Economics – Page 3 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Trick or Treat? The Markets Are Confused!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the UK, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. And yes folks, this is a dense data-rich show, so be warned!

On Friday, global stocks slipped, finishing the week lower amid U.S. election jitters, while oil prices rose due to concerns about fighting in the Middle East. Israel hit back with further if somewhat restrained strikes on military targets in Iran overnight, so that may change sentiment next week, we will see.

Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris are polling neck-and-neck in crucial swing states ahead of the Nov. 5 election. Investors are anxious about a contested result roiling world markets and unleashing fresh geopolitical uncertainty.

But a rally in stocks faded as banks dragged down the broader market despite gains in tech shares. And bitcoin slumped after a news report that federal investigators are probing cryptocurrency firm Tether.

As the earnings season rolled in, traders also braced for the US presidential election and key economic data — including next week’s jobs report — for clues on the scope for Federal Reserve rate cuts. We are coming up to a couple of pivotal weeks which could well shape the markets for months ahead.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Trick or Treat? The Markets Are Confused!

00:00 / 00:26:58

The Jobs Printer Goes Brrrr… With Tarric Brooker

I am joined by Tarric Brooker, journalist and chartmeister as we look at the changing face of Australia, as shown by household formation, and demographics. It seems politicians are playing the spin game, whilst ignoring the realities for real people.

Tarric’s article here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/can-government-print-jobs-and-what

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Jobs Printer Goes Brrrr… With Tarric Brooker

00:00 / 00:57:32

Inflation Fears Still Haunt (Especially Australia)…

The Washington-based IMF just published In its biannual world economic outlook, which said that central banks had scored a major achievement to return inflation to the pre-pandemic average without inflicting a global recession.

They go one to say that economic developments over the past four years have had a lot to do with how individual countries have deployed fiscal and monetary policies since the pandemic.

Australia’s choice to hold rates lower, whilst lifting government debt (across states and federally) with most new jobs created in the public sector, thus crimping productivity. This plus high migration has kept inflation well above band, and with little prospect of cuts any time soon, but so far have avoided a technical recession, although many households still are feeling the pinch.

New Zealand lifted rate faster and higher, and hit a recession, but is now cutting, has cut migration, and did not pump-up jobs in the public sector as Australia did. It will be interesting to see which strategy provides the better long-term outcomes.

But for now, the fear of entrenched inflation and higher interest rates for longer suggests that the inflation battle in Australia has yet to be won. And with an election due by May next year, this could well spell trouble for the current Government, though I am not sure the other mob are any better!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Inflation Fears Still Haunt (Especially Australia)…

00:00 / 00:15:55

Its Edwin’s Wednesday Evening Property Rant!

Yes, we are back with our latest Rant as Edwin makes an offer for Albo’s property, we pull apart the latest announcables, and point out the risks in the market, if you believe the wrong sources of information.

Next week we are back to our normal Monday time slot.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Wednesday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:15:04

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Can Property “Save” The Australian Economy? With Leith van Onselen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, Leith van Onselen, who is also the co-founder of Macrobusiness. Given the raft of property related announceables from the politicians, will it make any difference, or are we set for a slow-down, or worse?

Original stream with live chat here: https://youtube.com/live/zRxdM8_o8JE

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Can Property “Save” The Australian Economy? With Leith van Onselen

00:00 / 01:32:40

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Can Property “Save” The Australian Economy? With Leith van Onselen

Original stream with live chat here: https://youtube.com/live/zRxdM8_o8JE

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

UK Inflation Falls Below Target (For Now)…

The UK CPI read for September 2024 as reported by the Office of National Statistics came in at 1.7%, which was below the Bank of England’s 2% target, and lower than analysts had been expecting. The BOE had estimated at 2.1% back in August. On a monthly basis, CPI was little changed in September 2024, down from a rise of 0.5% in September 2023.

The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in the CPI annual rates came from transport, with larger negative contributions from air fares and motor fuels; the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Services inflation in particular fell significantly thanks to air fares and hotel accommodation being cheaper, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.2% read which was expected.

This all but locked a further rate cut from the Bank of England when the Monetary Policy Committee next meets. The September read is also used to set the uplift in benefits next spring.

The UK Pound slipped against the USD, while yields on both the 2-year and 10-year gilts moved lower.

Overall inflation may be down, for now, but the pace of food price increases rose for the first time since early last year while the costs associated with living in your own home grew at the fastest since 1992. For homeowners and those looking to get a mortgage, therefore, the prospects of lower interest rates will certainly be welcome. But the Bank of England will continue in cautious mode, as they expect inflation to pick up again in the months to come.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

UK Inflation Falls Below Target (For Now)...

00:00 / 00:07:47

The Falls In Home Prices Are Accelerating: What Next?

Last Tuesday in my live show about the latest from our surveys, we walked through our scenarios, for property prices over the next 3 years, by each state. I’ll recap that segment from the show, but before I do here is a screen grab from Sydney Auctioneer Tom Panos, who says “The Sydney Real Estate Market is in a price fall. It’s a great time to buy in the next few months”. Well, it’s certainly looking like a buyers’ market, but not sure I would rush in now. Even Albo switched from an auction to private treaty for the sale of his investment property in Dulwich Hill! As Tom Panos put it, “they are not going to get crazy bidding on the day”.

Real Estate.com published an article on the 12th October 2024 with the title “$75k down in 3 months” The inner-city hotspots in freefall. The article referred to Brisbane.

Pressure on households is leading to a fall in consumption and savings. Second, consumer confidence is in the gutter, and third business investment is flat, suggesting that we may see unemployment rising ahead. In the light of that, I will let you decide which of our three scenarios looks most likely to eventuate. Oh and of course the RBA seems to be holding firm on higher for longer interest rates as bond rates also move higher.

So the bottom line, it’s a time for extra caution, especially as more investment properties on a net cash flow basis are under water. But as always its important to go granular and get the local data as each market is different, and also do due diligence on a property if you do decided to make an offer, as capital appreciation might be limited at best for the foreseeable future.

I will be discussing this further on my Monday Rant with Property Insider Edwin Almeida, so look out for that show tomorrow.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Falls In Home Prices Are Accelerating: What Next?

00:00 / 00:13:39

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In tonight’s show we emphasize the need to do real due diligence when considering property and listen in to a live call with an agent on this important topic. We also discuss the latest political debates around the property market, and Edwin’s tip of the week should spark some ideas!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:14:42

More Records Broken, As Markets Swing Positive, For Now…

This is our weekly market update, a data-packed show where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way.

The wild ride on the markets continued this week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow scoring record closing highs on Friday, thanks to big boosts from financial stocks after banks reported strong quarterly results despite the fact the latest inflation data fueled expectations for a smaller U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in November. Traders kept bets steady for a roughly 88% probability the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, and a 12% chance it will leave rates unchanged. A slower pace of interest rate cuts potentially presents pressure on Wall Street, given that U.S. stock valuations scaled record highs on expectations of a sharp reduction in rates.

Major financial companies kicked off earnings season with upbeat comments from their top executives that should further ease investor worries that elevated borrowing costs were weighing on consumers and pushing the economy to the cusp of a downturn.

The US reporting season will gather momentum over the next three weeks amid general optimism. Still, concerns persist that stock prices have risen too fast, that the labour market is weakening fast and investors are on alert for geopolitical and US presidential election shocks.

European stock markets traded marginally higher on Friday, as investors digested lackluster British growth data.

China’s highly anticipated announcement of financial stimulus plans on Saturday was big on intent but low on the measurable details that investors need to ratify their recent return to the world’s second-biggest stock market. Saturday’s news conference by Finance Minister Lan Foan reiterated Beijing’s broad plans to revive the ailing economy, with promises made on significant increases to government debt and support for consumers and the property sector.

The Australian share market edged lower on Friday as traders awaited further signs of direction in the global economy after evidence of weakness once again reared its head in the US.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

More Records Broken, As Markets Swing Positive, For Now…

00:00 / 00:24:33