US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has confirmed fears that interest rate cuts in the US would be later rather than sooner as inflation remains stubbornly high. If that price pressure persists, the Fed can keep rates steady for “as long as needed,” Powell said. This came after US retail sales figures for March came in much stronger than expected, stoking speculation rates would stay higher for longer.
This is a theme reinforced by the IMF, who published a report, while data form the UK and New Zealand also reconfirmed the stickier story.
The risks to markets and households are rising.
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Higher for longer is back baby, following the latest CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which came out today, for March. It was significantly up on expectations, the third month in a row this has occurred. This signals a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year, or even later into next year.
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Higher for longer is back baby, following the latest CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which came out today, for March. It was significantly up on expectations, the third month in a row this has occurred. This signals a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year, or even later into next year.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In a foreshortened trading week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, notching its best first-quarter performance since 2009 supported by the AI boom and as the rally broadened out beyond tech amid optimism on rate cuts coming soon and data signaling a soft landing for the US economy remains within in reach. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell very slightly. The index was up over 7% for the first quarter.
The S&P 500 benchmark index closed up 0.1 per cent to 5254.35; having touched an intraday high of 5264.85 midafternoon. The Dow advanced 0.1 per cent, losing early momentum for a run at 40,000. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 per cent.
But additional data including the core PCE inflation metric, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure came out on Holiday Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the biggest back-to-back gain in a year. Fourth-quarter core PCE inflation was revised slightly lower. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The FED Speaks After The Bell, As Inflation Holds Higher!
In a foreshortened trading week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, notching its best first-quarter performance since 2009 supported by the AI boom and as the rally broadened out beyond tech amid optimism on rate cuts coming soon and data signaling a soft landing for the US economy remains within in reach. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell very slightly. The index was up over 7% for the first quarter.
The S&P 500 benchmark index closed up 0.1 per cent to 5254.35; having touched an intraday high of 5264.85 midafternoon. The Dow advanced 0.1 per cent, losing early momentum for a run at 40,000. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 per cent.
But additional data including the core PCE inflation metric, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure came out on Holiday Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the biggest back-to-back gain in a year. Fourth-quarter core PCE inflation was revised slightly lower. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market update as normal, we will start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia, and cover the key points in Oil, Gold and Crypto. My aim is to try to integrate the main themes of the week, and point forward to what may happen next.
There were a few main themes, first some key markets are touching all-time highs even if on Friday many markets took a breather, driven by profit-taking after a week of record-setting advances which were fuelled by a series of dovish central bank signals. The US dollar struggled to extend a gain as U.S. yields ticked lower.
But Central banks are still watching for greater certainty on inflation trends, and there is building speculation that the neural interest rate is higher than expected. In addition, the fuzziness in the data flows continues – a problem for central bankers who want to be data dependent, perhaps too data dependent.
The U.S. central bank sharply upgraded its outlook for growth in 2024, and Thursday’s data suggested the U.S. economy remained on solid footing after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February. This suggests the Fed doesn’t need to be in any hurry to cut rates going forward.
Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.
Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.
Its worth noting that overall, the ASX 200, excluding resources, currently trades at 18.5 times forward earnings, which is 40 per cent above its long-run average of 13.5 times, but 12 per cent above the previous peak in May 2007, just before the global financial crisis. And no, this is not just about Commonwealth Bank being at record highs. The median stock on the ASX is also trading at a P/E multiple well above its long-term average.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Uncomfortable Highs And Wonky Data Says Brace, Brace, Brace…
In this week’s market update as normal, we will start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia, and cover the key points in Oil, Gold and Crypto. My aim is to try to integrate the main themes of the week, and point forward to what may happen next.
There were a few main themes, first some key markets are touching all-time highs even if on Friday many markets took a breather, driven by profit-taking after a week of record-setting advances which were fuelled by a series of dovish central bank signals. The US dollar struggled to extend a gain as U.S. yields ticked lower.
But Central banks are still watching for greater certainty on inflation trends, and there is building speculation that the neural interest rate is higher than expected. In addition, the fuzziness in the data flows continues – a problem for central bankers who want to be data dependent, perhaps too data dependent.
The U.S. central bank sharply upgraded its outlook for growth in 2024, and Thursday’s data suggested the U.S. economy remained on solid footing after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February. This suggests the Fed doesn’t need to be in any hurry to cut rates going forward.
Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.
Investors in the coming week will be watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index that will offer the latest read on inflation. The end of the first quarter also could prompt volatility as fund managers adjust their portfolios.
Its worth noting that overall, the ASX 200, excluding resources, currently trades at 18.5 times forward earnings, which is 40 per cent above its long-run average of 13.5 times, but 12 per cent above the previous peak in May 2007, just before the global financial crisis. And no, this is not just about Commonwealth Bank being at record highs. The median stock on the ASX is also trading at a P/E multiple well above its long-term average.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Australian employment soared in February and the jobless rate declined, highlighting the ongoing resilience of the nation’s labor market to restrictive monetary policy according to the latest Numberwang from the ABS. As a result, the currency rose as much as 0.6% after the data while yields on the policy-sensitive three-year government bond climbed to 3.7%. Traders now see a 60% chance of a rate cut in August, down from 80% before the data.
The strong jobs data contrasts with indicators ranging from business and consumer surveys to job vacancies and retail sales that suggest the economy is slowing.
The RBA on Tuesday left all options on the table with regards to rate moves, awaiting more data to show what’s going on. I am not sure this will help much!
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in February, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
And its worth noting that the current ABS labour market data is not matching the weak growth picture in the National Accounts or other second tier labour market data like jobs ads and applicants per job from Seek.
We continue to need to create around 35,000 jobs every month to stop unemployment rising, and of course the latest migration data which also came out today showed a record high net inward flow, of over 600,000.
Perhaps we will see a reversal in the data in March, because frankly the ABS Numberwanging whilst quite majestic, is simply deceptive. We need a much better jobs data compass.
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In a mega week for Central Bank news, after the seminal but small rise from the Bank of Japan into positive territory for the first time in eight years, the all options on the table no change from the RBA, the expected hold from the Bank of England, and the surprise 0.25% cut from the Swiss National Bank, the first such reduction for one of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies since the pandemic abated, we got the fully Monty from the FED, with another no change decision.
The recent poor inflation numbers have only nudged the governors a little in the hawkish direction; it will take more of a pickup in prices to jolt enough members away from three cuts this year, or perhaps less…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In a mega week for Central Bank news, after the seminal but small rise from the Bank of Japan into positive territory for the first time in eight years, the all options on the table no change from the RBA, the expected hold from the Bank of England, and the surprise 0.25% cut from the Swiss National Bank, the first such reduction for one of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies since the pandemic abated, we got the fully Monty from the FED, with another no change decision.
The recent poor inflation numbers have only nudged the governors a little in the hawkish direction; it will take more of a pickup in prices to jolt enough members away from three cuts this year, or perhaps less…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
