Stock markets are down, superannuation funds diminished, and property prices sliding as Chris Joye’s Latest missive shows. So, the answer to my question is probably no, unless you are a politician still receiving a generous pay rise, or a high-flying executive or you are working in high demand areas like information technology or finance, or perhaps construction. And those in the public sector are most likely to be saying no even louder.
The Australian Institute in November said that Australian workers are about to have twelve years of real wages growth wiped out in 3 years as the The Reserve Bank’s November Statement on Monetary Policy revealed just how badly Australian workers are being hit by the current weak growth in wages and fast rising inflation.
In August the Reserve Bank was anticipating that wages in the 12 months to December this year would rise at 3.0%. This has now been increased to 3.1%. That would suggest a better situation for workers, but unfortunately, the RBA has increased its estimate for inflation for the same period from the 7.8% it had in August to now 8.0%. That represents a real wage fall of 4.54% compared to its estimate in August of 4.45%.
All up the new estimates out to the end of 2024 suggest that real wages by December 2024 will be 2.2% lower than they were in June this year. That is again worse than the 1.8% fall estimated in August.
But comparing real wages from June this year misses out on the massive falls that have already occurred. By the end of 2024 the Reserve Bank now estimates that real wages will be some 5.4% below where they were in March 2020 just before the pandemic occurred.
It means that at the end of 2023 workers will on average only be able to buy the same amount of items and services with their wage as they were 15 years earlier in December 2008.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Are You Feeling Wealthy Then? The Wages And Inflation Problem! [Podcast]
This is a recording of a recent interview I gave on ABC New Radio, where I discussed the latest IMF report which highlights the risks to the Australian Property market. Australia has one of the most “misaligned” housing and rental markets in the developed world, leading to high priced land and houses.
Property prices in Australia may be as much as 50 per cent above what an average household can afford as interest rates rise, a global analysis has revealed while warning the market is at risk of a major crash as interest rates are pushed up to bring inflation under control.
We hold the prize for unaffordable housing, and rents, and the IMF believe we are due a correction. Is this likely? Will the Government save us?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Talking About An Australian Property Price Crash On The Radio! [Podcast]
Investors have dumped equities at a record pace in the days since major central banks signaled, they won’t be deterred in their fight against inflation—a fitting end to the worst year for world stocks since the global financial crisis. Equity funds were hit by outflows of almost $42 billion, the highest ever, in a week when the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all sounded staunchly hawkish notes in their policy outlook for next year, squashing bets of an imminent return to the era of cheap money.
The markets drifted into a weary close ahead of the Christmas break and closed slightly higher on Friday and Treasury yields advanced as investors digested a deluge of economic data ahead of the holiday long weekend. But this capped a week fraught with worries over the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy and related recession fears, and volumes were way down, with thin trading volumes creating more exaggerated moves Thursday and Friday. On U.S. exchanges 7.75 billion shares changed hands on Friday compared with the 11.41 billion averages for the last 20 sessions.
On the political front, The U.S. House of Representatives passed the $1.7 trillion bill to fund government operations on Friday by a vote of 255-201, paving the way for President Joe Biden to sign it into law.
Investors have been jittery since last week as the Fed indicated that it remains stubbornly committed to achieving the 2 per cent inflation goal and projected rate hikes to above 5 per cent in 2023, a level not seen since 2007. The markets are on edge over what the path for Fed policy is going to be for next year as that’s going to drive the economy and corporate earnings.
CONTENT
0:00 Start 00:17 Introduction 2:00 US Macro 4:08 Latest PCE 6:35 US Markets 8:40 Gold, Oil 10:50 Europe 12:45 Japan Surprise 14:40 China and COVID 16:20 Australian Markets 19:45 Australian Macro 22:30 Crypto 23:40 Close
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Muddling Through: Market Update For Week To 24th Dec 2022 [Podcast]
This is an edited version of my recent live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro from Alto Capital in Perth as we reflect on the year that was, and what is coming in 2023. Plenty more Locantro Bingo…
We fixed up the audio glitch which was on the live version https://youtu.be/9E4XqabXhzM
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Tony Locantro - Year In Review And Ahead [Podcast]
The latest ABS stats show a remarkable turnaround in net overseas migration as the “Big Australia” policy is re-activated. But as a result, we are likely to exceed the Government targets, with a large influx of students and workers, which are likely to depress wages growth, put upward pressure on rentals and increase congestion in our major Cities.
Big Australia, without joined up planning, will be another disaster, to the detriment on many ordinary Australians, while supporting the property, business, and education lobbyists.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we walk through the key charts as we come to the end of 2022. So, what might 2023 look like?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited and updated version of a show originally posted on “In The Interests Of The People”, with Economist John Adams and I discussing the current ASIC inquiry being run in the Senate.
There were some answers provided last week to questions on notice about ASIC’s conduct in terms of trying to lobby to stop the inquiry.
But in late breaking news, and not covered in the earlier show, further questions and answers were posted late last Friday evening (putting the trash out?) demonstrating just how unwilling the Corporate Regulator is in terms of disclosure. Is this contempt?
The earlier IOTP show, where we also discuss how Crypto plays into this, is available here. https://youtu.be/JPoOyV3Mvis
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
In another wild week, where FED speak on one hand, and hopium on the other drove markets all over the show, the Dow ended higher on Friday as investors weighed up further hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and the latest wave of quarterly results from retailers. Looking to the shortened trading week ahead, the Fed’s minutes from its October meeting will garner investor attention for clues on the central bank’s thinking on monetary policy.
Chief Hawk, St. Louis Fed President Bullard said this week that “Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation,” in an analysis by the St. Louis Fed that debated the appropriate rate regime for the central bank after six increases since March.
CONTENTS 0:00 Introduction 0:40 US Monetary Policy
4:15 US Markets
6:00 Oil 12:22 Gold 15:20 Europe and UK
18:00 ECB Monetary Policy
21:10 Asia 25:02 Australia
27:30 Crypto Winter 28:10 Close
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A quick market update and a deep dive in the UK’s budget announcement, which was as political as it gets! The headline is households will go backwards, as unemployment rises, and a 2-year recession is likely. Worse, personal income tax bands are frozen, so the total tax take will be bigger than ever!
Investment allowances have been cut, and the future Government spending cuts have been pushed out beyond the next election.
The cost of debt to the Government rises.
This scenario is one we should expect to see playing out in other economies too. Living standards will drop.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Biggest Drop In Living Standards In Many Decades... [Podcast]
