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Stars Align To Create A Bubble Dream; But Is A Nightmare Around The Corner?

This is our weekly market update where we review the market action starting in the US, then Europe, Asia, and Australia and also cover commodities and crypto along the way. This is a data packed segment, so be warned!

This week markets drove higher, pretty much across the board, thanks to the fall out from the Federal Reserve is slashing interest rates, more benign US economic data and China finally moving more determinedly to bolster growth as China’s central bank lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, and with more fiscal measures expected to be announced before a week-long Chinese holiday starting on Oct. 1. Listed shares of Chinese companies jumped on the latest series of stimulus measures from Beijing to boost the domestic economy, including those on international markets.

As a result, we saw upswings in markets across the globe, and this despite weaker oil prices and rising conflict in the middle east. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.25%, to an intraday record high. Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index closed at a record high, ending up 0.5% at 528.08. China’s blue chips jumped 4.5%, bringing their weekly rise to 15.7%, the most since November 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also gained 3.6% and was up 13% for the week, its best performance since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.33%, to 42,313.00, the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, to 5,738.17 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.39%, to 18,119.59. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted a third straight week of gains. Nvidia’s 2.2 per cent decline was the reason for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping on Friday, pointing to a report that China is urging local companies to stay away from its chips. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon shot to 7.236.16 while the Russell 2000 was at 220.33.

The best performer of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), which rose 2.47% while the worst performers of the session was Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), which fell 1.67 and International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) was down 1.16% to 220.84.

“It’s a bubble dream,” according to Bank of America equity strategist Michael Hartnett. His data had another $US10.9 billion flowing into US equities in the week ended September 25.

“Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of the view Fed and China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk,” Hartnett wrote.

So in the context of overvalued stocks, markets are still betting on higher ahead, which is quite possible but before the surface there are significant cross currents and risks. So volatility will remain the watch word, and the bubble dream might yet turn to nightmare. We will see.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Stars Align To Create A Bubble Dream; But Is A Nightmare Around The Corner?

00:00 / 00:21:39

Save Free Speech: Fight The Disinformation Bill!

This is an edited version of a recent live show I did on Adam Stokes channel relating to the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred the provisions of the bill to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by 25 November 2024.

You have JUST SEVEN Days! as submissions close on the 30 September 2024.

This bill would severely curtain unfettered free speech by putting onerous responsibilities on social media platforms across issues as wide as electoral, health, social and economic. In practice the Government will define “truth” and will essential silence alternative voices.

You have a limited opportunity to make your views know before 1984 type conditions arrive!

Adams Live stream: https://youtu.be/jhiRS7_TE9Y

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/MisandDisinfobill

Contact details:

Committee Secretary
Senate Standing Committees on Environment and Communications
PO Box 6100
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Phone: +61 2 6277 3526
ec.sen@aph.gov.au

https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/say-no-albaneses-orwellian-disapproved-information-censorship-bill

About this inquiry: The bill proposes to amend the Broadcasting Services Act 1992 and would make consequential amendments to other Acts to establish a new framework to safeguard against serious harms caused by misinformation or disinformation.

The bill would provide the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) with new regulatory powers to require digital communications platform providers to take steps to manage the risk that misinformation and disinformation on digital communications platforms poses in Australia. These would include obligations on providers to assess and report on risks relating to misinformation and disinformation, to publish their policy in relation to managing misinformation and disinformation, and develop and publish a media literacy plan.

The bill would also provide ACMA with new information gathering, record keeping, code registration and standard making powers to oversee digital communications platform providers.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Save Free Speech: Fight The Disinformation Bill!

00:00 / 01:32:00

Is The Postal Bank Winning? With Robbie Barwick…

This is a good news story, as I discuss with progress being made on the move towards the creation of a Postal Bank in Australia, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.

https://citizensparty.org.au/campaigns/public-post-office-bank

But we need to keep the pressure on to ensure that the National Bank is developed in the way to benefit ordinary Australians and Businesses, so there is more still to do. And keeping pressure on our elected representatives will be essential!

Links to the two shows we discuss:

LPOG: https://youtu.be/MHGZwK0vFgw?si=XA2zj0XJfbmTTsgc
Malcolm Roberts: https://youtu.be/n1B1wKHcz5g?si=TD3ZakbamzdAfyy8

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is The Postal Bank Winning? With Robbie Barwick...

00:00 / 00:25:13

Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA says they will look through in the policy deliberations.

The RBA, is facing increasing pressures at home to lower borrowing costs, with politicians sparring over the outlook on interest rates ahead of an election due by May 2025. But Bullock said the RBA won’t be dragged into politics as it is splitting with a global easing cycle as it waits for inflation to abate.

So today I want to look at the RBA statement, then delve into the detail from the inflation numbers and finally try to figure out what this all means.

The RBA last month warned the rapid rise in government outlays was one of the factors prolonging high inflation. The bank’s statement was a political headache for Dr Chalmers, and Ms Bullock subsequently softened the central bank’s stance, saying government spending was not the “main game” for inflation.

At the federal level, government spending on childcare, aged care and disability care surged by more than 20 per cent over the past year, while spending on public servant wages jumped 14.5 per cent. Spending on the NDIS has been a major driver of the explosion in government spending. The scheme, which is forecast to cost $49 billion this financial year, is growing at about 20 per cent per year and is on track to cost more than the age pension within a decade.

Since the 2019 calendar year, the underlying cost base in the construction sector has grown by a whopping 36 per cent, compared to around 21 per cent in the non-mining market sector as a whole.

As the public sector expands, productivity growth would temporarily slow as more resources poured into sectors such as healthcare and education, where productivity is about one-third lower than the private sector.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

00:00 / 00:23:05

Seven Days To Stop 1984!

In this special show I am joined by Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, and Economist John Adams, from In The Interests Of The People to underscore the need for people to make their views known to Government on the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred the provisions of the Communications Legislation Amendment (Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 (the bill) to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by 25 November 2024.

You have JUST SEVEN Days! as submissions close on the 30 September 2024.

You have a limited opportunity to make your views know before 1984 type conditions arrive!

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/MisandDisinfobill

Contact details:

Committee Secretary
Senate Standing Committees on Environment and Communications
PO Box 6100
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Phone: +61 2 6277 3526
ec.sen@aph.gov.au

https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/say-no-albaneses-orwellian-disapproved-information-censorship-bill

The bill would also provide ACMA with new information gathering, record keeping, code registration and standard making powers to oversee digital communications platform providers.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Seven Days To Stop 1984!

00:00 / 00:39:58

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: When Buildings Go Bad: With Edwin Almeida

This is an edited version of a live discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida as we discuss things that go wrong in buildings and yet issues which are often missed. Using our Building Surveyor skills we will explore some specific cases, and also draw out some important lessons for those engaging with property.

Original version with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/nWWu3atcqoE

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: When Buildings Go Bad: With Edwin Almeida

00:00 / 01:39:28

Lies, Statistics And The “Facts” About Foreign Students And Rents…

If you want a case study of how data is used to mislead, rather than help define a problem, then look no further than the recent stoush surrounding foreign students and their impact on the housing crisis.

We have as you know seen a massive upswing in migration to Australia, after the drought through the COVID years. The current high levels continue as the latest stats show with the current Government target set to be blown past by the end of the year.

A significant element in the numbers relate to overseas students arriving in Australia ostensively to study, but often as a proxy to gain longer term residency.

Overseas students typically spend several years studying in Australia. This means that many among the record wave of students that arrived last year will be here for some years to come.

A total of 767,120 people arrived in Australia on temporary student visas over the 12 months ending June 2024. These were spread across higher education, vocational education and training (VET), schools, and English language courses.

Some argue that from a purely economic perspective, a high number of international students is good for Australia’s economy and that Education is Australia’s second largest export, bringing in around $36.4 billion over the 2023 financial year.

Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy said international enrolments should not be blamed for housing woes. “Using students as cannon fodder in the migration battle risks the viability of our universities and as national accounts show, the growth of our economy,” he said.“International students contributed more than anything to Australia’s GDP growth last year.

While it was certainly one of the factors that prevented Australia from entering into a technical recession last year, the truth is this is a statistical trick, as we have highlighted before, because many overseas students also work in Australia, and often send funds back overseas. See my recent discussions with Cameron Murray and Tarric Brooker, who have pealed back the truth – though the same lie about the economic contribution of foreign students is trotted out regularly by academics trying to defend their mismanaged of the economics of education, and to resist the proposed cap on students ahead.

The move has sent the education sector spinning, at a time when Government funding for universities is taking a back seat, and when nabbing vast numbers of overseas students have been required to make university budgets work. And of course, a whole new industry designed to pull overseas students into the country, with dubious educational value is in question.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Lies, Statistics And The “Facts” About Foreign Students And Rents...

00:00 / 00:14:35

Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!

This is our weekly market update, designed to help me digest what is happening, starting in the US, probably the most consequential market in the world, then we move to Europe, Asia and end in Australia and also cover commodities and crypto on the way.

On Friday shares on Wall Street were mixed in a narrow range as investors continued to assess the outlook for US interest rates. Why 50 basis points, not 25, and was this a minor course correction, aimed at bringing a soft economic landing, or a sign the FED had left things too long and was trying to head off a lurking recession risk? And was there a hint of political here ahead of the US election? It’s really not clear. And as for that mythical R star – the level at which rate neither detract from, or add to growth, remains like the quest for the holy grail.

One top Federal Reserve policymaker signalled a willingness to cut rates at a fast pace. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that “inflation is running softer than I thought”. He’s now estimating that the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — has risen over the last three months at an annualised rate of less than 1.8 per cent, which is below the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.

But separately, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said she was concerned this week’s 50-basis-point rate cut was “premature”, countering expectations of another similar move anytime soon. “I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 per cent target.” Bowman dissented at this week’s meeting, the sole policymaker to do so, voting for a quarter of a percentage point reduction instead.

We know the FED will continue to be data dependent and next week’s US data highlight will arrive on Friday with August’s PCE report.

Gold’s reaction to the most-dovish Fed decision in years proved lackluster. Futures were last at 2647.20, up 1.39% across the week. Plenty of traders thought gold would surge after an outsized rate cut birthing a new cutting cycle. And with top Fed officials projecting many more cuts, it is going to be big. Gold did rally initially on that revelation, but quickly reversed into a larger intraday loss. Fed rate cuts are bullish for gold, but speculators’ gold-futures positioning is overextended.

Australian shares scaled another record high on Friday, tracking a global wave of optimism that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a much-hoped-for soft landing for the world’s largest economy. The S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 per cent to 8209.5, the highest closing level in its history. It climbed to an intraday peak of 8246.2 – setting a record for the sixth straight session. On the week, it gained 1.3 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!

00:00 / 00:27:57

Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020.

But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and has signalled that significant further cuts would be made over the next 18 month. Business confidence took a leg up, bouncing to a net 51% positive from just 6% in response, banking on the end of the recession which has gripped the country.

Net Migration is also falling away rapidly, according to statistics New Zealand, and we are seeing more property coming on market with inventories up by 30% compared with last year, while sales volumes are down compared with last year and more property being subsequently withdrawn from market failing to find a buyer at their desired asking price.

So net net, it seems likely that as we go into spring and summer in New Zealand, demand might be higher thanks to lower rates but offset by lower migration, while supply is higher but transaction volumes are lower. Which begs the question, are we seeing the property market turning?

Well, the latest report, or should that be marketing document from the REINZ for August shows “signs of increased confidence, optimism and activity compared to the previous year. While the overall sales volume slightly declined, several regions reported notable increases in activity, and year-on-year listing numbers continue to rise”.

All up, its probably too soon to talk about an uptick in property values, but there may well be more property coming on to the market, and an uptick in sales to boot. Further rate cuts will help, and of course the loser regulations on investment property may also assist, but migration driven demand is falling.

Its probably way too early to declare victory, for now. REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market. I would remain more cautious. Auckland still seems to be more exposed while some South Island markets though smaller are more positive. And there is considerable uncertainty ahead.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?

00:00 / 00:08:34