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CPI September quarter 2015 rises 0.5 per cent

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015.

The most significant price rises this quarter were in international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.6 per cent), fruit (+8.2 per cent) and property rates and charges (+4.6 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in vegetables (–5.9 per cent), telecommunication equipment and services (–2.0 per cent) and automotive fuel (–1.7 per cent).

The CPI rose 1.5 per cent through the year to the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.5 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2015.

Underlying inflation, using the mean trimmed data, is still within the RBA 2-3% target band, so there is no reason to expect an interest rate cut on this measure in November.

CPI June Quarter 2015 Rises 0.7 per cent – ABS

The ABS released the latest CPI data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2015.

This translates to an annual CPI of 1.5 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2015.

Underlying inflation is still in the 2-3% RBA target range, so there would be no impact of potential cash rate movements.

The most significant price rises this quarter were in automotive fuel (+12.2 per cent), medical and hospital services (+4.5 per cent) and new dwelling purchase by owner–occupiers (+1.5 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (–5.4 per cent) and pharmaceutical products (–1.8 per cent). The increase in fuel is registered in four of the five fuel types with the quarterly rise the largest since December 1990.

Core CPI Right In RBA Target Range

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2014, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. The CPI rose 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.7 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2014. The reading is flattered by a significant fall in fuel.

The underlying rate was 2.4%, right within the RBA target range, a little higher than expected, and as such it will more than likely tip the RBA in “hold” territory next month, when coupled with better than expected previous employment data, and hot Sydney property. Moreover, little evidence that a further cut would change the picture much (other than reducing savers ability to spend).

The most significant price rises this quarter were in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5 per cent), tertiary education (+5.7 per cent) and medical and hospital services (+2.2 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in automotive fuel (—12.2 per cent) and fruit (—8.0 per cent). The decrease in fuel was registered in all fuel types with the quarterly fall the largest since December 2008 and over the twelve months to March 2015, automotive fuel has decreased by 22.5 per cent. This is the largest yearly fall in the history of the series, beginning in September 1973.

CPI Down To 1.7%

According to the ABS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in the December quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.5% in the September quarter 2014. The CPI is trending down at the moment.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.8%), tobacco (+4.8%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%), These rises were partially offset by a fall in automotive fuel (–6.8%). Global oil markets continue to experience oversupply, which resulted in continued falls in oil prices. In Australia, average unleaded petrol prices reached a low of $1.17 per litre in December 2014, the lowest recorded average daily price since February 2009.

The CPI rose 1.7% through the year to the December quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.3% through the year to the September quarter 2014.

The fall in CPI may stimulate calls for the RBA to cut rates, but given that oil price falls already acts as a quasi rate cut, DFA believes a further cut in official rates is not required. The lower dollar and stable unemployment data also suggests there is no need for cuts, indeed, the next movement should be upwards.

CPI 3% Through Year To June 2014 – ABS

The ABS published the Consumer Price Index for the quarter to June 2014 today. The CPI rose 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.9% through the year to the March quarter 2014. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for medical and hospital services (+4.6%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%) and tobacco (+3.1%). These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%), automotive fuel (-2.7%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.6%).

This is at the top end of the RBA target, and highlights the fact they continue to have to balance, inflation, interest rates and other factors. They are still caught in the middle. Inflation is being assisted by the higher dollar exchange rate.