ABS – Page 8 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

“Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!”

Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.

First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).

Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.

Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.

But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.

Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

"Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!"

00:00 / 00:10:47

“Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!”

First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).

Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

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Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]

The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one.

Now Payroll jobs data says the same.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with Single Touch Payroll (STP) enabled payroll and accounting software each time the employer runs its payroll. The ATO provides selected employer and job level data items from the STP system to the ABS to produce statistics.

And according to the ABS Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month.

I should say Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted and are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction, have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting.

So we should note that in each release, as more complete data are received, payroll job estimates are revised. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the end of the financial year and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.

That said, the ABS says “The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:06:14

The Costs Of Living Are Going Through The Roof! [Podcast]

The latest from the ABS on Living Costs highlights that for most households, real costs of living are rising faster than those represented in the CPI.

In fact, when rising mortgage costs are included (up 91.6%) some households are exposed to cost pressures much higher than represented in the CPI – and these are averages of course.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/selected-living-cost-indexes-australia/jun-2023

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Costs Of Living Are Going Through The Roof! [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:06:52

The Costs Of Living Are Going Through The Roof!

The latest from the ABS on Living Costs highlights that for most households, real costs of living are rising faster than those represented in the CPI.

In fact, when rising mortgage costs are included (up 91.6%) some households are exposed to cost pressures much higher than represented in the CPI – and these are averages of course.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/selected-living-cost-indexes-australia/jun-2023

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Is The Consumer Going On Strike?

Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell in June, suggesting consumers are hunkering down in response to the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest-rate increases in 15 months.

Sales declined 0.8% from a month earlier, compared with estimates for a flat reading, and erased all of their gains in May, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Friday. The weakness was driven by department stores and clothing and footwear, the bureau said.

Trend estimates from July 2022 onwards show that underlying growth in retail spending slowed considerably towards the end of 2022, with only modest trend growth in recent months.

The result bolsters the case for the RBA to stand pat on Tuesday for a second-straight meeting after inflation data two days ago showed a cooling of prices. Money markets trimmed bets for a final rate hike this year and the policy-sensitive three-year government bond yield pared gains.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Some More CPI Numberwanging Says Rates May Have Peaked (For Now)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8 per cent in the June 2023 quarter and 6.0 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

CPI inflation slowed in the June quarter, with the quarterly rise being the lowest since September 2021. While prices continued to rise for most goods and services, there were some offsetting price falls this quarter including for domestic holiday travel and accommodation and automotive fuel.

This means Australia’s inflation rate eased more than expected in the three months through June, reflecting global trends and bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank to pause again at next week’s policy meeting.

The result was the second consecutive decline in the pace and the RBA currently expects inflation will return to the top of its 2-3% target by mid-2025.

The easing in prices will be welcomed by Governor Philip Lowe, who has put the central bank in data-dependent mode after raising interest rates 12 times over the past 15 months. Expectations that the result will allow the RBA to stand pat on Tuesday saw the Australian dollar extend losses and the yield on policy-sensitive three-year bonds fall, while stocks rose.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Some More CPI Numberwanging Says Rates May Have Peaked (For Now) [Podcast]