Tag: employment data

The Employment Numberwang Confuses The Markets Upwards!

Fickle investors are no longer pricing the possibility of another cash rate rise from the RBA after data released overnight showed US inflation cooled to 3.4 per cent in April, putting an end to a three-month streak of hotter-than-expected US CPI data; and the Australian Employment numbers from the ABS peak up to an unemployment rate of 4.1%, from a revised 3.9% last month.

This bad news is good news drove the ASX 1.65 per cent higher today, and the US markets already went into record territory, again on the falling inflation read.

Now I have been highlighting that the unemployment series from the ABS has been unreliable, with significant swings month on month. This time the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an unusually large jump in the number of unemployed people who were waiting to start a new job, amid broader signs the jobs market remains strong and is easily absorbing a surge in migrant workers on one hand, but we know from other data the number of job opening are falling. About 7.1 per cent of unemployed people last month had a job they were waiting to start, which was a record compared to previous April periods, the ABS said.

Nothing really new here – recall that the in January, unemployment increased to 4.1 per cent due to a surge in the number of jobless people waiting to start work, it fell back to 3.7 per cent the following month when they officially became employed.

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Up The Unemployment Curve….

The April ABS release showed a surprise small rise in the unemployment rate. So we look at the figures and ask if this is significant, given the budget papers expectation of higher unemployment ahead.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/apr-2023

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The Great Employment Numberwang Continues In January!

Lots of mistaken observations about the latest ABS Employment figures. So we look at the statistical anomalies which explain the differences, and look at the different methods used compared with the Roy Morgan series.

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Is Employment On The Turn?

The ABS released their latest data on the labour market today, and it was not quite what was expected by the markets. In fact the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.5 per cent in August 2022, according to the ABS.

The key reason for the rise in unemployment was the 0.2% lift in the labour force participation rate to 66.6%. The participation rate now sits just below the record high 66.8% recorded in June.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side. Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make. Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest. Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Hot Employment Data …But?

We examine the latest ABS data relating to employment for May 2022. The engine is running hot, but many more than usual are off sick. Rates are probably close to as low as they will go, as rates rise and business investment falters.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/may-2022

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Signs Of Great Economic Management?

We look at the latest employment numberwang, as well as the consumer confidence and leading indicators. Are the current mob good economic managers?

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Unemployment Conundrum

The ABS released their Labour statistics data today, and in came in line ball with last month. Not as strong as economists were expecting. That said, the labour market is tight because external labour supply from temporary works and migration has stalled thanks to the pandemic. Essentially the supply has dropped by around 500,000. So this is hardly great economic management, and if migration is powered up again, the unemployment will rise. The latest projections are for a fall to 3. Something then a subsequent reversal as migration kicks in.

And remember the threshold is an hour worked to qualify as employed!
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.0 per cent in March 2022, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS, said: “With employment increasing by 18,000 people and unemployment falling by 12,000, the unemployment rate decreased slightly in March, though remained at 4.0 per cent in rounded terms.
“4.0 per cent is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. Lower rates were seen in the series before November 1974, when the survey was quarterly.”

The unemployment rate continued to fall faster for women than for men.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Employment Myths And Realities….

The latest ABS Employment numbers came in better than expected, and with an unemployment number of 4% was better than expected. But are we reading the numbers right, and does it give the full picture. We examine the evidence.

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Real Employment Story

Seasonally adjusted hours worked fell by 8.8 per cent between December 2021 and January 2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The changes in hours worked were more pronounced than for other key indicators, with employment increasing by around 13,000 people, unemployment by 6,000 people and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2 per cent.

But there are deeper reasons why the numbers are the way they are, and today we explore this…. in a word – migration, or the lack of it…!

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Yet More Numberwanging The DFA Daily 20th August 2021

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

In today’s show we look at the latest employment data from the US, and Australia and discuss the implications, and highlight that the numbers tell us less than many think about what is going on. Not least, do people spend less time looking for jobs when the Government hands out more support?

Numberwang is a recurring sketch in Series 1 and 2 of That Mitchell and Webb Look. It is a fictional television series in which the two contestants call out seemingly random numbers which are occasionally told to be Numberwang. Each episode varies slightly, with the basic format remaining each time.

https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-4-6-unemployment-rate-hints-at-whats-possible-but-its-not-the-real-thing-166162

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