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The Fed lifted rates again to 5 to 5.25%, but the press conference did not go to plan and the markets turned to thinking a pivot was likely. Bond yields moved, and concerns about a spreading banking crisis grew, as PacWest said it was looking at options.
Meantime, the FED holds to its view there will be no recession, so no rate cuts.
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The Fed lifted rates again to 5 to 5.25%, but the press conference did not go to plan and the markets turned to thinking a pivot was likely. Bond yields moved, and concerns about a spreading banking crisis grew, as PacWest said it was looking at options.
Meantime, the FED holds to its view there will be no recession, so no rate cuts.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The leading indicators relating to the US economy are screaming Stagflation, as the FED meets this coming week. Yet rates are likely to go higher to tackle rising costs, even as a credit crunch in underway. Not pretty.
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
The leading indicators relating to the US economy are screaming Stagflation, as the FED meets this coming week. Yet rates are likely to go higher to tackle rising costs, even as a credit crunch in underway. Not pretty.
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest inflation data for the US underscored the ongoing inflation problem the FED has, and while the markets are hoping for a pause, or cut, on the latest numbers this is unlikely. The battle to control inflation is far from won.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
In the latest market update, we look at stronger economic data from the US driving inflation and FED rates higher. We also cover Europe, Asia and Australia. Risks seem elevated with regards to future market action! A wake-up call to Bulls?
CONTENTS
0:00 Introduction
1:30 Earnings and PEG
6:24 PCE Read
9:45 New Home Sales
11:39 US Markets
14:15 Oil Prices And the USD
17:10 European Markets
19:35 Asian Markets
21:20 Australian Market
23:54 Crypto
24:11 Summary and Conclusion
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Stocks have enjoyed an upbeat start to the year on hopes that the Fed will abandon its hawkish rhetoric and pilot the economy to a soft landing. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate to a peak of 5.1% in July, largely in line with the forecasts of Fed officials.
Many in the markets are spinning a yarn about how the inflation rate will drift lower – bobbing on the wind like a snowflake, melting away to a nice round 2%. Well, I have to tell you, I think that snowflake is in the eye of a hurricane – literally the calm before the storm. This story of a quiet adjustment is a best misleading, at worse an opportunity for others to transfer risk to the unsuspecting and make money off their backs.
A parallel to those property market “experts” who keep saying the property market is about to recover and you should buy now.
All this is fiction, as the macroeconomic backcloth points to something else, and much more destructive – soon the hurricane will be in full force. It is likely that the US economy will be in recession by the second half of 2023. This flips upside down the widely held belief that the 1st half of this year would be weak, but the second half would see a strong rebound in stocks and GDP. With the US there, other economies including Australia will get caught in the downdraft.
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While some market analysts are calling a significant rise as inflation is crushed, others are more negative, seeing a potential drop in the markets, before a pivot – but not for another year or so. Investment sentiment is out of line….
So, the question is, are further market falls likely? How low will corporate earnings go?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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The FED lifted by the expected 25 basis points overnight. In the press conference he was still underscoring the need to strangle inflation but was also sanguine on the markets – which traders took as a positive sign.
That said, the disconnect between the FED and the markets continues, suggesting further short-term strength, before reality sets in, or the FED really backflips.
Disinflation is now the new watch word!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market update we as always start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia. Markets have started to look through the recession fears it seems, banking on the Fed slowing its rake hikes, and reversing later in 2023.
Yet the signals are still mixed, and earnings are clearly under pressure in many market sectors. But it does seem to me to be a question about seeing the wood for the trees. The bigger trend on markets still is pointing lower, despite the short term moves higher. We are not, I think out of the woods yet… remembering Central Banks over nearly 20 years have tried to engineer growth through massive stimulation and debt, and economies have been distorted beyond belief. As support is removed, asset values are still over done, and the cost of debt rises.
The Dow cut losses to close higher Friday, as investors bought the early-day dip in banks following a string of better-than-expected results, though concerns about a weaker economy linger. In the end the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their highest levels in a month on Friday, leaving the S&P 500 up 4.2% so far in 2023.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.7% and the Dow rose 2%. The Nasdaq increased 4.8% in its biggest weekly percentage gain since Nov. 11. The CBOE Volatility index -Wall Street’s fear gauge -closed at a one-year low. The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:15 US Markets
4:10 Consumer Sentiment
5:59 US Dollar
7:05 Oil
7:30 Best Stocks From Goldman
10:30 Europe
12:55 Global Growth Slowing
14:00 Gold
14:15 Asia
15:35 Australia
18:30 Crypto SEC Action
20:00 Bitcoin
20:25 Summary and Conclusion
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
