Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Is the US in recession or not? Well the “official figures” are unsure, and despite the inverted yield curve (2-10) you can still argue there is no recession, which gives latitude to the Fed to hike further and faster.
We may hear something about this at Jackson Hole, the Central Bankers’ love-in!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with Tarric Brooker, @AvidCommentator on Twitter.
His charts are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-19th-august-2022
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of economics with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at the Nucleus Wealth and a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
JPMorgan holds tens of billions of dollars in gold in vaults in London, New York and Singapore. It is one of four clearing members of the London market, where global gold prices are set by buying and selling metal held in a few London vaults — including JPMorgan’s and the Bank of England’s.
JPMorgan is the biggest player among a small group of “bullion banks” that dominate the precious metals markets, and thanks to a recent US court case, and the internal documents presented by prosecutors we got a glimpse of just how dominant a role the bank has played and how the Gold market works. In 2010, for example, 40% of all transactions in the gold market were cleared by JPMorgan.
This is important because as I have said many times, the 50 times plus relationship between physical gold holdings and the various derivatives held against it means it is a highly manipulated market, which sits at the heart of the financial system.
So today we will look at the case, and how so called called “spoof” trades — large orders intended to manipulate prices that were quickly canceled works.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A remarkable division has emerged between those calling we have passed the bottom in the current stock market cycle, and those who say we are right in the middle of a bear market rally which will peter out before a further, and significantly deeper fall ahead.
Why? Because on one hand recent results from many stocks have been pretty good, (though future performance is not guaranteed) while inflation some are thinking has peaked. Yet on the other hand, Central Banks are still lifting rates, and consumer confidence is tanking while home prices are easing. And inflation is still way over target.
So, who will be proved more right? In this week’s market review we will start in the US, go across to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, as well as touching on metals, oil and crypto.
US stocks finished the week on solid footing, with traders assessing whether an inflation slowdown could soon make the Federal Reserve reduce the pace of its most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades and prevent a hard landing.
Defying the crowd of sceptics who dubbed the rebound a bear-market rally, short-covering or unwinding of hedges, the S&P 500 notched its fourth straight week of gains — the longest winning run since November — with big tech leading gains on Friday.
The gauge has recouped half of its losses from January through June, topping the so-called 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. It’s now sitting about 1.5 per cent below its 200-day average — a threshold crossed by the Russell 2000 gauge of small caps.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I discussed the latest macro with Steve Van Metre, from the US. What are the current market signals saying: how will it play out?
Steven Van Metre, Certified Financial Planner™ Professional, (CA Insurance License #0D45202 & Investment Advisory Representative with Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisory firm.) is a financial planner, portfolio manager, and President of Steven Van Metre Financial. He specializes in retirement income strategies and the direct management of client assets.
https://stevenvanmetre.com/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRIQM-CUkxVazVPv980YZsw/videos
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Financial Sector veteran Roger Brown to discuss the rise and fall of Australian property, and the agencies responsible for the mess we are in.
Roger sheets much of the blame on APRA, plus poor policy from the RBA and Treasury.
The net effect is the disenfranchisement of younger households, and the creation of spurious “wealth”.
The truth is, many are going to find the next few years very tough, and there are risks to financial stability.
Roger is on Twitter as @bankcustomers
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker about economics, monetary police and social trends. His charts are available to view at https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-5th-august-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market review in what was a chaotic week, we look at how the financial markets reacted to bad news on inflation, and rising target rates from Central Banks, and solid earnings from tech megacaps which brought some solace to traders though worries about recession risk remain.
After Thursday’s data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter, stocks rose as traders bet rates would rise more slowly. But is this rally within a bear market or the start of a new bull market. I will give you a clue – hopium is driving things not logic. But after a horrific first half, the S&P 500 had its best month since November 2020 and Nasdaq 100 had its strongest performance since April of that same year. But this could come to haunt the Federal Open Market Committee.
US financial conditions are looser than they were when Fed hiked in March. So the spike raises the question of when the rebound itself starts to work against the goal of draining bloat from the economy.
It’s an issue investors must weigh in calculating the recovery’s staying power. “Our view is that earnings for all equity classes likely will peak in 2022 and move lower as the economy weakens, revenue growth stalls and input costs remain elevated,” strategists with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note on Thursday.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We are coming to the pointy end of the action now, with the Nasdaq closing lower on Monday after a choppy session for U.S. equities ahead of a big week of technology earnings reports while oil prices rose and treasury yields edged higher as investors braced for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
The S&P 500 see-sawed on Monday and ended close to unchanged.
Meanwhile in Australia the head of APRA, the entity responsible for banking supervision is going, while the local bond market is in pieces.
In currencies, the dollar index, which touched a 20-year high this month, was down slightly and gold also slipped, as did bitcoin.
Concern that rising interest rates will drive the economy into a recession has been escalating as the Fed tightens monetary policy aggressively to bring down the steepest inflation in four decades. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession, which he has continued to maintain the nation can avoid.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
