Tag: Building Activity

Residential Construction Rotates

The latest data from the ABS shows building construction activity to June 2017. We see a small rotation towards non-residential work, supported by investment from the public sector. The trend estimates, which irons out the bumps in the series, shows a rise in total building work done, with a fall in residential building of 1.2% and a rise in non-residential building of 2.8%.

Within the residential data, new houses fell 1.3% and other new residential building fell 1.0%.

The trend estimate of the value of total building work done rose 0.3% in the June 2017 quarter.

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building work done fell 1.2% in the June quarter. The value of work done on new houses fell 1.3% while new other residential building fell 1.0%.

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building work done rose 2.8% in the June quarter.

The trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 3.0% in the June 2017 quarter following a fall of 2.8% in the March quarter.

The trend estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 1.6% in the June quarter following a fall of 2.7% in the March quarter.

The trend estimate for new private sector other residential building commencements fell 4.6% in the June quarter following a fall of 3.0% in the March quarter.

Building Activity Tanks

The latest data from the ABS showing building activity to March 2017 shows a fall in residential activity, if from a high reading.

The trend estimate of the value of total building work done fell 1.0% in the March 2017 quarter whilst the seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building work done fell 2.4% to $26,410.4m in the March quarter, following a rise of 2.2% in the December 2016 quarter.

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building work done fell 1.5% in the March quarter. The value of work done on new houses fell 1.2% while new other residential building fell 1.9%. However, the seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of new residential building work done fell 4.4% to $15,290.7m. Work done on new houses fell 2.5% to $8,198.9m, while new other residential building fell 6.5% to $7,091.8m.

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building work done was flat in the March quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of non-residential building work done in the quarter rose 1.7%, following a rise of 3.1% in the December 2016 quarter.

Building Activity Slows

The ABS released the Building Activity data to December 2014. Overall, the trend estimate of the value of total building work done fell 0.2% in the December 2014 quarter.  This is despite the estimate of the value of new residential building work done rising 1.0% in the December quarter and the value of work done on new houses rose 0.3% while new other residential building rose 1.9%. Construction for units therefore helped prop up the numbers. This is because the trend estimate of the value of non-residential building work done fell 1.4% in the December quarter.

Looking at the quarter on quarter trend estimate changes, we see a drift downward since mid last year. Momentum in NSW based on value of work done fell furthest. Residential construction cannot replace the decline in other sectors.

BuildingWorkDoneDec2014

New Home Sales Continue Upward March – HIA

The latest result for the HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, highlights a second consecutive rise for sales in the month of November 2014. Renewed upward momentum in the multi-unit segment drove growth in overall new home sales in late 2014. In fact sales of multi-units surged in both October and November to reach their highest level since September 2003.

HIAJan2015

Whilst detached house sales increased by 4.0 per cent in Victoria, 16.0 per cent in Queensland, and 0.3 per cent in South Australia, detached house sales fell in November in New South Wales (-5.6 per cent) and Western Australia (-10.6 per cent, following a +24.8 per cent result in October).

HIA says the key leading indicator measures of building approvals and new home sales suggest this re-concentration of growth in the ‘multi-unit’ segment will persist into 2015. They call for a focus on housing policy reform to a further burst of growth in detached house construction which would at the same time provide productivity gains for the broader Australian economy.

New Residential Building Momentum Continues

The ABS published their Building Activity quarterly data today to June 2014. The trend estimate of the value of total building work done rose 1.8% in the June 2014 quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building work done rose 0.4% to $22,054.3m in the June quarter, following a rise of 4.5% in the March 2014 quarter. New residential building was worth $11,609.1m, up 11.2% from a year ago.

ValueResidentialBuildingJun2014VIC has the largest value of work done in the residential sector. By comparison, QLD has been significantly squeezed since 2011.

ValueResidentialBuildingStatePCJun2014The ABS also showed that the trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced rose 2.0% in the June 2014 quarter following a rise of 3.6% in the March quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 6.9% to 45,527 dwellings in the June quarter following a rise of 8.9% in the March quarter.

The trend estimate for new private sector house commencements rose 4.4% in the June quarter following a rise of 4.8% in the March quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 1.5% to 27,015 dwellings in the June quarter following a rise of 13.9% in the March quarter.

The trend estimate for new private sector other residential building commencements fell 1.3% in the June quarter following a rise of 2.2% in the March quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector other residential building fell 15.1% to 17,241 dwellings in the June quarter following a rise of 3.3% in the March quarter.

Building Approvals Fall In June – ABS

The ABS published their data today on Building Approvals to June 2014. The number of dwellings approved fell 1.1 per cent in June 2014, in trend terms, and has fallen for six months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 5.0% in June following a rise of 10.3% in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 2.2% in June following a rise of 1.4% in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 10.5% in June following a rise of 26.7% in the previous month. Clearly the data is volatile month by month, so the trend series tells is more about what is happening. Overall, in seasonally adjusted terms, numbers are down, compared with the peak in January 2014.

NumberOfBuildingApprovalsJune2014
Dwelling approvals decreased in trend terms in the Australian Capital Territory (15.2 per cent), New South Wales (1.8 per cent), Victoria (0.8 per cent), South Australia (0.7 per cent), Western Australia (0.7 per cent) and Queensland (0.4 per cent) but increased in the Northern Territory (9.2 per cent) and Tasmania (2.7 per cent). In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 0.4 per cent in June. Private sector house approvals fell in trend terms in South Australia (3.7 per cent), New South Wales (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.4 per cent) and Victoria (0.2 per cent), but rose in Queensland (0.3 per cent).

The value of total building approved fell 2.6 per cent in June, in trend terms, and has fallen for seven months. The value of residential building fell 0.5 per cent, while non-residential building fell 7.1 per cent in trend terms. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 3.7% in June and has risen for two months. The value of residential building fell 3.7% following a rise of 14.7%. The value of non-residential building rose 17.9% and has risen for two months.

ValueBuildingWorkJune2014Continued signs that low interest rates are not translating to strong growth in construction. We still are not building enough properties to meet demand, so expect house prices to continue to rise in some areas at least.

 

Building Activity Up In March Quarter – ABS

The ABS just released their Mar 2014 Quarterly Building Activity data for Australia. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building work done rose 3.7% to $21,822.5m in the March quarter, following a fall of 0.4% in the December quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of new residential building work done rose 7.6% to $11,249.5m in the March quarter. Work done on new houses rose 5.3% to $6,700.6m, while new other residential building rose 11.1% to $4,549.0m. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of non-residential building work done fell 0.3% in the March quarter, following a fall of 0.2% in the December quarter.

Looking at the trend data, we see that both housing starts, and unit starts are up. This reflected the building approvals previously reported. With approvals more recently strong, (the seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 26.1% in May after falling for four months, the value of residential building rose 13.5% after falling for three months, the value of non-residential building rose 59.5% after falling for four months), we should expect continued growth in construction starts.

Units-Started-May-2014Demand however continues to outstrip supply. We estimate that over the next three years we will need more than 900,000 new properties to meet demand, when over the last 12 months we achieved 176,891 units.