Given we now have mortgage rates 3% higher than at the start of the year – analysts are asking whether there are yet signs of mortgage portfolio risks in the banking system.
We certainly know that households cash flows are under pressure, from our own mortgage stress analysis, and Roy Morgan’s research on consumer confidence and their own mortgage stress analysis.
And we know that APRA’s 3% “Buffer” is being breached now, and it is even worse when they had set a 2% buffer earlier on.
But all that said, there is a lag between rate rises and delinquency – of months, if not years, so I would not be expecting much movement yet – that comes later. This also aligns with recent incoming data too.
For example, according to the latest Quarterly Statistics from APRA, the banks wrote fewer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages and decreased high debt-to-income lending over the September quarter, which the prudential regulator has welcomed.
They welcomed the fact that the banks have been “improving” the risk characteristics of their new residential mortgage lending, after finding that both high debt-to-income (DTI) and high LVR lending had reduced over the September quarter and suggested that the figures were largely promising given the strength of the banks’ profitability and liquidity positions as well as the reduction in “riskier” lending.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Are There Signs Of Bank Mortgage Portfolio Stress Yet?
A bunch of stats from the ABS , RBA and APRA. CPI was down a bit but largely due to rebaselining. The Trimmed Mean was unchanged.
Building approvals were down (again) and the latest data on lending shows an easing.
Net net, not enough to shift the RBA very far – 25 basis points next Tuesday is still most likely.
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And we discuss an alternative to the Major Banks who are closing outlets to secure profits for shareholders – the Customer Owned Banks. There are nearly 60 across the country focused on their members (customers) offering lower risk, more competitive banking services, including local branches.
You can find a list of local members here: https://www.customerownedbanking.asn.au/about-coba/list-of-our-members
So, I recommend switching to these community banks, away from the Majors. Funnily enough often the COBA banks offer better rates, and service than the others, and have the highest customer satisfaction!
Finally, digital is fine until the power goes out, and cash is still needed to maintain viable and dynamic local communities!
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Superannuation system is not fit for purpose, as many are finding out as balances decline, while fees do not but forced contributions increase. So today we look at data provided by APRA on fund performance (down more than 4% in the quarter to June 2022, and further now). And we feature an important contribution from Senator Gerard Rennick who addressed The Senate last week on this important issue.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
AUSTRALIA’S banking regulator APRA is picking and choosing which banks it is allowing to get away with breaking the law by misreporting whether their sites offer cash service provided by a teller according to an important article in The Regional. Kudos once again to Dale Webster for highlighting this important issue.
Errors in hundreds of minor and foreign bank sites included in the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s points of presence data for years, even decades, have been corrected over the past 17 months after being exposed by The Regional in May 2021.
AUSTRALIA’S banking regulator APRA is picking and choosing which banks it is allowing to get away with breaking the law by misreporting whether their sites offer cash service provided by a teller according to an important article in The Regional. Kudos once again to Dale Webster for highlighting this important issue.
Errors in hundreds of minor and foreign bank sites included in the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s points of presence data for years, even decades, have been corrected over the past 17 months after being exposed by The Regional in May 2021.
This is a compilation of the evidence APRA gave to the House Standing Committee On Economics on Tuesday. We pulled out the discussions relating to mortgages as rates rise.
They claim there is nothing to see yet, but it is worth listening to the gaps in their knowledge – which prompts me to ask – how would they know?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Financial Sector veteran Roger Brown to discuss the rise and fall of Australian property, and the agencies responsible for the mess we are in.
Roger sheets much of the blame on APRA, plus poor policy from the RBA and Treasury.
The net effect is the disenfranchisement of younger households, and the creation of spurious “wealth”.
The truth is, many are going to find the next few years very tough, and there are risks to financial stability.
Roger is on Twitter as @bankcustomers
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
What A Fine Pickle We Are In: With Roger Brown [Podcast]
