OZ GDP: Didn’t We Do Well (No Not Really)!

Superficially, Australia’s economy maintained its momentum in the three months through June, with the expansion underpinned by exports and sectors less impacted by the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest-rate increases.

That said, key themes from the accounts are: ongoing weakness in consumer spending; slowing growth in employee compensation; rapid deterioration in productivity; offset by boosts from business investment and services exports, but which is a fudge.

The ABS reported that Gross domestic product advanced 0.4%, the same pace as the prior quarter and in line with economists’ estimates. From a year earlier, the economy grew 2.1% from an upwardly revised 2.4%.

However, while the economy grew by 0.4% in aggregate terms, it shrank by 0.3% for the second consecutive quarter in per capita terms, a more realistic measure, than gross GDP which is inflated by high migration and hence population growth. Per capita GDP also declined by 0.3% over the 2022-23 financial year.

It is clear that the main driver of Australia’s GDP growth is the Albanese Government’s unprecedented immigration program, which delivered a record net 502,000 visa holders (excluding tourists) into Australia in the year to July, with student visas accounting for 297,000 of these arrivals.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
OZ GDP: Didn’t We Do Well (No Not Really)!
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Catching A Falling Knife?

A quick look at the damage done on the Australian share market today. A global tech rout wreaked havoc on Australian shares on Thursday, triggering the worst sell-off on the local share-market in 16 months, amid fears the US Federal Reserve could begin to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index tumbled 207.6 points, or 2.7 per cent, to 7358.3, declining for a second straight session, and wiping more than two weeks of gains, with only eight shares ending the day in positive territory.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

From A Macroeconomic View Point

I caught up with an independent top-down investor to discuss the Australian economy, the housing sector and bank funding.

They have been on the sidelines until recently, but now believe we are on the slide, so have taken positions.

We discuss their rationale, and highlight the cracks appearing in the economic narrative. Warning this is a long, and quite technical discussion, but it paints an important picture

Note: this was recorded in late Nov 2018, but I held back the release of the show until after the holidays because I regard this as a really important discussion.