Tag: ABS

Inflation Sticks To The Script: Probably….

We got the next tranche of monthly inflation data from the ABS today, which showed that the Consumer Price Index indicator edged down to 2.4%, which is below economists’ estimate of 2.5%. The headline figure has now been inside the RBA’s 2-3% band for seven straight months.

One important point of distinction with the monthly Indicator is that, while it will include prices for all the items in the CPI basket, not all these prices will be updated each month, so there are large helping of fudge in the numbers, which is why the RBA tends to value the quarterly data more.

That said, even the trimmed mean measure, which smooths out volatile items such as food and energy and is the focus of the RBA’s attention, played ball, decelerating to 2.7% in February from 2.8% in the prior month. The monthly inflation figures are volatile and are unlikely to affect the outlook for interest rates.

The outcome was the equal-lowest rate of underlying inflation since December 2021 and was consistent with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view that inflationary pressures had cooled considerably over the past year.
The slowdown was driven by a cooling of housing inflation, including rents and power prices, and a decline in fuel costs, the ABS said.

So what is ahead? Well of course we will get the more complete quarterly data in a month’s time, which the RBA is more likely to consider in their rate decision making. But while headline inflation fell to 2.4 per cent last month, it is expected to increase this year as state government electricity bill subsidies expire, even though the federal government has extended the support for power bills another 6 month, and as a result of this use of tax payer funds, the ABS recently revised down the weighting given to power bills in their inflation calculation, which just shows what $9 billion of your money can do!

All this means it is unlikely we will see an April Fool’s Day surprise next Tuesday.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Inflation Sticks To The Script: Probably….
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Inflation Sticks To The Script: Probably….

We got the next tranche of monthly inflation data from the ABS today, which showed that the Consumer Price Index indicator edged down to 2.4%, which is below economists’ estimate of 2.5%. The headline figure has now been inside the RBA’s 2-3% band for seven straight months.

One important point of distinction with the monthly Indicator is that, while it will include prices for all the items in the CPI basket, not all these prices will be updated each month, so there are large helping of fudge in the numbers, which is why the RBA tends to value the quarterly data more.

That said, even the trimmed mean measure, which smooths out volatile items such as food and energy and is the focus of the RBA’s attention, played ball, decelerating to 2.7% in February from 2.8% in the prior month. The monthly inflation figures are volatile and are unlikely to affect the outlook for interest rates.

The outcome was the equal-lowest rate of underlying inflation since December 2021 and was consistent with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view that inflationary pressures had cooled considerably over the past year.
The slowdown was driven by a cooling of housing inflation, including rents and power prices, and a decline in fuel costs, the ABS said.

So what is ahead? Well of course we will get the more complete quarterly data in a month’s time, which the RBA is more likely to consider in their rate decision making. But while headline inflation fell to 2.4 per cent last month, it is expected to increase this year as state government electricity bill subsidies expire, even though the federal government has extended the support for power bills another 6 month, and as a result of this use of tax payer funds, the ABS recently revised down the weighting given to power bills in their inflation calculation, which just shows what $9 billion of your money can do!

All this means it is unlikely we will see an April Fool’s Day surprise next Tuesday.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Another Messy Employment Story…

The ABS released their latest and now infamously wobbly employment data today which reported a surprising dropped in February, declining by 52,800 — led by full-time roles — compared with a forecast 30,000 increase. The outcome was the sharpest fall in employment since December 2023. The jobless rate held at 4.1%, reflecting a fall in participation rate to 66.8% from a revised 67.2%.

We know that since COVID Public Statisticians around the world have been struggling to measure real employment and unemployment accurately – for example the ONS in the UK all but publically admitted their figures were rubbish. At very least, while The ABS adjusts the data for seasonal patterns around hiring, firing and employee leave, these past patterns have recently changed making its report all but meaningless.

That said, the jobless rate remained at 4.1% and the central bank expects it to be 4.2% in June this year, so the surprise drop in employment is unlikely to bring forward another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the jobs market is still historically strong.

“Today’s data shows some of the expected softening in the labor market,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. “While there are still challenges in our economy and people are still under pressure, we still have the lowest average unemployment of any government in the last 50 years.”

The RBA’s next meeting will take place over March 31-April 1.

Nothing here to justify rate cuts against the impact of tariffs incoming!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Another Messy Employment Story…
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Another Messy Employment Story…

The ABS released their latest and now infamously wobbly employment data today which reported a surprising dropped in February, declining by 52,800 — led by full-time roles — compared with a forecast 30,000 increase. The outcome was the sharpest fall in employment since December 2023. The jobless rate held at 4.1%, reflecting a fall in participation rate to 66.8% from a revised 67.2%.

We know that since COVID Public Statisticians around the world have been struggling to measure real employment and unemployment accurately – for example the ONS in the UK all but publically admitted their figures were rubbish. At very least, while The ABS adjusts the data for seasonal patterns around hiring, firing and employee leave, these past patterns have recently changed making its report all but meaningless.

That said, the jobless rate remained at 4.1% and the central bank expects it to be 4.2% in June this year, so the surprise drop in employment is unlikely to bring forward another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the jobs market is still historically strong.

“Today’s data shows some of the expected softening in the labor market,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. “While there are still challenges in our economy and people are still under pressure, we still have the lowest average unemployment of any government in the last 50 years.”

The RBA’s next meeting will take place over March 31-April 1.

Nothing here to justify rate cuts against the impact of tariffs incoming!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

RBA In Dilemma Land As CPI Sticks…

The less meaningful monthly CPI was released today by the ABS. The headline was that the reported annual CPI was unchanged, while the underlying rose just a tad. But remember this monthly series is only partial, being goods heavy while the services sector is the problem child at the moment, which is why the RBA prefers to look at the quarterly numbers, which are a couple of months away.

Annual trimmed mean inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel was 2.8 per cent in January, up slightly from 2.7 per cent in December.

Nothing here to move the dial.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
RBA In Dilemma Land As CPI Sticks…
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RBA In Dilemma Land As CPI Sticks…

The less meaningful monthly CPI was released today by the ABS. The headline was that the reported annual CPI was unchanged, while the underlying rose just a tad. But remember this monthly series is only partial, being goods heavy while the services sector is the problem child at the moment, which is why the RBA prefers to look at the quarterly numbers, which are a couple of months away.

Annual trimmed mean inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel was 2.8 per cent in January, up slightly from 2.7 per cent in December.

Nothing here to move the dial.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Australian Jobs Up, Unemployment Up, But What’s Under The Hood?

The RBA adjusted down their expectation of the level of unemployment across Australia to 4.2% this week, a level which they expect to remain unchanged for at least two years. Then today we got the latest from the ABS on this frankly fuzzy series of data which showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1 per cent in January. 44,000 people found work last month while the number of unemployed increasing by 23,000 people. In short, the jobs market remained “incredibly strong”. That said, some of the increase in unemployment reflected more people than usual with jobs in January who were waiting to start or return to work.

Indeed, the ABS hinted the rise in the unemployment rate in January could reverse in February, saying there were more people than usual with jobs who were waiting to start work last month, but who were technically counted as unemployed.

The employment picture is more complex than might first appear. Given the still high migration levels into Australia, there are more people looking for work, and this is putting the squeeze on some older, perhaps more experienced and therefore expensive locals.

Second, the continued growth of the non-market sector, funded by Governments at federal and state levels means a continued expansion of jobs in specific sectors, like the care sector, but which are not necessarily improving the poor levels of productivity in the economy.

Third as the ABS hints at, the numbers are a bit wobbly given changes to seasonal factors, and also the swapping the sample groups.as well as their strict definition of who is classed as unemployment. Roy Morgan’s alternative method gives a different picture.

Finally, the significant gap between Victoria with unemployment rates of around 4.7%, and other states, suggests that state policy is also important, and on that measure, Victoria is failing again.

Bottom line, overall the jobs market will continue to hold the RBA back from cutting rates again, even if under the hood things are far from rosy. To that extent, words and figures do differ.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Australian Jobs Up, Unemployment Up, But What’s Under The Hood?
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Australian Jobs Up, Unemployment Up, But What’s Under The Hood?

The RBA adjusted down their expectation of the level of unemployment across Australia to 4.2% this week, a level which they expect to remain unchanged for at least two years. Then today we got the latest from the ABS on this frankly fuzzy series of data which showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1 per cent in January. 44,000 people found work last month while the number of unemployed increasing by 23,000 people. In short, the jobs market remained “incredibly strong”. That said, some of the increase in unemployment reflected more people than usual with jobs in January who were waiting to start or return to work.

Indeed, the ABS hinted the rise in the unemployment rate in January could reverse in February, saying there were more people than usual with jobs who were waiting to start work last month, but who were technically counted as unemployed.

The employment picture is more complex than might first appear. Given the still high migration levels into Australia, there are more people looking for work, and this is putting the squeeze on some older, perhaps more experienced and therefore expensive locals.

Second, the continued growth of the non-market sector, funded by Governments at federal and state levels means a continued expansion of jobs in specific sectors, like the care sector, but which are not necessarily improving the poor levels of productivity in the economy.

Third as the ABS hints at, the numbers are a bit wobbly given changes to seasonal factors, and also the swapping the sample groups.as well as their strict definition of who is classed as unemployment. Roy Morgan’s alternative method gives a different picture.

Finally, the significant gap between Victoria with unemployment rates of around 4.7%, and other states, suggests that state policy is also important, and on that measure, Victoria is failing again.

Bottom line, overall the jobs market will continue to hold the RBA back from cutting rates again, even if under the hood things are far from rosy. To that extent, words and figures do differ.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Looking Beyond The Rate Cut Hype…

Yesterday we got the first RBA rate cut in four years rate of a quarter-percentage point to 4.1% as inflation has eased from more than 6% to 3.2% underlying, but the bank also stressed it won’t ease as aggressively as the markets anticipate and also flagged significant but as yet unquantifiable geopolitical and policy uncertainties globally.

The media seemed almost over jubilant at the cut, talking of massive relief for households with the much-recited data from Canstar showing that a million dollar mortgage would be $154 dollars a month cheaper in interest payments. Remember most Australian mortgages fluctuate with the RBA rate.

Then today we got the latest wage growth data from the ABS which showed that Australia’s wage growth slowed further in the final three months of last year, up an annual 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with an upwardly revised 3.6% in the prior period and matching economists’ estimate, the biggest wages slowdown for any full year since 2009.

Politicians are quick to see any opportunity to spruik, and in a press conference in Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the rate cut was “the soft landing that we have been planning for” and offers a “relief that Australians need and deserve.” Bullock distanced herself and the board from politics, but I suspect they are all too aware of the political currents. The recent JWS opinion poll shows and cost-of-living and housing have been among the top concerns for the electorate.

Like the RBA, the treasurer didn’t declare victory in the fight against inflation, sharing the central bank’s concerns about the uncertain economic outlook going forward.

Forget the media hype, there is a long slow road for households mortgaged up to the hilt, and little here to reignite the fuse on the housing market; at least for now.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Looking Beyond The Rate Cut Hype…
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Looking Beyond The Rate Cut Hype…

Yesterday we got the first RBA rate cut in four years rate of a quarter-percentage point to 4.1% as inflation has eased from more than 6% to 3.2% underlying, but the bank also stressed it won’t ease as aggressively as the markets anticipate and also flagged significant but as yet unquantifiable geopolitical and policy uncertainties globally.

The media seemed almost over jubilant at the cut, talking of massive relief for households with the much-recited data from Canstar showing that a million dollar mortgage would be $154 dollars a month cheaper in interest payments. Remember most Australian mortgages fluctuate with the RBA rate.

Then today we got the latest wage growth data from the ABS which showed that Australia’s wage growth slowed further in the final three months of last year, up an annual 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with an upwardly revised 3.6% in the prior period and matching economists’ estimate, the biggest wages slowdown for any full year since 2009.

Politicians are quick to see any opportunity to spruik, and in a press conference in Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the rate cut was “the soft landing that we have been planning for” and offers a “relief that Australians need and deserve.” Bullock distanced herself and the board from politics, but I suspect they are all too aware of the political currents. The recent JWS opinion poll shows and cost-of-living and housing have been among the top concerns for the electorate.

Like the RBA, the treasurer didn’t declare victory in the fight against inflation, sharing the central bank’s concerns about the uncertain economic outlook going forward.

Forget the media hype, there is a long slow road for households mortgaged up to the hilt, and little here to reignite the fuse on the housing market; at least for now.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/