Tag: Bank of England

UK Inflation Falls Below Target (For Now)…

The UK CPI read for September 2024 as reported by the Office of National Statistics came in at 1.7%, which was below the Bank of England’s 2% target, and lower than analysts had been expecting. The BOE had estimated at 2.1% back in August. On a monthly basis, CPI was little changed in September 2024, down from a rise of 0.5% in September 2023.

The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in the CPI annual rates came from transport, with larger negative contributions from air fares and motor fuels; the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Services inflation in particular fell significantly thanks to air fares and hotel accommodation being cheaper, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.2% read which was expected.

This all but locked a further rate cut from the Bank of England when the Monetary Policy Committee next meets. The September read is also used to set the uplift in benefits next spring.

The UK Pound slipped against the USD, while yields on both the 2-year and 10-year gilts moved lower.

Overall inflation may be down, for now, but the pace of food price increases rose for the first time since early last year while the costs associated with living in your own home grew at the fastest since 1992. For homeowners and those looking to get a mortgage, therefore, the prospects of lower interest rates will certainly be welcome. But the Bank of England will continue in cautious mode, as they expect inflation to pick up again in the months to come.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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UK Inflation Falls Below Target (For Now)...
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UK Inflation Falls Below Target (For Now)…

The UK CPI read for September 2024 as reported by the Office of National Statistics came in at 1.7%, which was below the Bank of England’s 2% target, and lower than analysts had been expecting. The BOE had estimated at 2.1% back in August. On a monthly basis, CPI was little changed in September 2024, down from a rise of 0.5% in September 2023.

The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in the CPI annual rates came from transport, with larger negative contributions from air fares and motor fuels; the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Services inflation in particular fell significantly thanks to air fares and hotel accommodation being cheaper, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.2% read which was expected.

This all but locked a further rate cut from the Bank of England when the Monetary Policy Committee next meets. The September read is also used to set the uplift in benefits next spring.

The UK Pound slipped against the USD, while yields on both the 2-year and 10-year gilts moved lower.

Overall inflation may be down, for now, but the pace of food price increases rose for the first time since early last year while the costs associated with living in your own home grew at the fastest since 1992. For homeowners and those looking to get a mortgage, therefore, the prospects of lower interest rates will certainly be welcome. But the Bank of England will continue in cautious mode, as they expect inflation to pick up again in the months to come.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Finally A Rate Cut, Though Weirdly Into A Growing Economy!

As expected, the Bank of England finally cut the base rate by 0.25%, to 5%, the first cut in four and a half years though it was a finely balanced decision which reflected increased confidence that the worst inflation shock in decades, was easing. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said inflationary pressures had “eased enough” to enable the first cut since the Bank stopped ramping up borrowing costs this time last year.

The MPC was split by five votes to four, exposing divisions within the central bank’s most senior ranks, with Bailey casting the deciding vote for a quarter-point reduction.

Households which saw borrowing costs rise to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis can look to lower mortgage rates, though the bulk remain on high fixed rates for now. But Bailey said savers and borrowers should not expect large reductions over the coming months, amid concerns about lingering risks to the economy. “We need to make sure inflation stays low, and be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” he said. “Ensuring low and stable inflation is the best thing we can do to support economic growth and the prosperity of the country.”

Remember that Prices remain significantly higher than three years ago and are still rising despite Inflation falling back to the 2% government target in May. The Bank remains concerned over stubborn price increases in the service sector of the economy and resilience in wage growth.

So, while the Bank of England did cut, the UK economy is not out of the woods yet, and we should expect a tick up in inflation ahead, so the next few months data will still be important. And taxes of course, will continue to grind higher.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Finally A Rate Cut, Though Weirdly Into A Growing Economy!
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Finally A Rate Cut, Though Weirdly Into A Growing Economy!

As expected, the Bank of England finally cut the base rate by 0.25%, to 5%, the first cut in four and a half years though it was a finely balanced decision which reflected increased confidence that the worst inflation shock in decades, was easing. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said inflationary pressures had “eased enough” to enable the first cut since the Bank stopped ramping up borrowing costs this time last year.

The MPC was split by five votes to four, exposing divisions within the central bank’s most senior ranks, with Bailey casting the deciding vote for a quarter-point reduction.

Households which saw borrowing costs rise to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis can look to lower mortgage rates, though the bulk remain on high fixed rates for now. But Bailey said savers and borrowers should not expect large reductions over the coming months, amid concerns about lingering risks to the economy. “We need to make sure inflation stays low, and be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” he said. “Ensuring low and stable inflation is the best thing we can do to support economic growth and the prosperity of the country.”

Remember that Prices remain significantly higher than three years ago and are still rising despite Inflation falling back to the 2% government target in May. The Bank remains concerned over stubborn price increases in the service sector of the economy and resilience in wage growth.

So, while the Bank of England did cut, the UK economy is not out of the woods yet, and we should expect a tick up in inflation ahead, so the next few months data will still be important. And taxes of course, will continue to grind higher.

Another Dose Of Sticky Inflation Lands…

Today we got the April inflation read for the UK, (and a election announcement) which was expected to be lower than the previous month thanks to a substantial cut in the costs of energy to households. But in the end, UK inflation slowed by less than economists had predicted thanks to services inflation proving sticky, which prompted traders to pare their bets on when the Bank of England will cut rates. The first reduction isn’t now fully priced in until November, three months later than the prevailing expectation over the past few weeks and all but eliminating the chance of a cut in June that was in play yesterday.

Services inflation — which the BOE is watching carefully for signs of domestic pressures — remained little changed at 5.9% after a 6% reading the month before. It was a much smaller fall than the cooling to 5.5% expected by UK central bank, with strong wage growth keeping services inflation stubbornly high.

The easing in the annual inflation rates in April 2024 principally reflected price changes in the housing and household services – particularly for gas and electricity where a 12% drop in the UK’s energy price cap, a mechanism designed to protect consumers from sharp moves in natural gas and electricity costs came through.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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Another Dose Of Sticky Inflation Lands...
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Markets Rethink Rate Cuts As Central Bank Hawks Jawbone!

It’s become a bit of a ritual, as members of various committees linked to Central Bank interest rate decisions speak in the open spaces between policy meetings. This week, Washington has been the centre of gravity thanks to the IMF conferences.

Markets are hypersensitive at the moment, having been baying for rate cuts all year, and positioning accordingly, despite the data is pointing elsewhere. But now, Money managers and strategists on Wall Street have been forced to rethink their assumptions over the past two weeks in response to strong economic data and remarks by Fed officials.

For example, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that there’s no rush to lower interest rates and economic data will determine the timing.

And Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaking at an Atlantic Council event on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s meeting in Washington, said the UK faces difficult trade-offs over whether to cut interest rates because underlying inflation remains high and growth is weak.

But Greene said rate cuts were not imminent and the combination of high inflation and weak growth means “we are sort of in trade-off territory.”

In Australia, after the latest jobs data rate cut expectations are also being pushed out. Andrew Lilley the chief Rate Strategist at Barren joey said “There’s no impetus for the RBA to cut rates as inflation is outside of the 2 per cent to 3 percent band. The RBA will be very comfortable to sit on hold.

But even if rates go no higher, the RBA says total scheduled household mortgage payments (comprising both interest and scheduled principal payments) have increased to around 10 per cent of household disposable income as of December 2023, exceeding the estimated previous historical peak in 2008. These scheduled mortgage payments are expected to increase further to reach around 10½ per cent of household disposable income by end-2024 as more fixed-rate loans expire and reprice at higher interest rates.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Rethink Rate Cuts As Central Bank Hawks Jawbone!
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Markets Rethink Rate Cuts As Central Bank Hawks Jawbone!

It’s become a bit of a ritual, as members of various committees linked to Central Bank interest rate decisions speak in the open spaces between policy meetings. This week, Washington has been the centre of gravity thanks to the IMF conferences.

Markets are hypersensitive at the moment, having been baying for rate cuts all year, and positioning accordingly, despite the data is pointing elsewhere. But now, Money managers and strategists on Wall Street have been forced to rethink their assumptions over the past two weeks in response to strong economic data and remarks by Fed officials.

For example, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that there’s no rush to lower interest rates and economic data will determine the timing.

And Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaking at an Atlantic Council event on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s meeting in Washington, said the UK faces difficult trade-offs over whether to cut interest rates because underlying inflation remains high and growth is weak.

But Greene said rate cuts were not imminent and the combination of high inflation and weak growth means “we are sort of in trade-off territory.”

In Australia, after the latest jobs data rate cut expectations are also being pushed out. Andrew Lilley the chief Rate Strategist at Barren joey said “There’s no impetus for the RBA to cut rates as inflation is outside of the 2 per cent to 3 percent band. The RBA will be very comfortable to sit on hold.

But even if rates go no higher, the RBA says total scheduled household mortgage payments (comprising both interest and scheduled principal payments) have increased to around 10 per cent of household disposable income as of December 2023, exceeding the estimated previous historical peak in 2008. These scheduled mortgage payments are expected to increase further to reach around 10½ per cent of household disposable income by end-2024 as more fixed-rate loans expire and reprice at higher interest rates.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

UK Inflation Eases, But Thanks Mainly To Base Effects!

UK inflation tumbled to the lowest level in two years, prompting investors to firm up bets that the Bank of England will be able to cut rates as early as the Spring of next year.

Consumer prices rose 4.6% from a year earlier in October, down sharply from 6.7% in September and the slowest pace since 2021, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The figures allowed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to declare victory in his goal of cutting inflation in half in 2023.

“While it is welcome news that prices are no longer rising as quickly, we know many people are continuing to struggle,” Sunak said in a statement. “We must stay the course to continue to get inflation all the way back down to 2%.”

The drop was even sharper than the 4.7% reading economists had anticipated. It will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England is finished raising interest rates and refocus attention on a sharp slowdown in the economy.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
UK Inflation Eases, But Thanks Mainly To Base Effects!
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UK Inflation Eases, But Thanks Mainly To Base Effects!

UK inflation tumbled to the lowest level in two years, prompting investors to firm up bets that the Bank of England will be able to cut rates as early as the Spring of next year.

Consumer prices rose 4.6% from a year earlier in October, down sharply from 6.7% in September and the slowest pace since 2021, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The figures allowed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to declare victory in his goal of cutting inflation in half in 2023.

“While it is welcome news that prices are no longer rising as quickly, we know many people are continuing to struggle,” Sunak said in a statement. “We must stay the course to continue to get inflation all the way back down to 2%.”

The drop was even sharper than the 4.7% reading economists had anticipated. It will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England is finished raising interest rates and refocus attention on a sharp slowdown in the economy.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Is The Bank Of England Broke – And Does It Matter?

The Bank of England, like other Central Banks, is a weird entity, in that it can, if it wants create money. We saw that through the QE programmes, through which it acquired large portfolios of Government Bonds – known as guilts.

The program ran from 2009 to 2022 and was designed to improve financing conditions for companies hit by the 2008 financial crisis. It saw the BOE accrue £895 billion worth of bond holdings while interest rates were historically low.

However, the pace at which the central bank has had to tighten monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation means the costs have risen more sharply than anticipated. Higher rates have driven down the value of the purchased government bonds — known as gilts — just as the BOE began selling them at a loss because bond yields have changed significantly, rising fast as prices fall (as yields and prices work in opposite directions).

The central bank began unwinding that position late last year, initially through halting reinvestments of maturing assets and then by actively selling the bonds at a projected pace of £80 billion per year from October 2022.
Both the Treasury and the BOE knew when the APF was implemented that its early profits (£123.8 billion as of September last year) would become losses as interest rates rose.

Now according to Deutsche Bank, the Bank of England’s losses on bonds bought to shore up the U.K. economy after the financial crisis will be “materially higher than projected until the middle of the decade,”

So should we worry? Well, the Bank of England has a pretty special arrangement with the UK government. Since 2009 it has promised the central bank that it would make good any losses it might suffer from QE, especially after it started sweeping any QE profits back to the Treasury in 2012.