Tag: ABS

Early Rate Cut Hopes Dashed By Strong Australian Jobs Data!

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November as the nation’s golden streak of hiring gains extended, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to elevated interest rates and prompting traders to pare back bets of a February cut.

As Alex Joiner from IFM noted “Solid employment Growth in November and a tick down in the participation rate sees the unemployment rate get back down below 4%. It seems the RBA doesn’t particularly need to be in a hurry to cut rates, a February move still has a lot of optionality. It was a big full time number is encouraging and underscores a very solid print”.

Employment grew 0.2 per cent in November 2024, following an average monthly rise of 0.3 per cent since the middle of 2024, in line with recent population growth. “The recent growth in population has boosted the labour supply as employment has kept up with population growth,” the ABS noted.

Compared with Canada, the Eurozone and US, Australia seems stuck with higher inflation, yet the jobs market stays strong. This suggests the labour market continues to be relatively tight,” the ABS said.

Nothing here to suggest the RBA will cut soon. More pressure on households.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Early Rate Cut Hopes Dashed By Strong Australian Jobs Data!
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Early Rate Cut Hopes Dashed By Strong Australian Jobs Data!

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November as the nation’s golden streak of hiring gains extended, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to elevated interest rates and prompting traders to pare back bets of a February cut.

As Alex Joiner from IFM noted “Solid employment Growth in November and a tick down in the participation rate sees the unemployment rate get back down below 4%. It seems the RBA doesn’t particularly need to be in a hurry to cut rates, a February move still has a lot of optionality. It was a big full time number is encouraging and underscores a very solid print”.

Employment grew 0.2 per cent in November 2024, following an average monthly rise of 0.3 per cent since the middle of 2024, in line with recent population growth. “The recent growth in population has boosted the labour supply as employment has kept up with population growth,” the ABS noted.

Compared with Canada, the Eurozone and US, Australia seems stuck with higher inflation, yet the jobs market stays strong. This suggests the labour market continues to be relatively tight,” the ABS said.

Nothing here to suggest the RBA will cut soon. More pressure on households.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The RBA Faces Mixed Signals, But Will Likely Stand Firm On Rates…

The RBA meets Tuesday, with economists and markets predicting no change to rates. Indeed, not til later next year will rates likely come down, barring some external shock. Governor Michele Bullock said last month that inflation remains too high to consider a cut in the near term.

At the heart of the problem is the Governments spending a greater share of the economy, and stoking jobs in the public and related sector, like healthcare. States are also spending like drunken sailors, and the federal government is throwing more money at households via the electricity subsides. This is all inflationary.

On the other hand, the RBA did not take the cash rate as high as many other central banks did. As a result we have a shallower path, dodging a recession by the rate water torture will continue for longer. The upshot has been a cautious central bank that has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for the past year. By comparison, the Federal Reserve may cut for a third straight meeting this month.

So we will muddle through into 2025, and possibly face an election with rates at 4.35%. This could well become a cat fight with the RBA caught in the muddle, sorry middle.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The RBA Faces Mixed Signals, But Will Likely Stand Firm On Rates…
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The RBA Faces Mixed Signals, But Will Likely Stand Firm On Rates…

The RBA meets Tuesday, with economists and markets predicting no change to rates. Indeed, not til later next year will rates likely come down, barring some external shock. Governor Michele Bullock said last month that inflation remains too high to consider a cut in the near term.

At the heart of the problem is the Governments spending a greater share of the economy, and stoking jobs in the public and related sector, like healthcare. States are also spending like drunken sailors, and the federal government is throwing more money at households via the electricity subsides. This is all inflationary.

On the other hand, the RBA did not take the cash rate as high as many other central banks did. As a result we have a shallower path, dodging a recession by the rate water torture will continue for longer. The upshot has been a cautious central bank that has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for the past year. By comparison, the Federal Reserve may cut for a third straight meeting this month.

So we will muddle through into 2025, and possibly face an election with rates at 4.35%. This could well become a cat fight with the RBA caught in the muddle, sorry middle.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Lets Put Another Numberwang On The Barbie!

The latest monthly CPI data from the ABS showed headline inflation going sideways and underlying inflation rising, despite the massive Government support to households across electricity and rents.

Nothing here to signal rate cuts in the short term, and the RBA will continue to look through to the underlying rate of 3.5% which is up from last month and higher than their target.

Of course, politically speaking we will hear loads about Government support, and bearing down on inflation, despite the fact that many of the actions of Government are driving inflation higher.

Its another classic case of numberwanging, because the real costs for people are so much higher.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Lets Put Another Numberwang On The Barbie!
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Lets Put Another Numberwang On The Barbie!

The latest monthly CPI data from the ABS showed headline inflation going sideways and underlying inflation rising, despite the massive Government support to households across electricity and rents.

Nothing here to signal rate cuts in the short term, and the RBA will continue to look through to the underlying rate of 3.5% which is up from last month and higher than their target.

Of course, politically speaking we will hear loads about Government support, and bearing down on inflation, despite the fact that many of the actions of Government are driving inflation higher.

Its another classic case of numberwanging, because the real costs for people are so much higher.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Australian Economy; Its Messy And Complicated!

Can the Australian economy be weak, and strong at the same time? Or which is it? This is an important question because the answer will determine the future policy direction of interest rates, and the well-being of ordinary Australians. So I am going to do a deep dive on this in the light of the latest employment and wage rise data from the ABS.

While The RBA has made inroads into getting inflation under control, at 3.5 per cent, underlying inflation still remains above the central bank’s 2 per cent to 3 per cent target band. And even though the jobs market has softened, it is still far stronger than almost any time since the 1970s as data out today shows.

Yet Consumers have cut back sharply as they try to cope with 13 interest rate rises by the RBA and this decline in spending has caused economic growth to grind to a halt. On an annual basis, the economy grew by just 1 per cent in the year to June, down from an average of 2.7 per cent over the past 20 years. Excluding the pandemic, that marks the slowest rate of growth since the 1990s recession. And household financial stress based on our analysis is at peak as we discussed in my live show this week.

So we have an economy driven into overdrive by high migration and big government spending, forcing interest rates to stay higher for longer, yet with a low unemployment rate and people working till they drop. None of this helps to improve productivity the share of the economic cake continues to shrink on an individual basis. And those in the rental sector or with a large mortgage are under the pump.

My point is, bad policy over a couple of decades have got us to this point, but unless we radically change direction, this Messy And Complicated journey will continue to the detriment of many ordinary Australians and businesses. There is no Goldilocks zone here.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Australian Economy; Its Messy And Complicated!
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The Australian Economy; Its Messy And Complicated!

Can the Australian economy be weak, and strong at the same time? Or which is it? This is an important question because the answer will determine the future policy direction of interest rates, and the well-being of ordinary Australians. So I am going to do a deep dive on this in the light of the latest employment and wage rise data from the ABS.

While The RBA has made inroads into getting inflation under control, at 3.5 per cent, underlying inflation still remains above the central bank’s 2 per cent to 3 per cent target band. And even though the jobs market has softened, it is still far stronger than almost any time since the 1970s as data out today shows.

Yet Consumers have cut back sharply as they try to cope with 13 interest rate rises by the RBA and this decline in spending has caused economic growth to grind to a halt. On an annual basis, the economy grew by just 1 per cent in the year to June, down from an average of 2.7 per cent over the past 20 years. Excluding the pandemic, that marks the slowest rate of growth since the 1990s recession. And household financial stress based on our analysis is at peak as we discussed in my live show this week.

So we have an economy driven into overdrive by high migration and big government spending, forcing interest rates to stay higher for longer, yet with a low unemployment rate and people working till they drop. None of this helps to improve productivity the share of the economic cake continues to shrink on an individual basis. And those in the rental sector or with a large mortgage are under the pump.

My point is, bad policy over a couple of decades have got us to this point, but unless we radically change direction, this Messy And Complicated journey will continue to the detriment of many ordinary Australians and businesses. There is no Goldilocks zone here.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Home Lending Booms: But What Have They Got To Hide?

The ABS released their monthly lending indicators for September today, and it showed a strong uptick in new mortgage loans, in contrast to poor household spending trends and confidence overall, though as we will see there are questions about this dataset too. Significantly, we also note the ABS is about to terminate its monthly reporting of new loans data, saying the monthly Lending Indicators publication will transition to a quarterly release.

My observation is different because the monitoring of new loans for housing is an essential barometer for the economy, without the monthly data it will be easier for lenders to continue their push to reduce lending standards (something evidently being supported by the opposition party) and so drive home prices even higher.

So credit for home lending, especially investors is booming. Worth recalling here the RBA’s recent warning that falling interest rates could trigger a property price boom that encourages households to take on too much debt.

As you know my surveys highlight some households are under extreme financial pressure, and I will be discussing this in my live show next Tuesday, so official data on household spending, is also an important indicator. So conveniently, the ABS also released household spending data for August today. However, I have issues with these figures too as this data excludes, Rent and other dwelling services, Electricity, gas and other fuels, Communication Services, Education Services and Insurance and other financial services. IN other words, the spending data is partial and incomplete, and excludes more than half of a typical mortgaged or renting household.

So all up, the spending indicators are not really meaningful, yet the ABS will be enhancing the Monthly Household Spending Indicator and ceasing the Retail Trade publication after the June 2025 reference period. On the other hand, the data on lending will be only released four times a year.

This is another example of data not fit for purpose, and I assume the financial pressure the ABS is under. But it does beg the question. What have they got to hide – and who is pulling their strings?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Home Lending Booms: But What Have They Got To Hide?
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Don’t Be Misled By Vendor Discounting!

Are property markets morphing into buyers markets and vendor dropping their asking prices? Well, according to recent news corp articles, home seekers are bagging properties for an average of up to 15% below the list price in pockets of Sydney.

Vendor discounting tends to reflect price growth recorded a few months ago, rather than signalling the direction of future price growth. But its complex, Especially now.

Because of the over quoting and under quoting issue, I think it is really very hard to get a read on the true vendor discounting. The averages quoted are often misleading, there is considerable variation, even within the same areas.

Bottom line, is more than ever it is important to understand the granular data in the area you are looking at, rather than the averages, which mask what is really going on. In fact in my live show next Tuesday we will do another deep dive into my data at the post code level, so mark you diaries for that. Meantime, take vendor discounting with a truck load of salt.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Don’t Be Misled By Vendor Discounting!
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