Solve The Housing Crisis By Building Smaller, Darker, Higher Homes?

Housing affordability is one of the biggest pressures facing the Australian community and the Government has committed to building 1.2 million new, quote well-located homes across Australia by mid-2029. This is all but impossible, on current trends, and of course housing pressures have been exacerbated by super-high migration.

The NSW Productivity and Equality Commission just released a report: Review of housing supply challenges and policy options for New South Wales.

In summary, New South Wales needs to build 377,000 homes by mid-2029 under its housing targets. The Productivity and Equality Commission recommends Higher-density zones around train stations would double in size and extend further into Sydney’s eastern suburbs and north shore. They are recommending design standards be relaxed to allow the construction of smaller apartments without access to parking, storage or direct sunlight. They say government spending priorities would shift from infrastructure projects like new metros and motorways, to projects that support rapid housing supply. And there would be more migration opportunities for construction workers, to address a critical skills shortage.

Even then I suspect targets wont be met. But to me, by not talking about the demand side of the equation – driven by too high migration they are missing the elephant in the room. As a result, they are proposing we build higher, smaller darker homes – as high-rise living is forced more widely on the population. This risks further degrading the standards of living for many. True while some may be willing to pay less to get anything to live in, the trade-off and compromises are enormous.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Solve The Housing Crisis By Building Smaller, Darker, Higher Homes?
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DFA Live Q&A Replay: Stressed: A Deep Dive Into The Latest Household Data

This is an edited version of a live discussion about the findings from our surveys and models as we look at the latest in mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress across Australia. We will have our post code engine online so you can suggest specific post codes to examine.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Stressed: A Deep Dive Into The Latest Household Data
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More this week from our property insider Edwin Almedia, on the dynamics of the markets, as listing rise and interest rates stay high. We also look at the battle between the RBA and The Treasurer, and at the Grenfell Tower UK report which really spotlights the severe defects across the building system and which is directly relevant to Australia too!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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Markets Caught Saying Hello To A Hard Landing!

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way, and a reminder, this show is data rich, not shouty stupidity like so much on socials these days, and the purpose is to help me understand what is really going on at the moment. If it helps you too, that’s great!

As often in September, market uncertainty rippled through markets this week, adding fuel to an already-volatile period which points to more of the same ahead.

The flows of data remained mixed, and U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday after closely watched jobs numbers showed labor market momentum slowing more than expected, suggesting a narrower path for the U.S. to achieve a soft landing, defined as the Fed being able to cool inflation without badly damaging economic growth. Beyond that, investors are still grappling with a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a tight U.S. election and worries over stretched valuations, plus numerous geopolitical tensions, and a resetting of AI tech related expectations to boot.

So, we saw an ebbing risk appetite across markets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% on Friday and has lost nearly 4.3% in the past week, its worst weekly decline since March 2023.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 last month, compared with expectations for a 165,000 advance. The prior two months of gains were lowered, another sign that the US labour market is weakening.

Positioning remains extreme, and investors are complacent about the risks that a soft landing could turn into something nastier. September often brings volatility on markets, but don’t ignore the direction of travel.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Caught Saying Hello To A Hard Landing!
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The Australian Monetary Policy Civil War: With Tarric Brooker

In my latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, we look back at the recent stoush between the Reserve Bank and the Government as inflation remains sticky, and the Treasurer says Government spending is helping to bring inflation down.

Plus, thanks to Tarric’s excellent slides we parse the latest data and delve into the mechanics of high migration, home prices, and falling real GDP per hour worked.

You can see the slides here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-6th-september

Here is the article Tarric referred to in the show: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/burnout-economics-and-aussie-household

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Australian Monetary Policy Civil War: With Tarric Brooker
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Kiwis See Average 16% Home Price Falls From Peak, But Hopium Ahead!

In this show we look at the latest property data from New Zealand, from the REINZ and CoreLogic.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) released its July 2024 data at the end of August. The national median price decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, from $770,000 to $753,000, and decreased by the same amount month-on-month. For New Zealand, excluding Auckland, the median price decreased 1.5% year-on-year from $680,000 to $670,000. Month-on-month, the median price also decreased by 1.5%.

But here is the REINZ spin. “In July, we saw an increase in sales across the country compared to last year and June 2024. As more listings hit the well-supplied market, buyers are slower to make decisions, extending the average Days to Sell. Despite ongoing economic challenges, early signs suggest potential improvement, indicating favourable conditions in the residential property landscape might be on the horizon,”

The value of New Zealand homes continued declining in August, according to property data company CoreLogic. The median value of NZ dwellings was $811,583 in August, down 0.5% from July. August was the sixth consecutive month the national median value has declined. It’s now down $31,000 since its summer peak in February, and is 16.8% lower than its all time high set in January 2022.

“This all adds up to likely further restraint on property values, although the potential impact of lower mortgage rates can’t be ignored.”

So, as listings rise of course this puts downward pressure on asking prices as prospective purchasers have more choice and negotiating power. The RBNZ rate cut will certainly help the market, especially if further cuts follow. But lower net migration, and the cold winds of recession will continue to haunt the market.

It is certainly worth considering the fate on Australian home prices in the light of what happened in New Zealand, as rate cuts and recession grind the market down. But the one sure thing, true in both markets is that Real Estate Industry Hopium remains fully intact!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Kiwis See Average 16% Home Price Falls From Peak, But Hopium Ahead!
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Worst Ever Great Idea: Australia IMPORTS LNG!

I have been talking about the absolutely stupid Government policy of gas supply, as a few big multinational companies continue to pump and export gas owned by Australia abroad, using energy from said gas sufficient to support Australian need, in order to liquidity it for export.

The stupidity stems from the lack of an east coast reservation approach (something which Western Australia has done well with a mandated domestic gas reservation policy and there energy prices are lower as a result), with exporters making massive profits (most of which do not hit Australian shores either) thanks to high international demand.

Australia does not have a physical shortage of gas so much as an artificial one, given most of the country’s supplies are exported via long-term contracts to lucrative markets in North Asia.

Gas has become a proxy fuel in two ways. First the marginal price of gas – which is roughly 5 times what it should be – drives the cost of electricity, which is also high – even after government support for households. In addition, the use of gas as a transition strategy despite its high contribution to the climate predicament we are in, blunts other more sustainable long term options. Gas is just as much a problem as oil and coal, a harmful fossil fuel that will doom the world to rising temperatures and ever more pollution.
But nevertheless here we are, because successive Governments appear under the thumb of big gas, and mumble on about Australia’s reputation risk if they acted in the interests of Australians!

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is forecasting that within just a few short years, supplies of gas on the east coast could fall well short of demand at peak times, typically in winter.

So now, for the first time, and in spite of Australia’s position as one of the world’s biggest gas exporters, the country is preparing to do something that was once unthinkable. The scene of the crime of a place I know well, Port Kembla in New South Wales, near Wollongong and about 100 k’s south of Sydney.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Worst Ever Great Idea: Australia IMPORTS LNG!
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Smashed!

Well now we know. Australia’s annual GDP growth rate fell to its lowest level since December 1991, outside of the pandemic as consumers hunkered down in the face of elevated borrowing costs and stubbornly sticky inflation.

Annual GDP growth has slowed markedly from a decade average of 2.4%, partly due to the RBA’s rate tightening campaign through 2022-23 to rein in inflation. The cash rate is currently at a 12-year high of 4.35% and policymakers have signaled they’re in no rush to cut any time soon.

Australia’s Q2 GDP was worse than economists expected, growing by only 0.2% over the quarter to be up only 1.0% year-on-year. The result missed analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% quarterly rise.

With Australia’s population still growing aggressively through net overseas migration, population increased by 0.6% in Q2, meaning that per capita GDP declined by another 0.4%. In fact, Australia’s per capita GDP has now declined for six consecutive quarters and seven of the past eight quarters, to be down 2.0% from its peak.

As you will know if you have been following my surveys, the household sector is especially hurting as higher household earnings were partly offset by an increase in income tax payable and mortgage payments and so despite the population surge, Household spending actually fell 0.2% in the second quarter, detracting 0.1 percentage point from GDP growth. Discretionary consumption was hit particularly hard. This puts a number on the political pain of falling living standards from the inflationary cost-of-living squeeze, made worse for mortgage borrowers by the RBA’s higher interest rates.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Smashed!
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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments At Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we review the past volatile month and talk about what is ahead for the markets.

Original show here with chat: https://youtube.com/live/SSvtwrLRNEw

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks show we highlight the link between Government policy and home prices (rather than the economic theory of supply and demand), touch on the risks of renovations, as costs spiral and look at the latest listing and price trends as we move in the spring selling season.

Edwin Almedia, our property insider says, Melbourne is a bellwether. We will see.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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