More households are feeling the pinch in the run up to Christmas according to our latest research and as demonstrated in the results to the end of November 2024, which we look at today.
We start with an overview of “financial stress”, defined in cash flow terms, then look at mortgage, rental, investor and overall stress across the country, as we dive into the top postcodes and consider the future scenarios for interest rates.
If you want a deep dive into a specific post code, drop it into the comments below, and I will make a subsequent show including the granular data I hold.
The full detailed set of data is available via our Patreon programme: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
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The latest auction clearance rates data confirms what we already knew, the traditionally busy spring selling season is ending with a whimper as it falls to the lowest this year amid weak buyer demand. Of course, clearance rates are a poor proxy for property market health, but the low quality of many listed properties, combined with over aggressive pricing are part of the story.
Add in expectations of higher for longer interest rates with ANZ pushing out a rate cut to May 2025, “We are shifting our view on the start of the RBA’s easing cycle from February 2025 to May 2025. We now also only expect two 25 basis point rate cuts in total [down from three],” said ANZ Bank’s Adam Boyton on Friday.
In addition expected falls of say 5 per cent in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne next year are reinforcing the trend. Borrowing capacity is also continuing to be crimped.
Also, costs of living pressures are hitting home, with an article over the weekend covering a Red Bridge survey which said that more than one third of Australians have delayed medical treatment because of the costs of living crisis, while almost half have put off buying a home, car or other purchase. 28 per cent of those polled say economic conditions have caused them to put off having children, while 20 per cent say they have delayed their decision to get married.
As the AFR says, this week was a big test of demand, with more than 1000 auctions scheduled in Sydney and Melbourne, and over 2600 scheduled nationally. However, just 63.4 per cent of homes sold under the hammer, based on preliminary auction numbers tallied by CoreLogic, down from 65.3 per cent last week. This matched the result of the first week of November, which was the lowest early clearance rate of the year. Once all the results are collected, it is expected that the final clearance rate will be below 60 per cent for the seventh consecutive week. “The auction market ended the spring selling season with a whimper,” said CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless.
Domain preliminary results also mirror the decline in clearances, mirroring price falls in some markets especially in Melbourne and Sydney, and on Monday, CoreLogic will release its monthly Home Values Index, which will show further declines in house prices in both Cities.
The two leading indicators for housing prices – auction clearance rates and the amount of stock on market – suggested price drops in those cities would persist, SQM’s Louis Christopher said.
Bottom line is the property market is taking an early holiday, and 2025 looks pretty shaky especially in the major markets.
Renegade Seminar: you can join the The World Economic Renegade Summit where Leading economist Harry Dent, Tom Panos and myself will explore what is really going on, and how you can take control of your financial future. This event starts next Wednesday Sydney time at 7pm
You won’t regret taking the time, and by the way there is $5,000 worth of Gold for one lucky attendee. You can secure your place via the link here: mesiti.com/north
Note Edwin’s RANT will be on Wednesday this week.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Property Market Takes An Early Break, As Prices Ease…
Speculation about Japanese rate hikes drove a rebound for the yen, which ended with the biggest weekly gain vs the USD since July. The dollar fell 1.18% on the day to 149.76 yen, under pressure after Japan’s government finalised a stimulus budget and inflation in Tokyo came in hotter than economists forecast.
ASX property stocks were the worst performing, sliding 0,7 per cent. Goodman Group shares dropped 0.8 per cent to $37.91 and Westfield parent Scentre was down 1.1 per cent to $3.68.
The falls come as economists from three Australian banks – ANZ, AMP and Bank of Queensland – push out their forecast for a first cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to May, from February previously.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin briefly traded above $US98,600 btu was last at $96,534. Regardless of the current price level, some predict significant growth is possible with growth through the remaining days of 2024 to hit a high of $200,000. This is of course the point, markets can hope, but Bitcoin and the markets more widely continue to be driven on hopium. Just don’t look down.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Vertigo: Markets Still Grinding Higher (Just Don’t Look Down!)
Part two of the government’s stalled housing legislation finally passed federal parliament on Thursday. The Build to Rent tax reform bill aims to boost investment in apartment blocks designed and constructed for rental occupancy and retained in single ownership.
Other than as purpose-built student accommodation, this form of development remains rare in Australia.
At the same time, Build to Rent does not inherently contribute to affordable housing.
At least in its initial form in Australia, it is typically a “premium product”, mainly in well-connected locations and targeted at moderate to high income earners.
And it might suck construction activity away from other projects too!
Oh, for some joined up thinking!
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Build To Rent Solution Won’t Solve The Real Problem!
Well, the federal parliament has passed legislation to ban people under 16 from having an account with some social media platforms. In doing so, it has ignored advice from a chorus of experts – and from the Australian Human Rights Commission, which said the government rushed the legislation through parliament without taking the time to get the details right. Or even knowing how the ban will work in practice.
Though passed, it was also appallingly mismanaged. The ban is very controversial, with many experts highly critical. That made it all the more necessary for the legislation to have proper parliamentary scrutiny. More than 15,000 submissions were received by the Senate committee that looked at the bill. The committee took just one morning’s evidence on Monday, and on Tuesday tabled its report.
Kudos for the Senators who stood up against the bill, down to the wire, as it passed the Senate.
While it remains unclear exactly which social media platforms will be subject to the ban, those that are will face fines of up to A$50 million if they don’t take “reasonable steps” to stop under 16s from having accounts.
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This week is Asbestos Awareness Week in Australia. Asbestos Awareness Week provides an important reminder as we head into end of year period when people may be looking to undertake renovation or DIY work on older properties and the need to be vigilant in managing safety on site.
If you’re working on homes built before 1990, you need to assume asbestos could be present in elements such as cladding, eave sheets, electrical switchboards, internal linings and even in pipework, roofing and floor underlays.
It is vital to engage a licensed assessor for inspection and testing, and if asbestos is found, ensure it’s removed by a licensed professional.
Check out our YouTube Channel where we feature Gill’s research into the whole asbestos scandal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cocjr_xgqDI&list=PLBY81JyA5KYW_5nJ_rkFMjLpR5Be_ctHj
4,000 people are dying each and every year across Australia from exposure to Asbestos, a process which can take many years from initial exposure, as I know from personal experience, as my wife Gill died from exposure.
We launched Asbestos Awareness Australia, a charity to raise awareness and to campaign for reform. Unfortunately politicians do not want to touch this live rail, despite one in three homes containing asbestos, the fact we continue to import board containing Asbestos and the rising number of deaths from exposure among women.
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The New Zealand Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Official Cash Rate to 4.25% from 4.75%.
The bank’s updated projections are consistent with another 50-point reduction at its next decision on Feb. 19, Governor Adrian Orr told reporters at a press conference. “But it’s also conditional on economic projections panning out,” he said.
“Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025, as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending,” the bank said. “Employment growth is expected to remain weak until mid-2025 and, for some, financial stress will take time to ease.”
This is a very different path compared with the RBA’s 4.35% well into 2025.
Sometimes a short sharp shock is better!
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Kiwis See Another Rate Cut As The RBNZ Takes A Different Path!
The latest monthly CPI data from the ABS showed headline inflation going sideways and underlying inflation rising, despite the massive Government support to households across electricity and rents.
Nothing here to signal rate cuts in the short term, and the RBA will continue to look through to the underlying rate of 3.5% which is up from last month and higher than their target.
Of course, politically speaking we will hear loads about Government support, and bearing down on inflation, despite the fact that many of the actions of Government are driving inflation higher.
Its another classic case of numberwanging, because the real costs for people are so much higher.
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The Under 16 Ban on Account access to Social Media has been steamrollered through the lower house, and will be guillotined through the Senate without debate.
Questions of substance are being thrown off the table in an unseemly mess, being supported by both major parties. Why? Because under the hood this is actually the last battle between old media and new media, and both major parties must support the hidden hand.
As a result the door is flung open for greater digital control, in line with top-down directives.
Parents, children and ordinary Australians are caught in the cross-fire.
Kudos to small band of Senators who have stood against the bill. This will not end well for major parties.
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This is an edited version of a live discussion about the conundrum of property investing. Some are selling as quickly as they can, others are piling in. We look at the latest data to figure out what is going on. The key is a realistic assessment of net investment yield, which varies across locations and property types.
You can ask a question live!
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Investing: Nightmare Or Great Deal?
