Trend employment growth strengthens in March

Trend employment increased by 16,500 to 12,033,400 persons in March 2017, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. Total employment growth over the year was 1.0 per cent, just over half the average growth rate of the past 20 years (1.8 per cent).

“We have seen strengthening in full-time growth over recent months, following falls in full-time employment recorded through much of 2016” said the Acting General Manager of ABS’ Macroeconomic Statistics Division, Jacqui Jones.

The trend monthly hours worked decreased by 0.4 million hours (0.02 per cent), with decreases in total hours worked by both full-time and part-time workers.

The trend unemployment rate in Australia increased by less than 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9 per cent in March 2017. The trend participation rate also increased slightly, to 64.7 per cent.

Trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 60,900 in March 2017. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9 per cent, and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 64.8 per cent.

Higher Investment Property Lending Flows In February Offset Wider Falls

The ABS finalised their finance data today with the overall flows for February 2017. It is not pretty. Overall lending flows, in trend terms, which irons out some of the statistical bumps, shows an overall fall of 1% to $62.2 billion in the month.

Looking in more detail, lending for investment property rose 0.7% to $13 billion, whilst other fixed lending to business fell 2.9% to $20 billion.  So overall productive business lending fell again. Not good for productive growth. Actually the bulk of investor lending was in Sydney and Melbourne, highlighting again the lopsided property market, and why investor lending needs real attention from regulators and Government.

As a result of this, the proportion of fixed business lending for investment housing rose again, to 39.7%, and the share of lending for housing investment rose to 19.4%, the highest it has been since 2015

The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.2% in trend terms, and the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.5%.

The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 0.3%. Fixed lending commitments fell 0.6%, while revolving credit commitments rose 0.2%.

The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 3.8%. Fixed lending commitments fell 4.7% and revolving credit commitments fell 2.2%.

The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 1.8%. Revolving credit commitments fell 3.2% and fixed lending commitments fell 1.5%.

The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 1.8%. Revolving credit commitments rose 25.5%, while fixed lending commitments fell 2.8%.

The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments rose 6.4% in February 2017 and the seasonally adjusted series fell 31.5%, after a rise of 73.6% in January 2017.

Finally, here are the movements within the housing sector, with falls in new construction and refinance, offsetting rises in investor lending and purchase of existing dwellings.

Building Activity Lower In Dec 2016 Quarter

According to the ABS, the trend estimate of the value of total building work done fell 0.5% in the December 2016 quarter.

The trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced also fell 1.5% in the December 2016 quarter following a fall of 1.5% in the September quarter.

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building work done was flat in the December quarter. The value of work done on new houses fell 0.7% while new other residential building rose 0.7%.

The trend estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 0.9% in the December quarter following a rise of 0.4% in the September quarter.

The trend estimate for new private sector other residential building commencements fell 1.7% in the December quarter following a fall of 3.2% in the September quarter.

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building work done fell 1.7% in the December quarter.

 

First results from the 2016 Census

From The Conversation.

In a country as diverse as Australia, it is impossible to identify a set of characteristics that defines us. However, with today’s release of data from the 2016 Census, it is possible to identify some of the common characteristics, how they vary across states and territories, and how they are changing over time.

Australia undertakes a compulsory long-form census – where detailed information across several areas is required of every individual respondent – every five years.

So, what did we learn from the first set of results? According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):

The 2016 Census has revealed the ‘typical’ Australian is a 38-year-old female who was born in Australia, and is of English ancestry. She is married and lives in a couple family with two children and has completed Year 12. She lives in a house with three bedrooms and two motor vehicles.

Australia is getting a bit older; the typical Australian in 2011 was aged 37.

How do today’s results vary across Australia?

First, age varies by state and territory.

With variables like age, we often find the “typical” value by taking the median. In essence, we (statistically) line everyone up from youngest to oldest, and find the person who is older than half the population but younger than the other half.

In Tasmania, the median age among 2016 Census respondents was 42. But in the Northern Territory, it was 34. Those in Australian Capital Territory were also quite young (median age 35), whereas those in South Australia were relatively old (40).

The NT population’s relatively young age is influenced by the very high proportion that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander.

While we don’t have updated estimates for that proportion (either for the NT or nationally), the data released today show that the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is quite young. The median age nationally is 23. New South Wales and Queensland have the youngest Indigenous population, with a median age of 22.

This release also tells us something about the different migrant profiles across Australia. Nationally, the most common country of birth for migrants is England. And the median age of migrants is much older than for the Australian-born population (44 compared to 38).

The most common country of birth for migrants living in Queensland was New Zealand; in Victoria it was India; in NSW it was China. There may not be too many more censuses until the most common migrant nationally was not born in England.

Ahead of the forthcoming federal budget, there has been a lot of media and policy attention on housing affordability. Today’s release of census data points to some subtle differences across Australia that may influence policy responses.

Nationally, the most common tenure type is owning a three-bedroom home with a mortgage. In Queensland, however, renters make up a roughly equal share of the population. But, in Tasmania and NSW, more people own their own home outright. And in the NT, renting is the most common tenure type.

In a finding that won’t surprise many, the typical female does a bit more unpaid work around the house than the typical male. The most common category for males is less than five hours a week. The most common for females is five to 14 hours.

We won’t know how this compares to paid work for a while yet – or whether these differences vary depending on age.

What future releases will tell us

The profiles released today offer us limited information. But the census remains one of Australia’s most important datasets.

When detailed data are released in June and then progressively throughout the rest of 2017, we will be able to dig deeper into small geographic areas or specific population groups.

We will be able to ask if there are pockets of Australia with significant socioeconomic disadvantage, and if it is worsening. We will be able to hold governments accountable for the progress we have made on the education, employment and health outcomes of the Indigenous population.

And we will be able to test whether the languages we speak, the houses we are living in, and the jobs that we are doing, are changing.

But those questions rely on a high-quality census.

The attention on the 2016 Census until now has been mostly negative. There was increased concern related to data privacy, the failure of the online data entry system on census night, and staff cuts at the ABS.

In October 2016, the ABS estimated the response rate to the 2016 Census was more than 96%, and that 58% of the household forms received were submitted online. But what matters more than how many people filled in the census and how they did it is whether the responses given were accurate. We therefore need to see a lot more interrogation of the data before taking the results at face value, but we can remain cautiously optimistic.

The ABS will be hoping that now some data is released, attention will shift to what the results tell us about Australian society. It is to be hoped the data will be robust, the insights will be newsworthy, and policy and practice will shift accordingly.

We won’t know this for sure until the first major data release of data June 27 – the data released today were just a sneak peak.

Author: Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University

Housing Finance Still Growing

The latest data from the ABS on Housing Finance to February 2017 shows that overall finance continued to grow.

The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.4%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.7% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.2%. [DFA NOTE: They include owner occupied refinance in these numbers]

In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 2.7%.

But within the moving parts there are interesting observations – as usual we will focus on the trend series, which irons out some of the statistical bumps, though others will rush to comment on the 13% fall in investor loan flows from the previous month.

But looking first at ADI loan stock, overall balances rose 0.44% in the month to $1.57 trillion. Investor loans comprise 35% of the total, just down a little, in original terms.

Turning to the trend lending flows, total flows grew by 0.38% compared with the previous month, up $128 million. Within that, refinance fell to 18.7% of flows, down 0.83% or $50 million, owner occupied loans rose 0.65%, up $89 million and investment loans rose 0.69% or $91 million.

The main rise in the owner occupied sector was the purchase of established dwellings, whilst funding for new purchases and construction both fell a little. All categories of investor lending rose.

The HIA highlights that

the number of loans to owner occupiers constructing or purchasing new homes during February 2017 rose in just two states – South Australia (+6.5 per cent) and Queensland (+3.7 per cent). Compared with a year earlier, the largest reduction in lending volumes affected the Northern Territory (-63.8 per cent), followed by the ACT (-23.4 per cent) and New South Wales (-9.7 per cent). There were also falls in Western Australia (-8.7 per cent), Victoria (-2.0 per cent) and Tasmania (-1.7 per cent).

Looking next a first time buyers, the number of transactions rose in the month, in original terms up 7.5% to 6,596, or 13.3% of all transactions, still below previous peaks and lower than last month.

Our surveys also identified another 4,600 first time buyers going direct to the investment sector, so overall volumes are higher than the official figures suggest.

Looking at the movements, month on month, the number of FTB rose, with an increase of 460 over the previous month. Fixed rate lending compared with all transactions was down.

Building Approvals Higher In February

The ABS data released today shows that the trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.8% in February after falling for eight months. The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in February and has fallen for 12 months.  The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 2.4% in February and has risen for two months.

The trend estimate of the value of total building approved fell 0.1% in February and has fallen for seven months. The value of residential building rose 1.5% and has risen for two months. The value of non-residential building fell 3.3% and has fallen for six months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 8.3% in February and has risen for two months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses rose 5.3% in February after falling for two months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 10.9% in February and has risen for two months.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 19.9% in February following a fall of 3.0% in the previous month. The value of residential building rose 13.9% and has risen for four months. The value of non-residential building rose 34.5% following a fall of 16.9% in the previous month.

The HIA pointed out that during the month of February 2017, total seasonally-adjusted new home building approvals only increased in two states: Queensland (+33.7 per cent) and New South Wales (+19.6 per cent). The largest reduction occurred in Tasmania (-14.7 per cent), followed by Victoria (-8.8 per cent). Approvals also fell back in South Australia (-2.5 per cent) and Western Australia (-5.5 per cent).

In trend terms, approvals contracted by 13.0 per cent in the Northern Territory with a decline of 15.7 per cent occurring in the Australian Capital Territory.

Retail Turnover Fell In February

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in February 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in January 2017.

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in February 2017 following a 0.2 per cent rise in January 2017. Compared to February 2016, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-2.5 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.4 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in food retailing (0.3 per cent) and department stores (0.8 per cent). Other retailing, and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services were relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent).

The fall in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing was across both industry subgroups. Clothing retailing fell 2.9 per cent and footwear and other personal accessory retailing fell 1.9 per cent, in seasonally adjusted terms.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Western Australia (-0.7 per cent), Victoria (-0.3 per cent), Queensland (-0.2 per cent), Tasmania (-0.5 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.5 per cent). There were rises in New South Wales (0.4 per cent), the Northern Territory (0.4 per cent), and South Australia (0.1 per cent).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Sydney Population Now Over 5m

Sydney’s population has officially reached 5 million, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).  This is one key reason why demand for property is so strong here.

ABS Director of Demography, Beidar Cho, said that at 30 June 2016, 5,005,400 people lived in the NSW capital – up 82,800 from the previous year.

“It took Sydney almost 30 years, from 1971 to 2000, to grow from 3 million to 4 million people, but only half that time to reach its next million,” she said.

Today’s figures show that Melbourne is Australia’s fastest growing capital city. Its population grew by 2.4 per cent in 2015-16, ahead of Brisbane (1.8 per cent) and Sydney (1.7 per cent). Australia’s slowest growing capital city was Adelaide, at below 1 per cent.

The fastest growing area in Australia in 2015-16 was ACT – South West, which grew by 38 per cent. This area includes the recently developed suburbs of Wright and Coombs. Other areas experiencing fast growth included Pimpama (35 per cent) on the Gold Coast, the coastal area of Yanchep (29 per cent) in Perth’s north and Cobbitty – Leppington (28 per cent) in Sydney’s outer south-west.

  • Australia’s estimated resident population (ERP) reached 24.1 million at 30 June 2016, increasing by 337,800 people or 1.4% since 30 June 2015. This growth rate was unchanged from 2014-15.
  • All states and territories experienced population growth between 2015 and 2016. Victoria had the greatest growth (123,100 people), followed by New South Wales (105,600) and Queensland (64,700).
  • Victoria also grew fastest, increasing by 2.1%, followed by New South Wales and Queensland (both 1.4%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.3%) and Western Australia (1.0%). The Northern Territory had the slowest growth (0.2%), followed by South Australia and Tasmania (both 0.5%).
  • The combined population of Greater Capital Cities increased by 276,500 people (1.7%) between 30 June 2015 and 30 June 2016, accounting for 82% of the country’s total population growth.
  • Melbourne had the largest growth of all Greater Capital Cities (107,800), followed by Sydney (82,800), Brisbane (41,100) and Perth (27,400).
  • Melbourne also had the fastest growth (2.4%), ahead of Brisbane (1.8%) and Sydney (1.7%).
  • Sydney’s population reached 5 million in 2015-16. While it took almost 30 years (1971 to 2000) for Sydney’s population to increase from 3 million to 4 million people, it took only another 16 years to reach its next million.

Australia is adding an extra million people every three years

From The New Daily.

Thursday was a demographer’s dream. That’s when the Australian Bureau of Statistics released Catalogue No. 3101.0, which contains a whole bunch of thrilling data.

One of the highlights is that, as of September last year, Australia had 24.22 million people, an increase of about 348,000 in just 12 months. That’s broadly equivalent to adding the combined population of Hobart and Darwin.

This growth rate is relatively high by western standards. We’re still a popular destination for migrants with net overseas migration (the difference between arrivals and departures) contributing 55 per cent of total growth. The rest is provided by natural increase (the difference between births and deaths).

But it’s not unprecedented. We’re expanding at 1.5 per cent a year, which is below that of 2007-2009 and 1950-1970 when growth exceeded 2 per cent.

At a state level, Victoria was the big winner adding some 125,500 new residents, followed by New South Wales (110,000) and Queensland (68,000). Over the 12-month period, Victoria broke through the six million mark. For comparison, if Victoria was a US state it would rank 18th just behind Indiana.

The impact of net overseas migration is not evenly distributed. New South Wales, which houses 32 per cent of Australia’s population, attracts almost 40 per cent of net overseas migration, while Victoria with around 25 per cent of the nation’s population, punches well above its weight with 36 per cent. The vast majority settle in either Sydney or Melbourne.

Another interesting element is movement between the states. Each year, people move, for a host of reasons, interstate. The difference between those arriving and those leaving is termed ‘net instate migration’ and over the years state premiers have frequently attached their economic management credentials to positive figures.

At present, Victoria and Queensland are the ‘winners’, Tasmania and the two territories can claim a draw, while New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia are the ‘losers’.

Some of these trends are fairly well established, others relatively new. For example, at the height of the mining boom, Western Australia was a net importer of people from the other states. With the boom a distant memory, it’s now a net exporter.

Lest Victoria get too cocky, it should be remembered that in the 1980s and early ’90s, when many thought the state was in almost terminal decline as a so-called ‘rust belt’ state, net outflows (mainly to NSW and Qld) were in the tens of thousands a year.

Australia is also ageing, which will have longer-term ramifications. Life expectancy is greater and our fertility rate is below replacement.

We’re not as bad as Europe, where in some countries population decline is imminent. But it’s still a very real issue that has governments mindful of the fiscal implications of a society where more of us are older than 65.

Even in the few years from 2012 to 2016, the proportion of the Australian population aged 65 and over increased from 14.14 to 15.27 per cent, while the proportion aged 24 and under declined from 32.48 to 31.92 per cent.

Finally, the ABS gave us some predictions of future population and the number of households required to accommodate it.

By 2036, we’re projected to increase to 32.4 million and, by 2056, to 39.8 million.

Most of that growth is expected to be in the big cities, with Sydney increasing from almost five million in 2016 to 6.6 million in 2036 and to 8.12 million in 2056, and Melbourne growing from 4.6 million in 2016 to 6.4 million in 2036 and to 8.16 million in 2056.

Notice something?

Yep, by 2056 Melbourne is projected to have overtaken Sydney.

Will it happen?

It could, but it’s not guaranteed. Melbourne has been gaining on Sydney for many years now, but a range of economic, social and cultural factors could threaten that. Back in 1991 few people would have foreseen Melbourne becoming Australia’s growth capital.

In any event, Sydney has large centres of population on its doorstep (the Central Coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and even the Hunter Valley region) that could potentially be called into play if Melbourne began to mount a serious challenge.

Chris McNeill is a demographer and urban economist with Essential Economics, a consulting firm specialising in the economic analysis of people, places and spaces.

Population Growth Fuels Property Demand

Australia is experiencing its fastest growth in Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in four years, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

These new arrivals need somewhere to live, another factor in the elevated demand for property!

ABS Demography Director Beidar Cho said that in the year ending 30 September 2016, NOM increased by almost 9 per cent, adding 193,200 people to the Australian population.

“This is in contrast to the declines of NOM of over 10 per cent experienced during 2014 and early 2015,” said Ms Cho. “But the current growth of NOM is well short of the record during 2009, when over 300,000 people were added to the population.”

Compared with last year, Queensland had the fastest growing NOM, increasing by 19 per cent. New South Wales and Victoria remain popular destinations for migrants, growing by 11 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. Tasmania was the only other state or territory to see an increase of NOM compared to last year, increasing by 9 per cent.

Overall, Australia’s population grew by 348,700 people to reach 24.2 million by the end of September 2016.

Net overseas migration added 193,200 people to the population, and accounted for 55 per cent of Australia’s total population growth.

Natural increase contributed 155,500 additional people to Australia’s population, made up of 315,000 births and 159,500 deaths.

Over the year, net overseas migration was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, whilst natural increase was the major contributor in all other states and territories.