Home Prices – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is It Inter-Generational War Then?

OK folks a rant warning. It seems you are better placed financially and socially, if you are old with property compared with being young with none or a massive mortgage! And its structural thanks to bad policy across the board. One reason why younger people are turning away from the major Uniparty.

If you are one of the many thousands of younger Australians struggling to try and get on the property ladder, you will already know there is a war on youth, thanks to mass immigration, a permanent per capita recession, the rent shock, the energy shock, unaffordable homes, crushed wages, rampaging mortgage repayments, destroyed and expensive education, plus a ruined built environment a wrecked natural environment, oh and a dying planet.

But Older Australians are in a completely different world. CBA says Australians are freeing up more of their wallet for discretionary purchases with a focus on value and convenience, according to the latest CommBank iQ Cost of Living Insights analysis. Overall spending continues to trail inflation, up by just 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year.

The combination of higher prices and mortgage rates has pushed the percentage of median household disposable income spent on mortgage repayments on a median-priced home to a record high of 50.6% nationally.

But on another planet, far, far away, cash sales in property surged 14 per cent to $138 billion across NSW, Victoria and Queensland over the past financial year, fuelled by wealthy downsizers, retirees and investors, a new report shows.

So it’s better to be old, with property, than young with no property or a massive mortgage, and the intergenerational gap is continuing to grow. Trouble is, unless things change trends are set to deteriorate further. Sure if you have parents with property who will fall off the perch sometime in the future, you may gat a look in, but if not, permanent renting is the order of the day. So much for the Australian dream of property ownership.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is It Inter-Generational War Then?

00:00 / 00:19:06

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks show Edwin, our property insider and I look at the latest designs for higher density housing and highlight some important questions for prospective purchasers and governments. It won’t end well.

And we look at the relative performance of markets, comparing Sydney and Melbourne. What is the media pushing, and what is the reality?

And of course we look at the latest numbers and our tips for the week.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:11:44

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In our first post Trump result Rant, Edwin and I consider the implications for property as rates higher for longer seem to be the order of the day. But some markets will perhaps still be buoyant because demand is so strong. Meantime we also look at how the property portals are being flexible with the truth, and we chat about people making poor property decisions, because they assumed….

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:16:31

The Property Price Downturn Is Spreading….

I have been saying for some time that some property markets are on the turn. More evidence of this has now been published. And while aggregate data is averaged, CoreLogic’s October report does highlights a modest rise in national home values, but easing annual growth, and shifting market dynamics across different regions and property segments with wider falls.

They say that nationally, their Home Value Index recorded a 0.3% rise in October, but it was driven by mid-sized capitals like Perth, which saw a 1.4% increase, whereas Sydney saw a -0.1% decline in home values, alongside declines in Darwin (-1.0%), Canberra (-0.3%), Melbourne (-0.2%), as well as regional Victoria (-0.2%) in the month.

We also see that upper quartile house values are falling more than lower quartile values, which recorded a rise. The trend of stronger performance in the affordable market segment is consistent across capital cities.

A combination of less borrowing capacity and broader affordability challenges, as well as a higher-than-average share of investors and first home buyers in the market is the most likely explanation for stronger conditions across the lower value cohorts of the market.

Slower growth in home values has been accompanied by a rise in advertised stock levels. Based on a rolling four week count of listings to October 27th, advertised inventory has increased 12.7% since the end of winter across the combined capitals, with the largest increase occurring in Perth where listings are 20.6% higher, albeit from an exceptionally low base.

Alongside the rise in advertised supply, the number of home sales looks to be fading. Estimates for capital city sales activity over the three months ending October were down -7.5% from three months earlier and -1.6% lower than at the same time last year.

My analysis shows that more investors are under water from a cash flow perspective, and we are seeing more investors jumping ship, while others are buying.

All up given the higher for longer trajectory of both inflation and interest rates, I suspect we will see continued weakness in several markets into 2025.

But as always we need to go granular to see the detail across locations and property types. I will be sharing some of my mapping on this in the next few days.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Property Price Downturn Is Spreading….

00:00 / 00:09:36

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

The latest news from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest moves from Government (including erecting statues!!) news from China, and the latest data. Things continue to show a gap between strategy and reality, as negative gearing questions emerge again!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:20:14

Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020.

But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and has signalled that significant further cuts would be made over the next 18 month. Business confidence took a leg up, bouncing to a net 51% positive from just 6% in response, banking on the end of the recession which has gripped the country.

Net Migration is also falling away rapidly, according to statistics New Zealand, and we are seeing more property coming on market with inventories up by 30% compared with last year, while sales volumes are down compared with last year and more property being subsequently withdrawn from market failing to find a buyer at their desired asking price.

So net net, it seems likely that as we go into spring and summer in New Zealand, demand might be higher thanks to lower rates but offset by lower migration, while supply is higher but transaction volumes are lower. Which begs the question, are we seeing the property market turning?

Well, the latest report, or should that be marketing document from the REINZ for August shows “signs of increased confidence, optimism and activity compared to the previous year. While the overall sales volume slightly declined, several regions reported notable increases in activity, and year-on-year listing numbers continue to rise”.

All up, its probably too soon to talk about an uptick in property values, but there may well be more property coming on to the market, and an uptick in sales to boot. Further rate cuts will help, and of course the loser regulations on investment property may also assist, but migration driven demand is falling.

Its probably way too early to declare victory, for now. REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said August provided a sense of confidence and positivity to the property market. I would remain more cautious. Auckland still seems to be more exposed while some South Island markets though smaller are more positive. And there is considerable uncertainty ahead.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?

00:00 / 00:08:34

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! – An Albo Special!

In this weeks edition property insider Edwin Almeida looks around Albo’s investment property which is on the market to highlight some important issues around building inspections, plus we discuss the Misinformation Bill while we still can and also look at a horrid case of underquoting.

Truth is, whether you are a vendor looking to sell, or a buyer wanting to buy, it is vital to do due diligence on the way through. Not doing so can cost thousands!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant! - An Albo Special!

00:00 / 01:18:00

Listen, You Can Hear Home Prices Falling!

The mythology that home prices always rise has been busted before, because the high-level indices which are the fixation of the media, ignore the real variations, at a granular level.

The latest data from Corelogic shows that at the aggregate level there were small falls in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne, while there were stronger rises in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth (especially Perth) and a small rise in Sydney.

But now, the people at Corelogic who release one of the main indicators of prices included in their Housing Chart Pack, the September ‘Chart of the Month’ which takes a granular look at value falls over the three months to August from a quarterly study of 3,655 suburbs across the country and found that house prices in almost one-third (29.2 per cent) had fallen. In comparison, in the three months to August last year prices had dropped in 17.2 per cent of suburbs. They say that Melbourne (79.1%) and regional Victorian suburbs (73.8%) made up the majority of falls over the quarter. Values also decreased across more than half of the suburbs in Hobart (54.3%), Darwin (51.2%), and Canberra (51.6%), while all suburbs in Perth saw values rise over the quarter.

The company said declines were becoming more common as high interest rates as well as cost of living and affordability challenges continued.

So, what’s ahead then? Well of course this depends on the trajectory of interest rates, remembering that the current higher rates have depressed the typical borrowing capacity of the first-time buyer by as much as 40% from just a couple of years back. Inflation in Australia remains significantly higher than in many other countries, so the RBA is sticking to its view there will be no rate cuts anytime soon.

To try and highlight the potential sensitivities of interest rates, we run three scenarios, and look three years out, to illustrate the sensitivities across units and houses by state.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Listen, You Can Hear Home Prices Falling!

00:00 / 00:18:30

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More this week from our property insider Edwin Almedia, on the dynamics of the markets, as listing rise and interest rates stay high. We also look at the battle between the RBA and The Treasurer, and at the Grenfell Tower UK report which really spotlights the severe defects across the building system and which is directly relevant to Australia too!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:22:00