Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
I caught up with Troy Harris a Crypto Advocate and Author of “CRYPTO NEW RICH” in the week Bitcoin rose above US$80,000 after the recent Trump victory.
We explored what is going on here, and what factors could drive the price of Bitcoin even higher.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Crypto evangelist Adam Stokes as we examine the recent changes in the market, as gold rockets to new highs, even as rate cuts and QT is under way. Where is the real value of money, and how does Crypto play into this?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next.
Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to its historical correlation with price surges. But Bitcoin remains trapped within the consolidation phase that began in March. If a fresh wave of selling erupts due to global events, the critical support at $60,000 will be in focus.
Since last summer, Bitcoin has been heavily influenced by ETF inflows. Investors have placed more than $US12 billion into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds listed in the United States in the last month alone. Initially, spot Bitcoin ETF anticipation drove the price. Later, the launch of such ETFs accelerated institutional buying, propelling Bitcoin to pre-halving highs. With institutions now holding a significant amount of Bitcoin, any slowdown in ETF sales could delay the halving’s positive impact.
The halving last weekend marked the fourth event of its kind since the first bitcoin was produced on January 3, 2009. Following the halving, the number of bitcoin being “minted” globally each day will drop from around 900 to 450. The price of bitcoin has generally risen after each previous halving event.
Despite tracking sideways for much of the last month, the price of the cryptocurrency is still up more than 50 per cent since the start of the year. That compares to a 5.6 per cent return from the S&P 500 index and -0.1 per cent return from the ASX 200 since January 1.
https://www.youtube.com/@adamstokes
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next.
Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to its historical correlation with price surges. But Bitcoin remains trapped within the consolidation phase that began in March. If a fresh wave of selling erupts due to global events, the critical support at $60,000 will be in focus.
Since last summer, Bitcoin has been heavily influenced by ETF inflows. Investors have placed more than $US12 billion into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds listed in the United States in the last month alone. Initially, spot Bitcoin ETF anticipation drove the price. Later, the launch of such ETFs accelerated institutional buying, propelling Bitcoin to pre-halving highs. With institutions now holding a significant amount of Bitcoin, any slowdown in ETF sales could delay the halving’s positive impact.
The halving last weekend marked the fourth event of its kind since the first bitcoin was produced on January 3, 2009. Following the halving, the number of bitcoin being “minted” globally each day will drop from around 900 to 450. The price of bitcoin has generally risen after each previous halving event.
Despite tracking sideways for much of the last month, the price of the cryptocurrency is still up more than 50 per cent since the start of the year. That compares to a 5.6 per cent return from the S&P 500 index and -0.1 per cent return from the ASX 200 since January 1.
https://www.youtube.com/@adamstokes
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector that will broaden access to the largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond.
Now much is resting on the concept that the futures market has already brought crypto assets sufficiently into the financial mainstream.
The SEC was frankly bounced into this decision in response to the loss of some critical legal cases, and puts Bitcoin ever closer to existing financial services players. This does not necessarily mitigate risk.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler said “While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot Bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse Bitcoin,”. “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”
Crypto zealots have for years argued that a so-called spot fund that invests directly in Bitcoin would be beneficial to investors and would help bring the industry closer to the more highly regulated world of traditional finance. It also suggests a sort of milestone of maturity for the relatively nascent industry, where skirmishes with regulators came to a climax after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire highlighted risks lurking in the industry.
But of course, by definition, the mainstream approval this represents cuts right across the original ideology of Bitcoin already compromised by the significant use of derivatives, and becoming ever more controlled by large financial institutions and regulators.
Even after Gensler went to such lengths to say that the SEC wasn’t giving any seal of approval to Bitcoin, the odds remain that this will expose many more people to crypto’s risks and opportunities. So Caveat Emptor! Let The Buyer Beware!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Securities and Exchange Commission has for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector that will broaden access to the largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond.
Now much is resting on the concept that the futures market has already brought crypto assets sufficiently into the financial mainstream.
The SEC was frankly bounced into this decision in response to the loss of some critical legal cases, and puts Bitcoin ever closer to existing financial services players. This does not necessarily mitigate risk.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler said “While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot Bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse Bitcoin,”. “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”
Crypto zealots have for years argued that a so-called spot fund that invests directly in Bitcoin would be beneficial to investors and would help bring the industry closer to the more highly regulated world of traditional finance. It also suggests a sort of milestone of maturity for the relatively nascent industry, where skirmishes with regulators came to a climax after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire highlighted risks lurking in the industry.
But of course, by definition, the mainstream approval this represents cuts right across the original ideology of Bitcoin already compromised by the significant use of derivatives, and becoming ever more controlled by large financial institutions and regulators.
Even after Gensler went to such lengths to say that the SEC wasn’t giving any seal of approval to Bitcoin, the odds remain that this will expose many more people to crypto’s risks and opportunities. So Caveat Emptor! Let The Buyer Beware!
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Adam Stokes, as we examine the latest developments in Crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/@adamstokes
This is a replay of a live Q&A on the state of the crypto markets, with Adam Stokes https://www.youtube.com/@UC_LynnVoF0RJV6BjNJW26Ig
The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $1.22 Trillion, a -0.15% change in the last 24 hours and 25.83% change one year ago.
We look at the latest trends and fads, and set this in a broader discussion about the nature of money.
I caught up with the CEO of BTC Markets to discuss the broader perspectives on Crypto in the light of FTX.
https://www.btcmarkets.net/about-us
Perhaps we should be careful not to put the baby out with the bathwater!
“Our vision is to build the digital financial infrastructure for the future. We are moving forward with that overarching and audacious strategy and can clearly see how this will roll out.” Caroline Bowler CEO, BTC Markets
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
As I discussed in a recent post Australia is starting to look at a Central Bank Digital Currency programme, with a focus on retail customers. The design parameters and business case are yet to emerge, and I hope there will be considerable consultation around privacy, free choice and the continued used of cash. Around the work, work on CBDC’s are progressing.
China’s e-CNY, or digital yuan, project is essentially ready to go, with the country going slow to ensure mass adoption is effectively in place before the launch, on which it has placed a lot of prestige.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been an enthusiastic supporter of a digital euro, calling it “the holy grail” of cross-border payments. “To ensure financial stability in this digital age, it is crucial that we all still have easy access to central bank money, which is the foundation of our currency,” ECB President Christine Lagarde, said in July. “The digital euro can achieve that.” The ECB’s crypto front man Fabio Panetta said in May that a digital euro could launch within four years.
India and Russia are planning CBDC launches sooner than that, with India saying a CBDC could launch as soon as 2023. Almost all the G20 members are working on a CBDC to some degree. Sweden, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Brazil are all fairly advanced, while Africa’s largest country, Nigeria, launched its eNaira CBDC almost a year ago. Both South Africa and Ghana have live pilots up and running.
And more than a few governments have been clear that challenging the dollar’s hegemony is a goal, with the ECB’s Lagarde saying a “digital euro would also help to avoid market dominance.” So you could argue that Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have reached a critical mass, and enough major economies are challenging the greenback’s status as the world’s reserve currency (and all the power that comes with it) to shift the debate to matters of national prestige. Which then takes us to the US, where things are also getting started.
To that end, I want to discuss remarks made by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman where she suggested that she believes the FedNow real-time payments system will make a digital dollar unnecessary. But, perhaps the arguments that the U.S. will need a CBDC to defend the dollar’s place as the world’s reserve currency are winning, for reasons that have nothing to do with an actual need for a digital dollar or real-time payments. The financial superpower can’t afford to be left behind.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
