at the capital city level, Melbourne appears to be in some strife in terms of price falls at the moment.
Overall, it certainly looks like the combined impact of state policy, higher interest rates, and also bad planning decisions, combined with significant interstate migration away from Melbourne, which is offsetting still too high net overseas migration, is translating into property weakness. That said, of course property still remains over expensive relative to income to a stupid amount, while the restriction of international studies this year will weaken demand for rental property, so while the currently rental growth is still 7.8% over the part year according to CoreLogic, it may well begin to weaken ahead, putting more pressure on property investors in the area.
It does indeed look like for now Melbourne is a property problem child, but it also to me highlights the exposure that Perth has given the risks to mining demand from a weaker China. And as the RBA minutes reinforced yesterday, its not likely we will see rate cuts anytime soon.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion with the founder of Spachus, the property data portal, a true independent in the Australian real estate market, which provides unbiased and transparent data across the country. Their data is updated every 24 hours so you can get the latest trends and insights first! Lets see what is really going on!
In tonight’s show our Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I chuckle at the “innovative” policy for first home buyers being mooted in the USA (no, these do not work: see Australia!), look at price growth in Perth, and a horror story in Logan City, Brisbane, as well as the normal deep dive in the numbers. And at the end a really useful tip, as usual!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
This is the final party of my July Financial Pressure analysis, where we answer specific questions from our audience.
First part here: https://youtu.be/eRM8alMOi4g Second part here: https://youtu.be/sCW1_91LDQo
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
You Asked, We Answered: More Households In Financial Stress!
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, while also covering the action in commodities and crypto along the ways.
My analogy of traders on a boat, running from one side of the deck to the other still holds, as the recession iceberg melts away for now, and an immaculate US soft landing is back in vogue. The change in sentiment was driven by a flurry of data which showed US economic resilience, and this drove stocks to their best week this year, coupled with dip buyers stepping in after the recent rout. So, Wall Street posted its best seven-day run in almost two years while the VIX slid back to 14.80.
Of course, traders have struggled to forecast where the economy is headed – and the recession fears that helped drive the recent pullback could resurface again just as quickly as they faded. On top of that, the US elections and geopolitical tensions are adding other elements of uncertainty.
But beneath the surface, there are some reassuring signals. Specifically, the latest jobs data was better than previous ones, the CPI data showed a drift in the right direction, along with producer prices, consumer sentiment improved with the August University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reading of 67.8, up from July’s 66.4. and retail sales were up. Just don’t mention the poor construction data with weak July housing starts and building permits data. Central bankers are being quote, data dependent, so no surprise then when new data arrives traders change tack.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President on Friday told National Public Radio that the U.S. economy is not showing signs of overheating, so central bank officials should be wary of keeping restrictive policy in place longer than necessary. “You don’t want to tighten any longer than you have to,” Goolsbee said. “And the reason you’d want to tighten is if you’re afraid the economy is overheating, and this is not what an overheating economy looks like to me.”
Note also the earlier selloff hit a relatively small slice of the market, with nowhere near the breadth of the routs set off by the Fed’s rate hikes, the pandemic and other pivotal events. And while valuations are at risk of another recalibration if the economy does wind up sputtering, the S&P 500 during the recent retreat held above a threshold that – to technical analysts, at least – telegraphs investors’ continued confidence.
The Dow ended up 0.24%, the S&P 500 rose to around 5,555 up 0.2% For the year, the S&P 500 is up more than 16% and is within about 2% from its July all-time closing high. The NASDAQ rose 0.2%. Most megacaps gained, with Nvidia leading the charge, up 1.4% and has bounced more than 20%, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has gained more than 14% from recent lows. Small-cap shares, which had been strong performers in July, have also recovered from recent lows, with the Russell 2000 up nearly 5%. Nike had its longest winning streak in more than eight years and up 0.88% on the day though Applied Materials sank 1.86% after a sales forecast that disappointed investors looking for a bigger payoff from artificial intelligence spending. If you are an AI fan, like Wedbush, then the outlook looks rosy, saying the tech sector is on the brink of substantial growth, underpinned by the expanding influence of AI. Just remember Cisco, though. The firm emphasized the foundational role of cloud and AI technologies in the ongoing “4th Industrial Revolution.”
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Return To Plan A (For Now) Says The Market As New Data Swings!
On Friday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock and her new look team were questioned by the House Economics Committee in Canberra for most of the morning. And I watched it all, so you don’t have to! There was very little new at one level, because the bank had recently released its statement on monetary policy and rate `decision.
Recall that the Reserve Bank left the key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35% and maintained its hawkish rhetoric. Money markets and economists still reckon the RBA’s next move will be a cut, though they’re split on the timing. Traders are betting December will be the beginning of the easing cycle, while the consensus of economists is it will only start sometime in 2025.
It’s clear from Governor Bullocks opening statement, that Australia’s central bank remains some way off easing monetary policy because inflation is proving persistent and will only return back to the target range late next year. “The board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation,” Bullock said in her opening statement to a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Friday. “It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts.”
Supporting the RBA’s caution, data this week showed Australia’s labor market continued to add jobs at a solid pace while wage growth remains elevated. See my earlier show “When things don’t add up at the RBA. Separate figures pointed to a small rebound in consumer sentiment and business confidence is holding up.
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You have to ask the question: are the ABS stats on employment, which were released today, meaningful? Because according to the data for July, a record share of Australians are either working or looking for a job and about 58,000 people found work last month. The increase in employment was not enough to stop the jobless rate from rising to 4.2 per cent last month from 4.1 per cent in June, (though less than 1% on a two decimal rounding) as the share of the working-age population with a job or looking for one climbed to a record high of 67.1 per cent.
This was better than market expectations for gains of 20,000 and accorded with the RBA’s view that the labour market is cooling, but only very gradually, so it appears to show its holding up in the face of a rapidly cooling economy. This will keep pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain high interest rates.
The first question of course is where did all if the extra workers come from? Perhaps the mega high immigration where the influx of migrants, who are relatively likely to work, helps to explain the data, as well as financial pressure on local workers to grab more work, and multiple jobs to try and make ends meet. There is no good analysis to split these two factors apart, perhaps surprisingly, or perhaps not! But we know multiple job holders continues to rise.
Across the states, Victoria had the highest unemployment rate of 4.6% in seasonally adjusted terms. Western Australia had the lowest at 3.7%, reflecting the very different economic stories across the states. The participation rate was highest in the NT and ACT, at 73.6% and 72.9% respectively and lowest in Tasmania at 60.3%.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Australian Employment Booms Even As Unemployment Rises!
Interesting question, who you believe more the markets, or Central Bankers. Of course those in Central Bank land, will claim data dependence, and moving targets, and as RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned recently it’s a risk to listen to “false prophets” on interest rates; and yet after several false dawns, New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates, embarking on an easing cycle much sooner than previously indicated as The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Official Cash Rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.25% Wednesday in Wellington.
The RBNZ’s pivot to easing is a rapid change of tune after it said in May it considered raising rates and wouldn’t cut them until the second half of 2025. The bank’s concerns over sticky domestic inflation are being alleviated as the economy teeters on the brink of its third recession in less than two years and unemployment rises. The RBNZ’s new forecasts show the OCR falling further in the fourth quarter and by about 100 basis points by the middle of next year.
So will the RBNZ’s move influence Australian interest rates. Probably not because inflation in Australia is way worse, and Government spending and support significantly higher. RBA governor Michele Bullock last week ruled out the prospect of rate cuts this year. But the RBA’s significant lag in monetary policy will catch up to the Australian economy as it has done in New Zealand.
Generally, I think Australia will see rates higher for longer because of poor Government policy, as I discussed in yesterdays live show with Leith van Onselen. But the rate trend will be lower ahead, but not back to close to zero, which was in its own right a policy error and helped to fire up inflation in the first place. At least Kiwi’s can breath a little easier, though you can probably thank lower migration for that – Australia please note!
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This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness as we pick apart the latest economic myths across property and the economy.
Original show is here: https://youtube.com/live/bT-hxYrjJ1A
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Sandcastles And Other Myths: With Leith van Onselen
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, go across to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. And which ever way you look at the past week, it was a volatile perfect storm driven by weird US jobs data, Middle East tensions, and Japan’s policy shift which together managed to ignite global market chaos. Ahead, I think traders need prepare for an extended period of uncertainty and volatility.
They continue to swing from one side of the deck to the other, as Investors over-reacted swiftly and decisively, dumping stocks in a classic risk-off maneuver, from a far weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report but then ran back, on slightly stronger data a week later. Many economists reckon the reaction to the data was overblown given the numbers may be skewed by immigration and Hurricane Beryl and better-than-expected jobless claims data on Thursday also supported that view, sending stocks rallying.
The market panic that began in the U.S. quickly spread to Asia, with Japan bearing the brunt of the sell-off. The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark stock index, suffered its most catastrophic decline since the infamous Black Monday of 1987, plunging by a staggering 12% within just six hours. The Japanese yen surged in value by over 10% in less than a month, triggering stop orders and forcing numerous macro hedge funds to liquidate their long USD/JPY positions. Thus, the unwinding of the yen carry trade triggered a vicious cycle of selling pressure, which spread into other markets. But then we got a pull back from the BOJ on potential rate hikes and on Tuesday, S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and bitcoin reversed to the upside and a sense of normalcy started to returned to the markets.
The VIX, which had traded roughly between 12 and 20 for most of the year until last Friday, surged to above 65 — a level associated with outright investor panic (but note the VIX futures did not), and commentators like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers suggests there are technical issues with the VIX, “My understanding is that because there are some illiquid instruments that go into the calculation of the VIX, the VIX had a somewhat artificial move on Monday,” Summers told Bloomberg. “Since that is so widely watched an indicator, issues of liquidity, issues around how it settles, I think should be studied by the relevant parties in the industry and the regulator — the SEC.” The VIX closed down 14.4 per cent to 20.37 in Chicago on Friday.
Investors also await next week’s readings on U.S. consumer prices and retail sales for July, which could provide fresh evidence on the chances of a soft landing for the American economy.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
After The Perfect Storm, How’s The Market Wreckage, And What’s Next?
