The latest NAB Quarterly SME Survey, to June 2016, suggests the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses, with SME business conditions highest in six years, and confidence above long-term average despite some increased pressure on cash flow, and falling forward orders.
Business conditions for SMEs gained further traction in Q2, rising by 2 points to +6 index points, a level not seen since 2010 and comfortably above the long-run average of +4. It is especially encouraging that low and mid-tier firms reported notable improvements in conditions and confidence in the quarter. In particular, low-tier firms reported positive business conditions for the first time in 2 years.
All three components of business conditions rose in the quarter. Trading and profitability conditions surged ahead, reaching levels not seen since 2009. Employment conditions however remain lacklustre. The optics of conditions by firm size were also quite encouraging, with all size categories reporting positive results for trading and profitability conditions, although demand for labour by low-tier firms remains soft.
Meanwhile, SME business confidence rebounded to +5, above the long-term average of +2 index points and more than reversing the fall in the previous quarter. It is worth pointing out that the survey was conducted prior to the Brexit decision and federal election and therefore does not reflect the possible shifts in sentiment due to these political events. However, our latest monthly NAB Business survey for June, which was polled during Brexit (but before the election), did not show an adverse impact on confidence.
In level terms, all SME industries except for construction reported positive business conditions in Q2. The health sector outperformed other industries in the quarter, followed closely by business services, while retail was the weakest after construction. Meanwhile, there has been more evidence of late that the wholesale sector is experiencing a recovery in its business conditions.
All states, except for WA, reported better business conditions in Q2, with QLD showing the biggest improvement again (up 10 points to +11). NSW and VIC continued to outperform, while WA has lagged further behind the national average. All states were more confident in the quarter, with VIC being the standout, while WA was the least confident and the only state to report negative confidence.
Leading indicators were stronger in the quarter as well, with capacity utilisation rising to levels last seen in 2011, while capex reached the highest level since 2007. Overall, SME input price indicators point to relatively contained price pressures, while easing price growth for retailers is consistent with the subdued inflation outlook.
