Australian Households Pay More Because The System Is Rigged: Report

You have been hit by large rises in grocery, energy, transport, child and aged care prices, only adding to other cost of living pressures, according to a bombshell report. But the report argues the ongoing cost of living crisis is largely due to corporations unduly increasing prices.

As the Conversation reported, while extreme weather and supply delays have contributed to the increases, an inquiry into what’s causing the hikes has confirmed what commentators and consumers suspected – many sectors are resorting to dodgy price practices and confusing pricing.

Headed by the former Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) boss, Allan Fels, on behalf of the ACTU, the inquiry found inflation, questionable pricing practices, a lack of price transparency and regulations, a lack of market competition, supply chain problems and unrestricted price setting by retailers are to blame for fuelling the increases.

The inquiry, which released its final report on Wednesday, is one of four examining price rises. The other three are being undertaken by a Senate committee, the Queensland government and the ACCC, which has been given extra powers by the government.

The official inflation rate in Australia peaked at 7.8% in December 2022 and has been gradually dropping since then.

While the inquiry found higher prices contributed to inflation, it reported that businesses claimed it was inflation that caused price rises – making it a chicken-or-egg kind of problem.

However, many businesses made enormous profits in 2022-23, which the inquiry said contributed to rising prices and inflation. In most cases, post-pandemic profit margins were much higher than before the pandemic.

The current pricing practices for all business sectors must improve for greater transparency and to protect Australian consumers from unfair pricing.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Australian Households Pay More Because The System Is Rigged: Report
Loading
/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth. Markets are rising, thanks mainly to AI related stocks, while expectations of rate cuts are being pushed out. More broadly, are returns able to justify current valuations, and which sectors are the most interesting ahead.

Original stream with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/lqYE35qTatw

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now With Damien Klassen
Loading
/

Markets Play Chicken With All Time Highs, As Risks Rise!

This is my regular weekly market update.

Investors hate surprises and we got many this week – to the point where I begin to wonder whether markets are fundamentally broken as they were driven higher by good results from some of the magnificent seven, despite the shock revelation of mounting losses from commercial property by little-known banks in New York and Tokyo. And then the US jobs number came in so hot, as to lift bond yields while Central Bankers this week played a cautious hand, suggesting that they need to see more evidence before they start cutting rates, against market expectations.

Let’s start with commercial property. The problems particularly the office sector are well known: a combination of remote work and ageing buildings has pushed up vacancy rates and pushed down valuations; office property values in the US fell more than 20 per cent last year.

That’s a problem for landlords that must refinance loans against commercial property; about $US2.2 trillion of loans from the US and European commercial real estate sectors will come due between now and 2025.

US property billionaire Barry Sternlicht told a conference this week the US office property sector was worth $US3 trillion, and now it’s worth $US1.8 trillion. “There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.” At least some is in America’s regional banks, where commercial property loans account for about 30 per cent of all loans, compared with 6.5 per cent at large US banks.

Regional US lender New York Community Bancorp and Japan’s Aozora revealed problems with commercial property loans and dropped their share prices significantly underscored a critical question: is this the start of something bigger? Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says that even if banks holding this debt can cope with the losses, it crimps their ability to lend to other businesses.

But if there’s one broader lesson from the sudden re-emergence of commercial property fears, then it’s this: we still haven’t cleared out the excesses that built up in the era of very low interest rates, and were compounded during the pandemic period of extreme froth.

The world is now so indebted, and so financialised, that these cycles aren’t allowed to occur. With “households and corporates becoming hooked on leverage”, we can’t let bubbles pop because they’re “the essence of our economies”.

This is why investors are cheering the prospect of rate cuts with such gusto. And it’s why the fear of higher-for-longer interest rates – which the Federal Reserve reminded the world of on Thursday by killing off hopes of a March cut – is still real.

“The market has been horribly wrong about the near-term trajectory of Fed policy and this is another instance where that’s the case,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab in New York.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Play Chicken With All Time Highs, As Risks Rise!
Loading
/

Markets Drop As The FED Reaffirms Higher For Longer Rates; Again…

Markets were disappointed yesterday, as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting as expected but more importantly signaled the possibility of a rate cut, but later in the year and pretty much ditched the prospect of a reduction in March, which some optimistic economists were banking on.

As a result, Stocks saw their biggest decline on a Federal Reserve day since last March after Jerome Powell said officials want to keep their options open instead of rushing to cut interest rates.

“If stock bulls expected a rate cut in March, Powell seems to have closed the door on that,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.

As a result, and other significant news, the S&P 500 fell 1.61%, the most since September while the Dow fell 0.82% and the NASDAQ slid 2.23%.

Treasuries rose as fresh concerns about regional lenders added to economic worries after New York Community Bancorp’s surprise loss which dragged their shares down by 38% after it cut its dividend and posted a surprise loss. As a result, Regional U.S. bank stocks sank on Wednesday, renewing fears over the health of similar lenders.

Interest rates took the elevator going up — but are going to take the stairs coming down.

Now we turn to the Bank of England, which will hold rates again today, and markets are not expecting a possible cut until later in the year – higher for longer, again!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Economics Now: With Leith van Onselen

This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest trends in population, home prices and productivity with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith writes as the Unconventional Economist. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Original live stream and chat here: https://youtube.com/live/eclazIUDbz8

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Its Our Australia Day Special: With Tarric Brooker!

Another dose of charts and common sense from Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest data and explore the implications for Australians on Australia Day. Houses and Holes, mate, Houses and Holes!

See the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-january-2024

And Tarric’s article on the Houthi Strikes, The Closure Of The Gate Of Grief And The Sea Of Economic Consequences https://avidcom.substack.com/p/houthi-strikes-the-closure-of-the

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Our Australia Day Special: With Tarric Brooker!
Loading
/

Falling Trend Hours Worked May Signal Interest Rate Peak!

Economists got a surprise today as employment fell 65,100 in the month, compared with an average expected rise of 15,000, as hours worked and participation both fell. That said, the prospect of the RBA delivering one final rise in February appears over. Only a big surprise in the December quarter inflation numbers, which will be released on January 31, could force economists to revise their near universal forecast for rates to remain on hold next month. And the monthly inflation data doesn’t point to a shock.

The ABS Labour Force statistics for December was based on surveys run from Sunday 26 November to Saturday 9 December, and collected over the period from Sunday 3 December to Wednesday 20 December. They also rotate the sample, with the new incoming group showing a higher unemployment rate than the outgoing group.

The results from the survey showed that in seasonally adjusted terms with employment dropping by 65,000 people, along with a small fall in the number of unemployed people (1,000), the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9 per cent in December.

Actually, the falling participation rate stopped the Unemployment rate from climbing as hiring eases, though perhaps most concerning is the trend in hours worked, which has been falling for the better part of a year. How much of this is summer holiday related is an open question, but it seems more structural to me. We also need to note the loss of 106,000 full time jobs, compared to 41,000 part time roles, especially among part-time women. And remember given the current migration settings we need more that 30,000 additional jobs just to stand still.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Falling Trend Hours Worked May Signal Interest Rate Peak!
Loading
/

Operation “Uncertainty Protect” As Bets Rises…

This is our regular weekly market update.

Things got interesting this week on the markets, as U.S. stocks closed barely changed on Friday, after wavering between modest gains and losses driven by mixed bank earnings offset cooler-than-expected inflation news that buoyed hopes for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

After briefly topping 4800 points in early trading, the S&P 500 fluctuated, slipping modestly negative in the final hour before edging higher at the close. And note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.

Expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Fed in March moved up to 79.5%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, from 73.2% in the prior session. Friday’s data also sent Treasury yields lower, although recent comments by some central bank officials have pushed back on any potential rate cuts.

On Friday, data showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December as the cost of goods such as food and diesel fuel declined, while prices for services were unchanged for a third consecutive month, in contrast to Thursday’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading. The headline inflation rose more than expected to 3.4% from 3.1% printed a month earlier.

But all in all, yesterday’s inflation report was less than ideal, and the market reaction was mixed. The US 2-year and 10-year first rose then fell, whereas you would expect a swift shift in dovish Fed expectations following a bigger-than-expected jump in US headline inflation. The 2-year was last at 4.146 and the 10-year 3.944.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Operation “Uncertainty Protect” As Bets Rises...
Loading
/

It’s All Happening – Again! With Tarric Brooker…

My first Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, Journalist and Chart-Meister.

Will recent developments force a replay of the recent inflation crisis and keep rates higher for longer. If so, what are the potential implications politically and economically?

His charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-january-2024

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
It’s All Happening - Again! With Tarric Brooker...
Loading
/

US Inflation Still Hanging Around

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics just released their December 2023 inflation read which showed the consumer price index increased 3.4% in the year through December, the most in three months and on a monthly basis, it also rose by more than forecast.

The shift up was driven by Americans paying more for housing and driving, challenging investor bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Used-car prices increased for a second month, defying expectations for a decline.

The CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in December from a month earlier. On an annual basis, the so-called core measure increased 3.9%. Economists favor the core metric as a better gauge of the trend in inflation than the overall CPI.

Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index and contributed to more than half of its advance, rose 0.5% in December. The gain included a rise in hotel prices that were down in the prior month. Economists see a sustained moderation in this category as key to bringing core inflation down to the Fed’s target.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
US Inflation Still Hanging Around
Loading
/