Economics – Page 11 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Join us for another journey of exploration through the property market, as Edwin Almeida, our property insider, and I look at the latest data and headlines and try to figure what is really going on.

Are there early signs of listings easing lower – and who is, and who is not buying?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:14:39

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments for Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen. As we start the new financial year, how are the markets looking and what are they key trends ahead?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen

00:00 / 01:25:47

From Here, Where? As Uncertainty Haunts The Markets!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, and we also cover commodities and crypto, as I get my ideas straight for the next leg of the year. In essence, AI has driven markets hard, especially in the US, but market breadth is narrow, and risks remain elevated.

Shares in New York ended lower on Friday, reversing modest opening gains after the latest inflation data showed that the disinflation narrative was intact, widening ever so slightly the door to a pivot to rate cuts. So an early rally fizzled as investors digested in-line inflation data and weighed political uncertainty after the U.S. presidential debate where the shaky performance from U.S. President Joe against Donald Trump has just ratcheted November’s U.S. election uncertainty up substantially.

Data showed U.S. monthly inflation was unchanged in May, an encouraging development after strong price increases earlier this year raised doubts over the effectiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy. The Commerce Department report also showed consumer spending rose marginally last month, fueling optimism that the U.S. central bank could engineer a much-desired “soft landing” for the economy.

There was a late wave of selling the magnificent seven, with a 3 per cent tumble in Meta. Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft each closed more than 1 per cent lower though Tesla edged 0.2 per cent higher.

Wells Fargo noted that upcoming events, such as the November elections and potential delays in disinflation, may cause episodes of market volatility in the months ahead. Worth reflecting again on the fact that thirty percent of the S&P’s returns this year have come from Nvidia alone. It was now the most expensive stock on the most expensive market in the world and the Magnificent 7 accounts for 71% of the S&P 500 Index’s year-to-date return. Tightrope time?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

From Here, Where? As Uncertainty Haunts The Markets!

00:00 / 00:23:40

More Migration Madness!

High migration is putting pressure on home prices and rents, and lifting the demand for more infrastructure, and diluting the GDP per capital (share of wealth generated in the country across an ever-increasing population, 84% of which growth came from migration. So this is a big political hot potato.

Many are calling for a cut in migration to fall to a level consistent with the current capacity to build new homes, though of course the corporate and university sectors want ever more people in the country to keep wages low, and boost the number of households to sell things to, while the tax take rises, which is why The Federal Treasury want more people too.

There has been some lip service to attempt to streamline and better target Australia’s immigration system, though mainly focussing on a reduction in student numbers. But now, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil says regional communities should benefit more from overseas arrivals, including through changes to cumbersome occupation lists and settlement rules.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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More Migration Madness!

00:00 / 00:13:43

Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?

As I discussed on my live show, on Tuesday night with Leith van Onselen, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but there were signs of a more hawkish tone from the meeting notes, and the subsequent press conference (which I might add is becoming less useful each time thanks to weak questions supporting weak answers, come on MSM do your job….).

Bullock was clear, we need more data, there are risks to the upside from sticky inflation, but employment is also an important factor, given their dual mandate.

Just remember folks, the RBA at 4.35% is significantly below several other Central Banks, including the Bank of England, which held rates on Thursday at 5.25%, despite inflation falling to 2% last month, Bank of Canada which cut rates by 0.25% to 4.75% and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank holding rates at 5.5%, despite driving the economy there into recession.

Which begs the question, has the RBA done enough on rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy in Australia, despite being lower the peers, mainly because in Australia a greater proportion of mortgages are linked to variable rates than other countries. Economists are divided, with Leith still holding the next cut will be down, as unemployment rises.

But writing on Monday, before the RBA decided to hold rates on Tuesday, Economist Warren Hogan, at the more bullish end of commentators on RBA rates, wrote in the AFR that the flow of data since the last meeting in early May made it a very close call to hold off on further tightening.

The narrow path is still attainable, but it increasingly looks like we will need to get rates up closer to 5 per cent to stay on it.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?

00:00 / 00:14:48

Construction Firms Failures Hit A New Peak: There Will Be Consequences…

Last week, yet another building and construction firm hit the wall, collapsing into liquidation owing $5.7m straddling two different states and territories, leading to a “domino effect” impacting 130 projects and 80 staff members.

This is part of the continuing litany of failure, as data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) shows that a total of 1,245 companies were declared insolvent in May alone.

This is 44% higher than the same period in 2023 and 122% higher than in May 2022. It is also the highest number of insolvencies in a single month since ASIC started reporting this data in 1999. The surge in insolvencies was driven by the construction sector, which recorded 313 insolvencies in May – a record for this cycle.

This is an object lesson for anyone considering contracting with the building and construction firm of any size; do your own due diligence! It also presents another barrier to the Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes in five years—a level of construction that Australia has never achieved before, despite record activity compared with other countries and over 5% of people working in the sector.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Construction Firms Failures Hit A New Peak: There Will Be Consequences…

00:00 / 00:12:02

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Housing Poker Game: With Leith van Onselen

This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and co-founder of MacroBusiness.

In this show we discussed the recent developments in the housing market, and how economics is playing into the current broken system. Governments are not being transparent about their motives, or their continued intervention into the market.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Housing Poker Game: With Leith van Onselen

00:00 / 01:27:32

Hello, I’m From The Government, And I’m Here To Help You! (Honest!!?)

It’s raining “announcables” at the moment, with interesting developments this past week on the housing and finance front as city, state and federal Governments continue to poke at the broken system. Schemes include, government buying off the plan to give construction firms a leg up, cheap housing for essential workers, changes to lending rules, higher council rates for investors, and further crackdowns on airB&B.

While these may sound attractive from a media positioning perspective, they will hardly move the dial on the broken housing system in Australia. It’s a case of fiddling while Rome burns.

In fact, for more on the broken system, join me on my live show next Tuesday evening at 8pm Sydney, when I will be joined by Leith Van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth as we discuss “The Great Housing Poker Game”.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Hello, I’m From The Government, And I’m Here To Help You! (Honest!!?)

00:00 / 00:23:05