Latest DFA Survey – Drilling Down On Overseas Investors

Over the next few days we will be posting the results of our latest household surveys. We are going to start with the hot investment segment, and look specifically at the vexed question of the proportion of overseas investors buying investment property for the first time. This is a tough data set to capture, because by definition such households are hard to contact, or prefer not to talk and they do not use an Australian mortgage. However, we devised a proxy set of questions focussing on funding sources, and as a result we now have a view of the proportion of first time investors in the market, and the overseas mix.

Taking the January data as a starting point, ABS tells us that there were 5,961 loans to owner occupied purchasers. In addition, we identified a further 3,661 first time buyers getting a mortgage for investment purposes. These amount to 35% of loans who are not identified as first time buyers in the ABS data, but are in the overall loan volume data. 8%, or 850, require no mortgage at all, and do not show in the mortgage statistics. We would need reliable purchase transfer records to get at the true picture, something not readily available.

FTBFootprintMar2015From our surveys we teased out the funding options that first time buyers went with. 36% of deals used an interest only mortgage, 41% used a standard repayment mortgage, but the rest, 850 transactions (8%) did not require mortgage funding from an Australian bank but rather used other sources including parents, or were an overseas purchase.

FTBFundingStatusMar2015 We can dissect these purchases based on funding. About 125 were local purchasers without finance, over 200 were financed by parents and under 100 financed from other sources. However the most significant number was the 415 by overseas investors, using funding from offshore.

NonMortgagedInvFTBMar2015

Looking at these 850 transactions through the lens of our surveys, we found that more than 550 were in NSW, more than 200 in VIC and a few sprinkled across the other states. This equates to about 4% of all first time buyers and 9.2% of investor first time buyers. Enough to more than move the dial, especially given the concentration in Sydney.

NonMortgagedFTBStateMar2015  Next time we will look at investor motivations, and future plans. We think the investment housing boom is likely to continue to run, as more investors get the bug.

Foreign Investors Fees Still In The Air

Speaking on ABC Insiders this morning Josh Frydenberg, Assistant Treasurer made the point that the foreign investor regulations, recently announced were open for consultation, and that a number of issues had yet to be resolved. For example, should a foreign investor pay the fee each time they apply to purchase a property (so bidding on multiple properties would mean multiple fees)? Or should they pay one fee to cover multiple potential transactions? If they are not successful in purchasing the target property, is the fee refundable? He appeared to be advocating paying the fee before putting a bid in, one fee for multiple bids, and refundable if unsuccessful.

However to decide, we need to know if the fee is simply to cover the cost of appropriate agency administration, or whether it is designed to be a barrier to transact. It is not clear for the available material which is envisaged. Administration would be a combination of assessing the credential of the individual (so once per person), and also the property (so once per property). Also, if unsuccessful, is it appropriate to refund the entire fee? After all, the work needs to be done before allowing a bid (else if you only pay after a successful transaction, what happens if you were declined subsequently, once you have contracted to purchase?)

He also confirmed there had been no action taken on a residential purchase by a foreigner since 2006, adequate data was not being collected, and cross agency communication was not effective.

Clearly more work needs to be done to design this right. DFA suggests that a foreign investor should be able to make application for approval to purchase property in Australia. This should be a licence, which needs to be maintained and renewed from time to time. Then there would be a fee payable on each property application. This latter fee would be refundable in the case of an unsuccessful sale.  It would also reduce the red tape so some extent.

 

Foreign Property Purchase Rules To Be Enforced

The report on foreign property buyers is out, and the recommendations are significant, and the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) criticised.

The current framework relating to foreign purchases of Australian housing will be retained to encourage investment in new dwellings and increase housing supply. But there are a bunch of recommendations, which cover the bases quite well in terms of enforcement. First, there is the intent to creation of a national land title register to record the citizenship and residency status of real estate buyers. This means that data on residential status will be checked during purchase. Next, professionals involved in real estate transfers (such as lawyers, transfer agents, developers, real estate agents), and family members who knowingly assist foreign buyers to breach the rules will be fined. There would be greater data sharing between the Immigration Department and FIRB to detect offenders. Foreign property investors will pay a fee, to fund FIRB’s investigation and enforcement operations, and the Government would collect any capital gains made by foreign investors who illegally purchased established residential properties. Finally, penalties for breaches of the rules will be linked to the value of the property.

Liberal chair, Kelly O’Dwyer said:

“The Committee has undertaken a thorough review of the foreign investment framework as it applies to residential real estate. We have found that the framework itself is appropriate and strikes the right balance in terms of encouraging beneficial foreign investment in the housing market, however its application is severely lacking.”

“I regard the current internal processes at the Treasury and FIRB as a systems failure. Most concerning is that sanctions seem to be virtually non-existent. There have been no prosecutions since 2006 and no divestment orders since 2007. Suggestions by officials, that this is due to complete compliance with the rules is simply not credible. The data on foreign purchases of Australian houses and apartments is inadequate, making policy evaluations very difficult”…

“Australians must have confidence that the rules, including those that apply to existing homes, are being enforced. Our inquiry revealed, that as it stands today, they could not have that confidence.”

“This report makes 12 common sense recommendations to Government to enable proper enforcement of the existing framework for foreign investment in Australian housing; provide extra resources to do so; and accurately measure the impact of foreign investment by collecting accurate and timely data. These practical measures are critical in order to ensure that foreign investment in Australian housing continues to serve our national interest for future decades.”

This is a good step in increasing transparency in this important area.

Foreign Property Buyers Are Market Significant – nab

The results from the National Australia Bank’s latest residential property survey shows that foreign buyers are flocking to buy Australian property, snapping up one out of every six new homes – and that number is set to get higher.

NABSUrveyForeign buyers were more prevalent in new housing markets in Q3. Foreign buyers accounted for 16.8% of total demand (about 1 in 6 of all buyers), and this share is tipped to rise further next year (17.3%). Foreign buyers were more active in all states, especially VIC where they accounted for an estimated 24.8% of demand (or 1 in 4 sales). In contrast, local investors were less active in Q3, with their share of national demand falling to 27% (32.5% in Q2). Local investors accounted for a smaller share of demand in all states.

Foreign buyers were slightly more active in established property markets in Q3, with their share of total national demand rising to 8.2% (7.2% in Q2). Foreign buyer demand for established property increased in all states except NSW. VIC led the way, with foreigners accounting for a record high 11.5% of established property demand.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster said first-home buyers were not competing with foreign investors for property, because foreign buyers opt for high-end apartments – “they’re not buying cheap stuff”. It’s local investors creating the most difficulty for first-timers, he said, spurred on by low interest rates, superannuation changes and a tax system that encourages property investment.

While there are restrictions on what properties foreign investors can buy, the Foreign Investment Review Board has been criticised for failing to enforce those rules and a parliamentary inquiry into foreign investment in residential real estate is due to deliver its recommendations in November.