In our latest show we pull apart some of the recent property spruiking, look at the latest numbers and deep dive into the gap between the “speak” from policy makers and the “reality” of what they do. As a result we underscore the need to go local, and not be misled by high-level waffle!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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In our latest weekly market update, we start in the US, move to Europe and Asia and end in Australia as well as covering commodities and crypto, as a way of digesting all that has happened this past few days.
This past week, was again packed full of contradictory signals, with World stock indexes falling on Friday as a global cyber outage rattled investors by disrupting operations across multiple industries, while the dollar climbed alongside Treasury yields. All three US indices fell, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered their biggest weekly percentage declines since April. while Gold briefly traded below $US2400 an ounce, oil fell 3 per cent to trade below $US83 a barrel and iron ore slid 1 per cent, while the second quarter earnings season is off to a mixed start.
A growing number of analysts and strategists are telling clients there is fragility among the stock giants having touched highs recently. Now the dilemma for investors is after 10 months of a big rally, should investors stick with their big winners or change tack remembering that history says wealth is created by a tiny number of companies, and most stocks will make investors poorer.
The market is overbought but analysts are split on whether the strong breadth improvements will be bullish for stocks moving forward or a rotation away from technology where most of the growth has been means markets will fall.
As with global stocks, concentration in the Asia-Pacific region is at 35-year highs, and CBA (which has been the fourth-largest contributor to returns in the region in the past 20 years, on BofA’s numbers) has been a prime mover; it is one of just eight stocks that have delivered 80 per cent of the gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index this year.
There will be more madness ahead!!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My Saturday show highlighted the start of the rotation from tech stocks to the broader market, as exemplified in the trends in the NASDAQ and the Small Caps 2000. This trend has continued, and on Wednesday it went into overdrive as the world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales to China spurred a selloff in the industry that has led the bull market in stocks.
I was around for the dot-com bubble, a stock market bubble that ballooned during the late-1990s and peaked on Friday, March 10, 2000. This period of market growth coincided with the widespread adoption of the World Wide Web and the Internet, resulting in a dispensation of available venture capital and the rapid growth of valuations in new dot-com startups.
One common theme is “its different this time”. You cannot apply normal valuation rules, they do not apply. Well, of course the recent AI trends have been driven by confidence of a new business era, and people again are talking about new rules, despite the fact that companies like NVIDA have sold the lions share of their cards to established and cashed up big tech companies like Microsoft, and others in a weird feedback loop. The real benefits of AI for normal downstream businesses are still to come.
So are we seeing the start of another tech-wreck? I think its too soon to tell.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Perth. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades.
His understanding of market psychology has ensured valued investment strategies in bull and bear markets. Because of his ability to understand the small cap market space, Tony has been featured in dozens of well known publications across Australia, such as Small Caps, Sky Business, Digital Finance Analytics, and many more.
If you are looking for an investment manager who has your best interests at heart, Tony is the man for you. https://tonylocantro.com/
Tony Locantro’s Carnivore Transformation! https://youtu.be/FV0TWDeOG8E
Original show recording here: DFA Live Q&A: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble, This Time It’s Different! https://youtube.com/live/Tt7vpkujekM
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble!
A big show this week, as Edwin and I consider how international events impact local markets, distressed sales especially from investors rise, and more builders collapse as markets might be taking a breather.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Back in 2021 the Census revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”.
But now we have a new survey from economic research organisation Prosper Australia, looking at empty homes in Melbourne from 2019 to 2023. The report SPECULATIVE VACANCIES 11 makes the point that while around 30,000 people in Victoria have no home, it is hard to quantify the number of homes that have no people. This they attempt to do.
To access vacancy, Prosper measures vacancy rates across metropolitan Melbourne using data from Melbourne’s three water retailers – Yarra Valley Water, South East Water and Greater Western Water.
They found that of the 1.9 million dwellings with active water connections in the study area, in total 97,861 dwellings sat empty or under-used over the entire year: 5.2% of all dwellings in metropolitan Melbourne, or one in 20 homes. These vacant dwellings represent a huge pool of valuable resources not being used productively. At the average household size they could accommodate over 250,000 people.
If this were replicated across Australia, it could be there are sufficient spare homes to meet current need! This should be a top political issue, but one no-one wants to touch!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Shame Of Vacant Property In A Time Of Homelessness!
This is our weekly market update, starting in the US, then Europe, Asia and Australia and covering commodities and crypto.
This week, hopes of US interest rate cuts before the end of the year rose after data this week showed that inflation was cooling faster than expected, has muddied the waters, though all three US benchmarks powered higher, despite results from three major banks, which disappointed for different reasons. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.78, hitting another record intraday high.
The S&P 500 and Dow surged to all-time highs before giving up much of those gains by the close. So far this year, the Dow has risen 6.4%, underperforming the broader S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which have advanced 18.2% and 23.1%, respectively, over the same period. The S&P 500 was recently trading at 21.4 times forward earnings, compared to a historical average of 15.7, so its probably way over-valued!
Banks got hit at the start of the US earnings season after reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo slumped 6 per cent after warning it won’t be able to whittle away costs as fast as forecast, after the lender missed estimates for quarterly interest income. JPMorgan missed on a few key metrics like net interest income — despite posting record profit from by rising investment banking fees. However, shares of the world’s largest bank dipped 1.2%. Citigroup said costs for the year are likely to be at the high end of the range previously provided and fell 1.8% despite reporting a surge in investment banking revenue.
In Australia, the flagship S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.9 per cent, to a record 7959.3 points, to finish the week up 1.2 per cent. In the final session of the week, the market was helped higher by Australia’s largest bank, CBA which added 1.3 per cent to $131.66, extending a bull run that has sent shares up more than 30 per cent in 12 months. As CBA ended the day with a $220.3 billion market cap, it surpassing BHP’s $220.1 billion capitalisation. The latter finished the day 0.37 per cent lower at $43.40 after informing the market late on Thursday that it would suspend nickel mining operations in Western Australia. Friday marked the first time that CBA has overtaken BHP as Australia’s most valuable public company since November 2021.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Reach For The Stars, Even As A Nascent Turn Is Under Way!
Continuing my occasional series with George, where we go deep into tin-foil hat territory, we chat about democracy, and power, and how corporations interact with Governments and international non-governmental organisations, like the UN and WEF, and how this impinges on our lives.
Who are politicians working for really?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Down The Rabbit Hole (Once Again): A World Corporate Monopoly!
When I landed in Australia in 1995, I was immediately struck by the concept of a “fair-go” being right at the heart of the Australian psyche. But more recently it appeared to me that this was becoming something of a myth, as inequality and poverty started to expand and impinge on people who previously were able to get on, buy and house, and enjoy the Australian dream.
The Productivity Commission just released a research paper titled “Fairly equal? Economic mobility in Australia” and make the point that Inequality is a serious concern when people at the bottom of the income distribution cannot meet their basic needs or where they experience the stress of economic insecurity. And inequality is a serious concern when it limits people’s future opportunities. The countries with the highest inequality are also the countries with the lowest intergenerational mobility, with children from poor families more likely to be poor themselves.
The truth is the fair-go ideal is dissipating, and people are becoming less mobile economically speaking. Those with wealth in the family will enjoy the benefits, but a larger proportion of people are stuck in a poverty rut, and have few ways to escape. Bye-Bye Fair Go Australia.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
